Research interests: Canadian economy and public policy; international trade; fiscal policy; labour.
Academic publications
Superstar Search: Studying the Current and Potential Populations of Canadian Exporters and Foreign Direct Investors Abroad, Canadian Public Policy, June 2021 (with Beiling Yan) (CPP link)
Do Balanced Budget Laws Matter in a Recession?, Journal of Public Budgeting and Finance, May 2017 (Journal link) (Ungated paper) (with Haizhen Mou and Michael Atkinson)
The Use and Effectiveness of Fiscal Rules in Canadian Provinces, Canadian Public Policy 39(1), March 2013, pp. 45-70 (CPP Link) (Ungated paper)
Lost in Transition: The Costs and Consequences of Sectoral Labour Adjustment, Canadian Journal of Economics 44(4), November 2011, pp. 1264-1296 (CJE Link) (Ungated paper)
The Dynamics of Sectoral Labour Adjustment, Queen's Economics Department Working Paper No. 1141, November 2007 (Paper)
A Macroeconomic Study of the Costs, Consequences and Policy Implications of Sectoral Labour Reallocation, Queen's University, August 2008 (PhD Thesis)
Selected research at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce
Canadian cities' exposure to U.S. tariffs, February 2025 (Report)
Canada-U.S. trade tracker, January 2025 (Dashboard)
Partners in Prosperity: Exploring the significance of Canada-U.S. trade , October 2024 (by Trevor Tombe Report)
Local Spending Tracker, May 2023 (Report, Launch Dashboard)
Business Conditions Terminal, launched April 2023 (Launch Terminal, Backgrounder)
Economic Outlook for 2023, Conference Board of Canada Economic Matters, December 2022 (Podcast)
Canada's New Workplace Mobility Trends, November 2022 (Report, Launch Dashboard)
Canadian Survey on Business Conditions; Reports (Quarterly, e.g. 2022 Q3); Business Insights Tracker (Launch dashboard)
Selected research at Export Development Canada (EDC)
State of Canadian Trade, Presentation at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute Conference, February 2021 (Audio podcast, Slides)
COVID-19: Impacts on Canadian Industries, April 2020 (EDC blog, report, CABE webinar, slides)
Writing History in Real Time: An Initial Review of the Literature on the Economic Impacts of COVID-19, June 2020 (Report with Jerry Wang, Mohammed Rajpar and Michael Borish)
The Untapped Potential to Grow Canada’s Commercial Service exports, March 2020 (Report with Beiling Yan)
Selected commentaries for EDC
Record Rebound in Canadian Trade Confidence, June 2021 (Blog)
Surveying the Good and Bad of COVID-19, May 2021 (Blog with Jen Topping and Jerry Wang)
CUSMA relief shifts to worries about global protectionism and tariffs, January 2019 (Blog)
How Growth in India is Opening Doors for Canadian Business, October 2018 (Blog)
The Canada-EU relationship by the numbers, September 2018 (Blog)
The Drive to Diversify, August 2018 (Blog with Andrew DiCapua)
U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs: How did we get here?, June 2018 (Blog)
All eyes on NAFTA negotiations, April 2018 (Blog)
Are Canadian firms worried about NAFTA? If so, now what?, January 2018 (Blog)
Publications directed for EDC
Trade Confidence Index (Report)
Global Economic Outlook (Report)
Global Export Forecast (Report)
Canadian Economic Recovery Tracker (Report)
COVID-19 Impact Surveys (Report)
Markets of Opportunity for Canadian Exporters (Report by Meena Aier)
Canada's Pandemic Trade Performance: Goods; Services (by Meena Aier)
Understanding Canada's Goods Exporters (Report by Jerry Wang)
The Outlook for Canada's Private Sector (Report by Michael Borish)
Policy research at the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP)
Redesigning Canadian Trade Policies for New Global Realities, IRPP Art of the State, Vol. 6, edited by Stephen Tapp, Ari Van Assche and Robert Wolfe
(Volume website) (Editors' overview of research findings) (Awarded the Doug Purvis Memorial Prize in 2018)
A Road Map for More Inclusive Canadian Trade Policy, IRPP chapter, October 2017 (Editors' concluding chapter) (with Ari Van Assche and Robert Wolfe)
Going Global: Canadian SME Trade and Emerging Markets, IRPP chapter, November 2016 (Chapter) (with Sui Sui)
The Potential to Grow Canada-India Economic Linkages: Over-sold or Over-looked? , IRPP Study No. 52, August 2015 (Study) (Policy Options) (with Someshwar Rao)
Inequality in Canada: Conference Report, March 2014
Papers directed for IRPP
Does Canada Need Trade Adjustment Assistance? , by Dmitry Lysenko and Saul Schwartz, December 2015 (Study)
Canadian Policy Prescriptions for Dutch Disease, by Robin Boadway, Serge Coulombe and Jean-Francois Tremblay, October 2013 (Article ) (Op-ed)
The Resurgence of Industrial Policy and What it Means for Canada, by Dan Ciuriak and John Curtis, June 2013 (Article)(Op-ed) (Podcast) (Globe coverage)
Selected commentaries for IRPP
Budget 2016: A different approach to what ails us, March 2016 (Policy Options)
Deficit mania: Stuck in the 1990s again, March 2016 (Policy Options)
Not so fast on cost-shared infrastructure spending, January 2016 (Policy Options)
A better way to assess Canada's short-run economic activity, September 2015 (Policy Options)
Buying votes, August 2015 (Policy Options)
Budget 2015: A modest proposal to find fiscal room, April 2015 (Policy Options)
What's the Economist Party's platform?, February 2015 (Policy Options)
Using Twitter to Infer Think Tank Ideology, January 2015 (Policy Options)
Competing for Talent, July 2014 (Policy Options)
Depending on Data, June 2014 (Policy Options)
Three Key Challenges for Canada's Economy in 2014, December 2013 (Globe op-ed)
The Shrinking Federal Government, November 2013 (Globe op-ed)
The Canada-EU Trade Deal: A Job Creator and a Job Killer, October 2013 (Globe op-ed)
Ottawa's Proposed Balanced Budget Law, October 2013 (Globe op-ed) (Blog)
The Decline of Canadian Economics, September 2013 (Commentary with Emery and Simpson) (Globe op-ed)(Simpson-Emery CPP Paper)
Back to the Future: Canada's Puzzling 'New' Debt Target, September 2013 (Commentary)(Globe op-ed)
PBO 2.0 How to Seize the Opportunity, July 2013 (Policy Options)(Globe op-ed)
Budget 2013 and Ottawa's New Activism, May 2013 (Policy Options)
Policy Options podcasts:
Canadian trade policy at a risky crossroads, May 2017 (Podcast)
Budget 2017: Live analysis from the lockup, March 2017 (Podcast)
Breaking down Budget 2016, March 2016 (Podcast)
Selected policy research at the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO)
An Assessment of Canada's Labour Market Performance, October 2012 (Paper) (Corak post)
Federal Cost Estimate of Bill C-399: Volunteer Tax Credit, September 2012 (Paper)
Cost Estimates of Proposed Tax Measures to Encourage Charitable Donations of Assets, May 2012 (Paper)
Fiscal Sustainability Reports: September 2011 (Paper); February 2010 (Paper)
Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Canada, Banca d’Italia Public Finance Workshop: Rules and Institutions for Fiscal Policy after the Crisis, Conference Proceedings, March 2011 (Paper) (Complete volume)
Canadian Experiences with Fiscal Consolidations and Fiscal Rules, October 2010 (Paper)
Canadian Labour Market Developments: Recession Impacts, Recent Trends and Future Outlook, July 2009 (Paper)
PBO Perspectives on Budget 2009, The 2009 Federal Budget: Challenge, Response and Retrospect, John Deutsch Institute Conference Proceedings, Edited by Beach, Dahlby and Hobson, November 2010 (Paper)
Key Information for the Government's Progress Reports to Assist Parliamentary Monitoring and Oversight of Budget 2009, February 2009 (Paper)
Pre-Budget Economic and Fiscal Briefing, January 2009 (Paper)
Revisiting the Spectre of Deflation, December 2008 (Paper)
Economic and Fiscal Assessment, November 2008 (Paper)
The Government of Canada's Economic and Fiscal Forecasting Process, November 2008 (Paper)
Research at Finance Canada
Understanding Rules of Origin, Department of Finance Working Paper 2007-05, June 2007 (Paper)
Policy research at the C.D. Howe Institute
Exploring a Medium-Term Approach for Canada's Fiscal Policy, Draft, November 2006 (Paper)
How Canada Can Improve Its Development Aid: Lessons From Other Aid Agencies, C.D. Howe Commentary 232, April 2006 (Paper) (with Danielle Goldfarb)
Squeezing Gaps Shut: Responsible Reforms to Federal-Provincial Fiscal Relations, C.D. Howe Commentary 225, December 2005 (Paper) (with Finn Poschmann)
Research at the Bank of Canada
Using Real-Time Data to Evaluate Bank of Canada Forecasts of Real GDP Growth, August 2003 (Abstract)