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In my role within the forecasting and policy modelling division, I primarily focus on developing and applying the ECB-BASE and ECB-MC models, key semi-structural frameworks at the ECB. The ECB-BASE model incorporates explicit expectations to systematically explore the interactions among crucial macroeconomic factors, aiding in macroeconomic forecasting and policy simulations. The ECB-MC model, covering the five largest euro area economies, serves similar forecasting and policy analysis purposes,.
In my role within the forecasting and policy modelling division, I primarily focus on developing and applying the ECB-BASE and ECB-MC models, key semi-structural frameworks at the ECB. The ECB-BASE model incorporates explicit expectations to systematically explore the interactions among crucial macroeconomic factors, aiding in macroeconomic forecasting and policy simulations. The ECB-MC model, covering the five largest euro area economies, serves similar forecasting and policy analysis purposes,.
DOCUMENTATION
DOCUMENTATION
Working paper on the ECB-BASE is available in Introducing ECB-BASE: The blueprint of the new ECB semi-structural model for the euro area
Working paper on rational expectations in the ECB-BASE is available in ECB-(RE)BASE: Heterogeneity in expectation formation and macroeconomic dynamics
EXAMPLE CODE
EXAMPLE CODE
Explore presentation that delves into semi-structural modeling using Dynare, offering insights into its application and benefits via a simple example. Find presentation here:
Dropbox link
For access to the package code, please visit my public GitLab repository: Access the Dynare Modeling Package
RELATED WORK
RELATED WORK
ECB‑BASIR is an extension of the ECB-BASE model which addresses specific features of the COVID-19 crisis by combining a standard pandemic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with a semi-structural large-scale macroeconomic model. Have a look at our recent Economic Bulletin box , ECB-WP 2431 and Modelling pandemic risks for policy analysis and forecasting
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