Research

Working Paper:

Abstract: We examine the transmission mechanisms of the Federal Reserve's announcements to equity markets worldwide. We propose a model that explores the monetary policy spillover effects through central bank coordination and production networks. We estimate the model using spatial panel econometric methods with interactive fixed effects breaking down the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks into four distinct components: 1) interest rate effects, 2) direct effects on domestic demand, 3) network effects through international demand, and 4) risk premium effects. Our findings highlight the significant contributions of all effects, with the risk premium and direct effects being the most important.


Abstract: When debt obligations have a fixed nominal value, a monetary expansion reduces the real burden of existing debt and boosts firm performance, even when firms reside in foreign countries. By investigating Mexican and Brazilian publicly listed companies with substantial dollar-denominated debt, we show that a more dollar-indebted firm experiences higher increases in equity value, capital expenditure, and sales after a U.S. monetary expansion, especially when such foreign-denominated debt has long maturity. Moreover, we find that a larger net export position amplifies the responses of dollar-indebted firms to U.S. monetary shocks.


Abstract: Detecting data manipulation in the Qing dynasty (1644-1912) reveals that such cheating behavior has persisted in modern China, for centuries.  Qing prefectural officials were responsible for assembling local grain price data. We use the fact that grain prices are seasonal and cannot stay constant for a prolonged period as an indicator for Qing data manipulation. Using the instrumental variable approach, we find that Qing data quality reliably predicts data misreporting and exaggeration in modern China. We also identify that persistence was higher in more affluent places, like treaty port and coastal areas, where cheating can lead to higher rewards. slides




Published and Forthcoming Research Papers: