The Evolution of Unprocessed Food Inflation in Turkey: an Exploratory Study on Select Products.(with Gökhan Özertan and Hasan Tekgüç). 2022. New Perspectives on Turkey. 1–26.
Abstract
Food price increases stem from economic, agricultural, and political factors. Understanding the dynamics behind the food price formation process and assessing how potential factors contribute to food price changes will significantly affect policies formulated to manage food price increases. High food inflation rates have been a chronic problem in Turkey over the last decade, with unprocessed food prices rising faster than general price levels. In this article, we use exploratory analyses based on economic principles rather than econometric analyses. First, our results indicate that exchange rates are strongly associated with domestic food prices due to dependence on imported inputs. Second, deep-dive analyses on select products show that global price movements and pass-through prices from producer to consumer are not solely responsible for price increases.
Balance Sheet Effects of Foreign Currency Debt and Real Exchange Rate on Corporate Investment: Evidence from Turkey. 2021. Emerging Markets Review, Volume47,
Abstract
I analyze the balance sheet channels of depreciation of the Turkish non-financial corporations for 2003–2015. Having constructed a novel, hand-collected firm-level dataset on the composition and term structure of foreign currency assets and liabilities, I show that foreign currency debt and mismatch has a significant negative balance sheet effect on capital investment following a depreciation. The results remain same even after controlling for foreign currency assets and exports. This implies that the contractionary net worth effect of depreciation dominates its expansionary competitiveness effect. The result is more pronounced for the firms with short-term foreign currency exposures.
Türkiye’de Gıda Enflasyonun Gelişimine Dair Kısa Bir Not (with Gökhan Özertan and Hasan Tekgüç) 2020. İktisat ve Toplum. Sayı:118.
Türkiye’de Gıda Enflasyonunun Gelişimi: Seçilmiş Ürünler Üzerine Bir Çalışma (with Gökhan Özertan and Hasan Tekgüç) 2020. Yayınlanmamış Denizbank Reporu.
Özet
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki işlenmemiş gıda enflasyonunun son 15 yıldaki gelişimini seçilen ürün grupları üzerinden anlaşılır bir şekilde incelemektir. Bu inceleme için son dönemlerde sürekli artış eğiliminde olan ve enflasyon sepetinde görece önemli yer tutan ürünler seçilmiş ve bu ürünlerin fiyatlarındaki değişimin dönemsel olarak analizi yapılmıştır.