My research is primarily focused on Trend Inflation; Monetary policy; Frictions on expectations and survey-based forecasts; Monte Carlo and Bayesian inference; Quantitative methods; Unemployment and Labor; Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC); Macroeconomic DSGE models; Effects of the Zero Lower Bound on interest rates.
Following is a list of selected papers. For a complete list, visit my Ideas/Repec Homepage
Articles in Refereed Journals
Monetary policy, trend inflation, and unemployment volatility, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 50(4) (Jun 2018): pages 637-673 (Working Paper Version)
Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models, Journal of Monetary Economics 67 (Oct 2014): pages 33-46 (Working Paper Version)
Work in Progress
“Are New Keynesian Models Useful When Trend Inflation is Not Very Low?”, with Hashmat Khan, presented at the 2024 NBER SI Conference (Monetary Economics).
“Beating the 'pros' with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecast”, with Waldyr D. Areosa and Carlos V. Carvalho, presented at the 2024 CEBRA Annual Meeting, 2023 NBER-NSF SBIES Conference, and 2020 World Congress of the Econometric Society.
"Precautionary Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," presented at the 2019 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, and 8th annual BIS CCA research conference.
“CBDC design, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation”
Selected Refereed Policy Papers
Labor Markets in Heterogeneous Sectors, Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 421 (2016), Presented at the Seventh Annual BIS CCA Research Conference on "Inflation dynamics: the role of labour markets, productivity and globalization".
Revisiting the Bayesian FFBS Method for Mixed Frequency Inference, previously called “Not Just Another Mixed Frequency Paper”, with Angelo M. Fasolo. Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 400 (2015). Presented at the 2019 NBER-NSF SBIES Conference.
A Tale Of Three Gaps: Unemployment, Capacity Utilization and Output, with Arnildo Correa. Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 339 (2013).
The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity, with Mirta S. Bugarin, Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 121 (2006).
Targets and Inflation Dynamics, with Waldyr Areosa, Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 100 (2005).
Grants
Fulbright Foreign Student Program for PhD study in International Economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, Sept. 2007 – Sept. 2011.
Awards
Best paper and winner of the 2017 Brazilian Econometric Society Award (Macroeconomics Cathegory): Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and Unemployment Volatility.
Best paper and winner of the 2016 CEMLA's Central Bank Award Rodrigo Gómez: Not Just Another Mixed Frequency Paper, with Angelo M. Fasolo.
Best paper and winner of the Central Bank of Brazil Best Working Paper (Economics Cathegory)2016: Not Just Another Mixed Frequency Paper, with Angelo M. Fasolo.
Second best paper of the 2015 CNI Economics Award (Brazilian Manufacturing Cathegory): Labor Markets in Heterogeneous Sectors.
Best paper and winner of the 2014 Finance Ministery Economics Award (Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics and Finance Cathegory): A Tale of Three Gaps: Unemployment, Capacity Utilization and Output, with Arnildo S. Correa.