Prediction markets have been in practical use both in private and public settings. The panelists will share their observations on how well practical experience matches expectations from theory:
did participants behave as expected by theory?
when they did not, can we fix the theory to explain their behavior? Do these fixes preserve the desirable properties of prediction markets?
what is the best way to interpret the results?
what are the most urgent issues to develop for future prediction markets?
Confirmed participants:
David Pennock, Microsoft Research NYC; founder of Microsoft Prediction Lab.
David Rothschild, Microsoft Research NYC; founder of Microsoft Prediction Lab and PredictWise.
Goran Radanovic, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL); researcher at Swissnoise.
Moderator: John Horton, New York University.