Uncertainty shocks and monetary policy rules in a small open economy (2025). Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 57 , 2025 , e18. [Data Repository]
Inefficient Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy (2024). Economic Modelling, Volume 135, 106720. [Data Repository]
The Role of Socioeconomic Status in Shaping Macroeconomic Beliefs of Indian Households. (2022). With Vidya Kamate (RBI), Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 57, Issue No. 29, 16 July 2022.
An alternate to survey methods to measure work from home. (2021). With Mohit Sharma (CORD) and Xavier Estupinan (ILO). Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 56, Issue No. 18, 01 May 2021.
[Supplementary Files] [PDF] [Spanish Version]
Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Labor supply, Wages and Gross Value Added in India. (2020). With Xavier Estupian (ILO), Mohit Sharma (CORD) and Bharti Birla (ILO). The Indian Economic Journal, 68(4), 572-592. DOI link] [PDF: Accepted Version] [Technical Appendix] [Spanish Version]
Media/ Policy Coverage: Times of India Economic Survey (2020-21)
Terms of Trade Shocks and Monetary Policy in India. (2018). With Chetan Ghate (ISI Delhi) and Debdulal Mallick (Deakin University). Computational Economics, Vol. 51, Issue 1, January 2018, pages 75-121. [Dynare Code]
Related publication: LiveMint article IGC Blog
Improving tax revenues in the emerging markets: A Laffer curve analysis. [with Snigdha Kalra (IGIDR)] Link
Abstract: This paper explores the possible ways in which the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can improve their tax-to-GDP ratio using a theoretical framework. We do this using a Laffer curve analysis at the balanced growth path. We develop a closed-economy discrete-time neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents, and three sectors: households, firms, and the government. This model is calibrated for a typical EMDE and it incorporates two well-documented features that limit their tax capacity. The first feature we model is the presence of a large proportion of the economy that neither pays nor files taxes. To address this, our model includes heterogeneous agents, represented by Ricardian and non-Ricardian households. Non-Ricardian households belong to the informal sector and are entirely exempt from taxes, while Ricardian households may choose to comply with tax obligations, creating a partially endogenous framework for tax evasion. The second critical feature is the relative weakness of institutions in the EMDEs as compared to the advanced economies (AEs). We incorporate aspects such as the probability of audits, penalties for evasion, and the culture of corruption in a minimalist way to capture the essence of the realities of weak institutions. We derive the expression for the Laffer curve for three types of taxes: the labour income tax, the capital income tax, and the consumption tax. We find that the fiscal policies attuned towards bringing a higher percentage of agents under the ambit of tax collection - despite households evading taxes - significantly boost the tax revenues. The model clearly shows that countries with weaker institutions will have a lower tax capacity, as any increase in the tax rates reduces tax compliance and increases tax evasion. Finally, reducing the income tax exemptions, decreasing the share of informal sector firms and employees, and strengthening the institutional quality are essential for improving the fiscal space in the EMDEs. To our knowledge, no coherent neoclassical growth model exists in the literature that effectively captures these features within EMDEs.
Macroeconomic Beliefs and Electoral Dominance [jointly with Anuradha Saha (Ashoka University)] -Working Paper to be released soon
Structural Estimation of Monetary Policy Transmission and Inflation Targeting in India. [Jointly with Nirupama Kulkarni (CAFRAL)]
Digital currencies and their impact on monetary policy transmission. [jointly with Ankita Mandal (IGIDR)]
Will digitization of tax payments shift the Laffer curve? [jointly with Snigdha Kalra (IGIDR)]