Publications in Refereed Journals
66. (2025). ECB's Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Transmission: Predictability from Text-based Sentiment Indicators? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29: e102 (with Bich Ngoc Nguyen). [DOI]
65. (2025). Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rate Expectations. International Journal of Forecasting, 41(3): 1003-1021 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
64. (2025). Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29: e2. [DOI] Working Paper Version
63. (2024). Macroeconomic Effects from Media Coverage of the China-U.S. Trade War on selected EU Countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 85: 102611 (with Joscha Beckmann and Michael Murach). [DOI] Working Paper Version
62. (2023). Perceived Monetary Policy Uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 130: 102761 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
61. (2023). Are the Forecasts of Professionals Compatible with the Taylor Rule? Evidence from the Euro Area. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(3): 698-717. [DOI]
60. (2023). The Role of Expectations for Currency Crisis Dynamics - The Case of the Turkish Lira. Journal of Forecasting, 42(3): 625-642 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
59. (2023). Survey Data, Expectations and the Macroeconomy. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 205: A15-A17 (with Joscha Beckmann and Kamil Yilmaz). [DOI]
58. (2023). Dimensions and Determinants of Inflation Anchoring. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 92(2), 31-44 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
57. (2023). Long-Short Speculator Sentiment in Agricultural Commodity Markets. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 28(4): 3511-3528 (with Oliver Borgards). [DOI] Working Paper Version
56. (2022). Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Information Rigidity in the Crude Oil Market: Evidence from Survey Data. European Economic Review, 143: 104041. [DOI] Working Paper Version
55. (2022). Exchange Rate Expectation, Abnormal Returns, and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 196: 1-25 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
54. (2021). Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and its Effects on the Real Economy: German Evidence. Oxford Economic Papers, 73(4): 1516-1535 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
53. (2021). Monetary Policy and Foreign Denominated Debt by Non-Bank Borrowers. Credit and Capital Markets - Kredit und Kapital, 54(3): 423-446 (with Joscha Beckmann and Thomas Osowski). [DOI]
52. (2021). Features of Overreactions in the Cryptocurrency Market. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80: 31-48 (with Oliver Borgards). [DOI]
51. (2021). Price Overreactions in the Commodity Futures Market: An Intraday Analysis of the Covid-19 Pandemic Impact. Resources Policy, 71: 101966 (with Oliver Borgards and Thi-Hong-Van Hoang). [DOI]
50. (2020). Is the Negative Interest Rate Policy Effective? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 174: 75-86. [DOI] Working Paper Version
49. (2020). The Relative Valuation of Gold. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 24(6): 1346-1391 (with Dirk Baur and Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
48. (2020). Professional Forecasters' Expectations, Consistency and International Spillovers. Journal of Forecasting, 39(7): 1001-1024 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
47. (2020). The Role of Uncertainty on Agricultural Futures Markets Momentum Trading and Volatility. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 24(3): 20180054. [DOI]
46. (2020). Commodity Futures and a Wavelet-Based Risk Assessment. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 554: 124339 (with Theo Berger). [DOI]
45. (2020). The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Theory and Evidence. Energy Economics, 88: 104772 (with Vipin Arora and Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]EIA Working Paper
44. (2020). The Prevalence of Price Overreactions in the Cryptocurrency Market. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 65: 101194 (with Oliver Borgards). [DOI]
43. (2020). Renewable Energy Consumption and Industrial Production: A Disaggregated Time-Frequency Analysis for the U.S. Energy Economics, 85: 104433 (with Thi-Hong-Van Hoang and Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad). [DOI]
42. (2020). Revisiting the Valuable Roles of Commodities for International Stock Markets. Resources Policy, 66: 101603 (with Sajid Ali, Elie Bouri and Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad). [DOI]
41. (2020). Net Foreign Asset Positions, Capital Flows and GDP Spillovers. Open Economies Review, 31(2): 295-308 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
40. (2020). Renewable Energy Consumption-Economic Growth Nexus in G7 Countries: New Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach. Economics Bulletin, 40(4): 2828-2843 (with Naceur Khraief and Muhammad Shahbaz). [DOI]
39. (2019). Dynamics between Trading Volume, Volatility and Open Interest in Agricultural Futures Markets: A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Approach. Econometrics and Statistics, 12: 78-145. [DOI] Working Paper Version
38. (2019). How Do Oil Shocks Impact Energy Consumption? A Disaggregated Analysis for the U.S. The Energy Journal, 40: 167-210 (with Thi-Hong-Van Hoang, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad and Javed Bhat). [DOI]
37. (2019). Crude Oil Futures Trading and Uncertainty. Energy Economics, 80: 793-811. [DOI] Working Paper Version
36. (2019). Gold Price Dynamics and the Role of Uncertainty. Quantitative Finance, 19(4): 663-681 (with Joscha Beckmann and Theo Berger). [DOI] Working Paper Version
35. (2019). Tail Dependence between Gold and Sectorial Stocks in China: Perspectives for Portfolio Diversification. Empirical Economics, 56(3): 1117-1144 (with Joscha Beckmann, Theo Berger and Thi-Hong-Van Hoang). [DOI] Working Paper Version
34. (2019). An Empirical Assessment of Recent Challenges in Today's Financial Markets. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 66(1): 1-4 (with Joscha Beckmann and Gary Koop). [DOI]
33. (2018). Is Equity Market Volatility Driven by Migration Fear? Finance Research Letters, 27: 34-37. [DOI]
32. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4): 2158-2176 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
31. (2018). The Macroeconomic Role of Currency Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Markets - The Asian Experience. The World Economy, 41(1): 77-99 (with Joscha Beckmann and Theo Berger). [DOI]
30. (2017). Capital Flows and GDP in Emerging Economies and the Role of Global Spillovers. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 142: 140-163 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
29. (2017). Exchange Rate Expectations since the Financial Crisis: Performance Evaluation and the Role of Monetary Policy and Safe Haven. Journal of International Money and Finance, 74: 283-300 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
28. (2017). Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances. Review of International Economics, 25(3): 500-533 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]Working Paper Version
27. (2017). The Impact of Uncertainty on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73: 296-316 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
26. (2017). Exchange Rate Expectations and Economic Policy Uncertainty. European Journal of Political Economy, 47: 148-162 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
25. (2016). A Melting Pot - Gold Price Forecasts under Model and Parameter Uncertainty. International Review of Financial Analysis, 48: 282-291 (with Dirk Baur and Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version Blog Comment
24. (2016). Oil Price and FX-Rates Dependency. Quantitative Finance, 16(3): 477-488 (with Joscha Beckmann and Theo Berger). [DOI]
23. (2015). Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation. AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 99(2): 161-187 (with Christoph Hanck). [DOI] Working Paper Version
22. (2015). International Parity Relationships between Germany and the USA Revisited: Evidence from the Post-DM Period. Applied Economics, 47(26): 2745-2767 (with Jan Prüser). [DOI] Dataset
21. (2015). Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven for Stocks? A Smooth Transition Approach. Economic Modelling, 48: 16-24 (with Joscha Beckmann and Theo Berger). [DOI] Working Paper Version
20. (2015). Causality and Volatility Patterns between Gold Prices and Exchange Rates. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 34: 292-300 (with Joscha Beckmann and Keith Pilbeam). [DOI]
19. (2015). Productivity Shocks and Real Effective Exchange Rates. Review of Development Economics, 19(3): 502-515 (with Joscha Beckmann and Ansgar Belke). [DOI]
18. (2015). Do Industrial Metals Prices Exhibit Bubble Behavior? In: Beran, J.; Feng, Y.; Hebbel, H. (Eds.): Empirical Economic and Financial Research - Theory, Methods and Practice, Series: Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Heidelberg: Springer, 48: 275-286 (with Walter Assenmacher). [DOI]
17. (2014). Does Global Liquidity Drive Commodity Prices? Journal of Banking & Finance, 48: 224-234 (with Joscha Beckmann and Ansgar Belke). [DOI]
16. (2014). The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers - Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies. The World Economy, 37(8): 1101-1127 (with Joscha Beckmann and Ansgar Belke). [DOI]
15. (2014). Regime Shifts and the Canada/US Exchange Rate in a Multivariate Framework. Economics Letters, 123(2): 206-211 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
14. (2014). Regime-Dependent Adjustment in Energy Spot and Futures Markets. Economic Modelling, 40: 400-409 (with Joscha Beckmann and Ansgar Belke). [DOI]
13. (2014). Non-linearities in the Relationship of Agricultural Futures Prices. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41(1): 1-23 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
12. (2014). Volatility Transmission in Agricultural Futures Markets. Economic Modelling, 36: 541-546 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
11. (2013). Is There a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters? Energy Economics, 40: 665-678 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
10. (2013). The Forward Pricing Function of Industrial Metal Futures - Evidence from Cointegration and Smooth Transition Regression Analysis. International Review of Applied Economics, 27(4): 472-490 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
9. (2013). Oil and Gold Price Dynamics in a Multivariate Cointegration Framework. International Economics and Economic Policy, 10(3): 453-468 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
8. (2013). The U.S. Current Account and Real Effective Dollar Exchange Rates. Kredit und Kapital - Credit and Capital Markets, 46(2): 213-231 (with Joscha Beckmann and Ansgar Belke). [DOI]
7. (2013). Oil Prices and Effective Dollar Exchange Rates. International Review of Economics & Finance, 27: 621-636 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
6. (2013). Gold as an Inflation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coefficient Framework. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 24: 208-222 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI] Working Paper Version
5. (2012). Modelling Euro Area Money Demand and Forecasting Inflation in a Time-Varying Environment. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 5(3): 244-267. [DOI]
4. (2012). Spot and Futures Commodity Markets and the Unbiasedness Hypothesis - Evidence from a Novel Panel Unit Root Test. Economics Bulletin, 32(2): 1695-1707 (with Joscha Beckmann). [DOI]
3. (2011). P-Star in Times of Crisis - Forecasting Inflation for the Euro Area. Economic Systems, 35(3): 390-407. [DOI]
2. (2011). Improving Phillips Curve Based Inflation Forecasts: A Monetary Approach for the Euro Area. Banks and Bank Systems, 6(2): 5-14. [DOI]
1. (2010). Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques. Applied Economics Quarterly, 56(4): 285-315 (with Ansgar Belke). [DOI] Working Paper Version
Working Papers
(2025). Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring (with Joscha Beckmann). Working Paper Version
(2025). Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors. Working Paper Version