Working Papers:

Publications:

  1. Impulse Response Estimation By Smooth Local Projections(with C. Brownlees), Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming, Apr. 2018
    (
    Code in R or Matlab)

  2. Functional Approximations of Impulse Responses (FAIR), Appendix, (with C. Matthes), Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming, Feb. 2018
    (Code for FAIR models)
    Non-technical summary: 
    Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?  Richmond Fed Economic Brief 17-03

  3. Under-Employment and the Trickle-Down of UnemploymentAppendix, (with Y. Zylberberg), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming, Feb. 2018
    Featured in The Wall Street Journal

  4.  On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment, Appendix, (with G. Mesters), Review of Economics and Statistics May 2018
    Non-technical summary: 
     How Tight Is the US Labor Market?  FRBSF Economic Letter, March 2017

  5. Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation, (with A. Figura),  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Appendix
    Featured in  VoxEUThe Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Fortune
     
  6. Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries: the Ins and Outs, (with P. Garda), European Economic Review, Special Issue on European Unemployment, 2016

  7. Labor Market Heterogeneitand the Aggregate Matching Function, (with A. Figura), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Oct 2015

  8. The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment, (with C. Nekarda), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2012
    Featured in The Wall Street Journal I
     & 
    II, The New York Times I, II & IIIBusiness Week, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, Old forecast and analysis of the US labor market available here

  9. Vacancy posting, Job Separation and Unemployment Fluctuations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, March 2012
    Featured in The New Republic

  10. Which Industries are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?, (with M. Elsby, B. Hobijn and A. Sahin), Prepared for the JOLTS Symposium, December 2010, Washington D.C., Monthly Labor Review, June 2012.

  11. Productivity and Unemployment over the Business Cycle, AppendixJournal of Monetary Economics, Nov 2010.

  12. Building a composite Help-Wanted IndexEconomics Letters, Dec 2010.
    Data, updated 2016m12:
     
    Composite Help-Wanted Index
    Featured in The Wall Street Journal

  13. The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks, IMF Staff Papers56(4), 2009.
    (older version: 
    IMF Working Paper, WP/08/149, 2008)

  14. Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (joint with Shanaka Peiris (IMF)), Journal of African Economies, 17(5), 2008.
    (older version: IMF Working Paper, WP/07/32, 2007)


FRB San Francisco Economic Letters:


Discussions:


Older Working Papers:

    •  Fiscal Policy and Deficit Bias with Non-Educated (or Naive) Agents, Working Paper, 2004