Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis

Welcome to the homepage for a new textbook by Jack W Baker, Brendon A Bradley and Peter J Stafford, now available for pre-order from Cambridge University Press.

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This book describes the principles and procedures behind Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, enabling users of these tools to understand best practices, and enabling geology, seismology, geophysics and civil engineering researchers to see the broader implications of their work. With a basic overview that is focused on procedures rather than the validity of detailed scientific models used for inputs, the book is broadly accessible to readers in all of the above fields.

A primary objective of this project is to facilitate the teaching of these topics to late-stage undergraduate and post-graduate level students in the fields of engineering and the earth sciences. However, it should also be a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers in these fields. To that end we attempt to present the material in as transparent a manner as possible, whilst also indicating where the state-of-the-art lies.

Praise for "Seismic Hazard and risk analysis"

‘An enormously valuable contribution, which teachers and students of seismic hazard analysis have been crying out for. Baker, Bradley and Stafford have produced a clear and comprehensive textbook for students, practitioners and end-users that I predict will lead to a significant and lasting improvement in the state-of-practice over the coming years.’ - Dr Julian J Bommer, Seismic Hazard and Risk Consultant

‘Seismic hazard and risk analysis has become so complex as to be regarded by many as an opaque, mysterious topic only to be understood by a small group of specialists. With this book, the veil has been lifted. It should be on the shelves of all serious students, practitioners, and researchers in the areas of seismic hazard analysis, earthquake engineering, and risk analysis.’ - Professor Steve Kramer, University of Washington [see Book review in Earthquake Spectra]

‘The authors’ profound knowledge and understanding of the interdisciplinary fields used in seismic hazard and risk analysis, and their own remarkable contributions to it, have yielded a comprehensive foundation for its more uniform, rigorous and advanced practice worldwide.’ - Dr Paul Somerville, AECOM, Los Angeles

About the Authors

Jack W Baker is a Professor in the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University.

Brendon A Bradley is a Professor of Earthquake Engineering in the Department of Civil & Natural Resources Engineering at the University of Canterbury.

Peter J Stafford is a Reader in Engineering Seismology & Earthquake Engineering in the Department Civil & Environmental Engineering at Imperial College London.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction

  2. Seismic Source Characterization

  3. Characterization of Earthquake Rates & Rupture Scenarios

  4. Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization

  5. Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization

  6. PSHA Calculation

  7. PSHA Products

  8. Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis

  9. Seismic Risk

  10. Ground-motion Selection

  11. Spatially Distributed Systems

  12. Validation


A. Basics of Probability

B. Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration