Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis

Welcome to the homepage for a new book in preparation by Jack W Baker, Brendon A Bradley and Peter J Stafford.

As work continues, this site will develop to host sample materials, supplementary software and datasets. Sign up below to be notified as materials become available.

With this book, we aim to describe the principles and procedures behind Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, enabling users of these tools to understand best practices, and enabling geology, seismology, geophysics and civil engineering researchers to see the broader implications of their work. With a basic overview that is focussed on procedures rather than the validity of detailed scientific models used for inputs, this book will be broadly accessible to readers in all of the above fields.

A primary objective of this project is to facilitate the teaching of these topics to late-stage undergraduate and post-graduate level students in the fields of engineering and the earth sciences. However, our hope is that the book also becomes a valuable resource for practitioners and fellow researchers in these fields. To that end we attempt to present the material in as transparent a manner as possible, whilst also indicating where the state-of-the-art lies.

About the Authors

Jack W Baker is a Professor in the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University.

Brendon A Bradley is a Professor of Earthquake Engineering in the Department of Civil & Natural Resources Engineering at the University of Canterbury.

Peter J Stafford is a Reader in Engineering Seismology & Earthquake Engineering in the Department Civil & Environmental Engineering at Imperial College London.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction

  2. Seismic Source Characterization

  3. Characterization of Earthquake Rates & Rupture Scenarios

  4. Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization

  5. Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization

  6. PSHA Calculation

  7. PSHA Products

  8. Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis

  9. Seismic Risk

  10. Ground-motion Selection

  11. Spatially Distributed Systems

  12. Validation


A. Basics of Probability

B. Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration