L2 C5 S2

S2: Modeling a Complex Reality

The reality is too complex to be matched by models. There are many different real world situations which can be analyzed by applying probability models. The effect of applying the model is to simplify many complex aspects of reality to simple terms which can be studied within the model. The effect is to emphasize those aspects which are picked up by the model and to ignore and neglect those aspects which are not. Thus the use of model always carries its dangers, in that it may promote neglect of very important aspects of reality. The example of the tiger who bit off the head of his trainer at a show in Las Vegas was cited as an examnple of this Black Swan Uncertainty by Nicholas Nessim Taleb

Situations where there is uncertainty, and then it is resolved by some decision or action which takes place, these situations can often be modeled by probability models. This is not always the case, and also there are situations which do not conform to this pattern, which can also be modeled by probability, but we will not consider these complications for now.

For the moment, we just want to note that there is similarity between the reality and the model in that there is a PRE-EXPERIMENTAL situation where there is uncertainty, and a POST EXPERIMENTAL situation where the uncertainty is eliminated. Choices and potential possibilities exist in the early period of time, but the uncertainity is RESOLVED after an event takes place. After the uncertainty is resolved, choices have been made, and many potential possibilities have been destroyed, as one among them is chosen.