PROBABILITY-BASED ENGINEERING ANALYSIS AND DESIGN
This course will survey the topics of probability and stochastic processes, and their application to various problems of engineering analysis and design. Emphasis will be placed on methods that are in common use in industry applications of reliability theory. Topics surveyed will include
Probability theory: Discussion of basic models; historical context of engineering applications
Random process theory: Emphasis on models used to describe random vibration of mechanical systems
Statistical inference: Calibration of probability models to the data at hand
Structural reliability analysis: Discussion of methods to propagate the uncertainty in these models, such as Monte-Carlo simulation, FORM and SORM
Probability-based design: Illustration of methods such as LRFD (load- and resistance-factor design)
Case studies will be drawn from a wide range of engineering applications. Particular attention will be paid to complex structural loading mechanisms -- such as wind, wave, seismic, and ice loads -- whose uncertainties have especially motivated the use of probabilistic methods. Limit states arising from both extreme loading and cumulative damage will be considered. The basis behind some current probability-based structural codes will be discussed.
In most of these topics, the talks will seek to provide a general overview, appropriate for those will little or no background in probability or statistics. Additional material and references will be made available to those seeking greater technical detail.