Publications

In English:

In this paper, we analyze the impact of short-time work programs on the French labor market during the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a dynamic model with incomplete markets, search frictions, human capital, and aggregate and idiosyncratic productivity shocks. We calibrate our model and simulate what the labor market response to a lockdown shock would have been under various STW programs. We show that STW succeeded in stabilizing employment and consumption but generated substantial windfall effects characterized by an excessive reduction in hours worked.

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, governmentshave adopted a variety of public health measures. Countries like South Korea,Germany, and Iceland take the bet of massive testing of the population. Onthe opposite, few people are tested in southern European countries. As theformer undergo a lower case-fatality rate due to the COVID-19 than the latter,the impact of the testing strategy must be investigated. In this study, we aimedto evaluate the impact of testing on the fatality rate.

This article sheds light on the dynamics of the Argentine labor market, using quarterly data from the Argentine Labor Force Survey for the period 2003Q3 to 2020Q1. We examine quarterly transition rates in a four-state model with formal employment, informal employ-ment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. We compute the contribution of each transi-tion rate to fluctuations in unemployment and informality rates. We identify five stylized facts: (i) Nearly 40% of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate involves unemployment ins and outs from/to informal jobs. (ii) More than 40% of the fluctuations in informality rate are driven by the variance of the formalization rate (transition from informal to formal employment). (iii) Non-participation matters for the understanding of unemployment volatility but also for the comprehension of the volatility on informality. (iv) Regarding gender differences: transition involving non-participation matters more in the variance of female unemployment and informality rates than for their male counterparts. (v) The informal sector plays an important role as a stepping stone to formal jobs for both men and women. Our article provides empirical targets to discipline theoretical modeling of labor market dynamics with a sizeable shadow economy.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the recent US unemployment benefit extension on labor market dynamics when the nominal interest rate is held at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Using a New Keynesian model, our quantitative experiments suggest that, in contrast to the existing literature that ignores the liquidity trap situation, the unemployment benefit extension has reduced unemployment by 0.7 percentage points on average. The inflationary pressure caused by the benefit extension reduces the real interest rate and offsets the job search effects and the drop in firms' vacancy postings resulting from the increase in wages. Outside the ZLB, it has adverse effects on unemployment. Furthermore, the ZLB explains 0.9 percentage points of the rise in unemployment.

We investigate the size of the multiplier at the ZLB in a New keynesian model. It ranges from around -0.25 to +1.5, depending on the extent to which government spending is productive, substitutable or not for private consumption.

En Français :

La plupart des pays en développement sont caractérisés par la présence d’un large secteur informel. Son importance a engendré une littérature conséquente en économie du développement tant en termes d’évaluation qu’en termes de recommandation de politique publique. Dans cet article, nous présenterons les divers aspects abordés par cette littérature. Dans un premier temps, nous tenterons de quantifier l’ampleur de l’emploi informel dans plusieurs pays en développement et de mettre en évidence les déterminants de l’informalité. Nous présenterons ensuite les approches théoriques de l’emploi informel. Enfin, nous ferons un tour d’horizon des politiques publiques en présence d’informalité. 

Cet article montre que le multiplicateur de dépenses publiques peut être élevé dans le cadre d'un modèle « Nouveau keynésien » mais inférieur à l'unité lorsque l'économie est dirigée par une règle de Taylor. Néanmoins, en situation de trappe à liquidité ce multiplicateur se révèle être plus important et peut même devenir très ample pour des récessions longues.

Chapitres :