Pamela Giustinelli

RESEARCH

"Scientific Optimism is basically a can-do spirit,

the expectation that the problem at hand is going to be solvable -- by you, or by your team."

Perlmutter, Campbell, and MacCoun

WORKING PAPERS

The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans with Stefano Rossi, R&R to the Review of Financial Studies WP

PUBLISHED, FORTHCOMING, AND ACCEPTED PAPERS

For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior. An application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom with Gabriella Conti, Health Economics, 3(5), May: 992-1012 (2025) Publication Accepted WP & Web App IZA WP (longer version)

Teacher Personality and the Perceived Socioeconomic Gap in Student Outcomes with Giorgio Brunello, Clementina Croce', and Lorenzo Rocco, Economics Letters 247, February: 112096 (2025) Publication IZA WP

SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement with Matthew D. Shapiro, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), April: 278-317 (2024) Publication Accepted WP & Web App AEJAE slides VRI Overview VRI Survey 4 2016 HRS EM 5

Expectations in Education, In: Bachmann R., G. Topa, and W. van der Klaauw (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Expectations, Vol. 1, chapter 7, pp. 193-224, Elsevier B.V. (2023) Handbook Chapter 7

> Longer WP version, covering analytic frameworks, survey elicitation, and empirical evidence:

Expectations in Education: Framework, elicitation, and evidence 2022 HCEO WP with Data Sets Appendix

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study with Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari, Journal of Econometrics 231(1), November: 265-281 (2022) Publication Accepted WP Web App

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from survey response related to late-onset dementia with Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari, Journal of the European Economic Association 20(1), February: 187-221 (2022) Publication JEEA slides Accepted WP & Web App 2016 HRS EM 6

Survey Measures of Family Decision Processes for Econometric Analysis of Schooling Decisions with Charles F. Manski, Economic Inquiry 56(1), January: 81-99 (2018) Publication 2015 HUMAN Project White Paper

The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice with Nicola Pavoni, Review of Economic Dynamics 25, April: 93-120 (2017) Publication Accepted WP Web App VIP Surveys

Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choice of the High School Track, International Economic Review 57(2), May: 573-602 (2016) Publication Accepted WP Web App VRP Student Survey (ITA) VRP Student Survey (ENG) VRP Parent Survey (ITA) VRP Parent Survey (ENG)

Non-Parametric Bounds On Quantiles Under Monotonicity Assumptions: With an Application to the Italian Education Returns, Journal of Applied Econometrics 26(5), August: 783–824 (2011) Publication Accepted WP

Quantile Regression Evidence on Italian Education Returns, Rivista di Politica Economica 94(6), November: 49–100 (2004) (winner of Angelo Costa Undergraduate Thesis Award) Publication

WORK IN PROGRESS

Outcomes, Counterfactuals, and Elicited Beliefs: Evidence from higher education admissions with Edwin Leuven (coming soon)

Climate Change in the Classroom with Stefano Carattini and Marcella Veronesi (coming soon) Pre-registered RCT

How Malleable Are COVID-19 Related Perceptions? Evidence from a light-touch information-&-sensitization intervention with Gabriella Conti and Mirko De Maria (coming soon)

High School Choice Recommendations: Survey evidence from Italian teachers with Giorgio Brunello, Clementina Croce', and Lorenzo Rocco (analyzing data)

Ready to Share? An ex ante Evaluation of Debated Family Policies: Survey evidence from subjective expectations about fertility and childcare arrangements in Italy with Eleonora Matteazzi (analyzing data)

Estimating Subjective Health Production Functions with Gabriella Conti, Mariacristina De Nardi, Johanna Torres Chain, and Fan Wang (fielding in progress)

Climate Change in the Family with Stefano Carattini, Giacomo Manferdini and Marcella Veronesi (design stage)

Whose Choice? Child-Parent Interactions and Choice Set Heterogeneity in Schooling Decisions with Francesca Garbin XXXV SIEP Conference 2023 Slides

Response of Older Workers' Labor Supply to Health and Economic Conditions: Evidence from conditional expectations with Matthew D. Shapiro

Long-Term Care Insurance Choice with Precise and Imprecise Dementia Probabilities with Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari

DORMANT PROJECTS

Ex Ante Risks and Returns and Occupation Sector Choice in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from subjective expectations in Mozambique with Mariapia Mendola and Luigi Minale 2020 Subjective Expectations Workshop Slides

Longevity Expectations and Health Knowledge with Gabor Kezdi 2016 UMich Slides 2018 HRS EM 6

Examining Response Processes Underneath Numerical Reports of Subjective Longevity Expectations: Evidence from simple probing questions with Sunghee Lee 2018 AAPOR Slides

Exploring Use of Web Surveys for Multi-Generational Studies with Bart Orriens, Robert J. Willis, and Michael Zabek 2014 Technical Report 2013 ALP WB346 2013 ALP WB353 2013 ALP WB355

Learning and Reputation in Networks with Federico Grigis (March 2008) 3rd-year PhD Paper

Education, Professions and Socio-Economic Development in Post-Unification Italy (1860-1913) with Andrea Ajello (March 2007) 2nd-year PhD Economic History Paper

Ph.D. DISSERTATION

Decision Making in Education: Returns to Schooling, Uncertainty, and Child-Parent Interactions, Ph.D. Dissertation, Northwestern University (2010) Thesis