Home

Patricia (Tricia) A. Mueller

International Economist

Research Division, Office of Economics, U.S. International Trade Commission

Washington, D.C.

Field:

International Trade, Trade Policy and Negotiations

Education:

MS in Economics, Baylor University (Adviser: Pham Hoang Van)

PhD in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison  (Advisers: Robert Staiger, Kamran Bilir)

Recent Work:

"Disentangling Corruption Effects on Export Versus FDI: Theory and Evidence" (Nov. 2023)

Abstract: Based on the empirical literature on corruption, trade, and FDI, this paper modifies Helpman, Melitz, and Yeaple (2004) to include two mechanisms through which corruption may influence the export versus FDI decision: through a corruption premium on trade costs and a corruption cost to productivity. This paper then demonstrates that anti-corruption provisions in trade agreements can increase trade and FDI flows by reducing home levels of corruption, foreign levels of corruption, or both. Consistent with the theory, econometric analysis then establishes a positive effect of a country's control of corruption on the value of the country's imports, exports, and FDI stock. Finally, I simulate the effect of a hypothetical unilateral reduction in corruption on imports, exports, and FDI for ten developing countries.

"Optimal Tariffs and FDI in the Presence of Political Pressure" (June 2023)

Abstract: In this paper, I modify an industry-specific partial equilibrium model featuring Bertrand competition and tariff-jumping FDI. The model examines how tariff jumping impacts the ability of the government to use temporary tariff protection to protect a sector struggling from import competition, both for sectors with political influence and without. I show that even if the temporary tariff increase leads to tariff-jumping FDI, there are still parameter values for which the government benefits from increasing the tariff temporarily. I also demonstrate that the presence of political economy pressure typically results in a higher temporary tariff rate (unless the tariff hits the upper limit for the remedy of a 50 percent increase). Finally, I show how exploiting observed tariff changes in the data could allow a researcher to calibrate the political economy weight for use in other analysis. 

"Competitiveness and FDI: An Econometric Analysis" (June 2023)

Abstract: This paper examines the econometric relationship between competitiveness and FDI, GDP, or trade. Using the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), I demonstrate that there is a strong, positive relationship between competitiveness and FDI from the U.S. Using the sub-measures of competitiveness within the GCI, I also demonstrate that there are significant gains to be made by a country adopting policies that make domestic markets more competitive.