Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic. European Economic Review, v.156 (with Fernanda Nechio)

Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy. Review of Financial Studies, 35(10): 4561-4586 (with Martin Kornejew, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor)

Longer run consequences of pandemics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1): 166-175 (with Sanjay Singh and Alan M. Taylor)

Bank capital redux: Solvency, liquidity, and crises. Review of Economic Studies, 88(1): 260-286 (with Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor)

The Rate of Return of Everything: 1870-2015. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(4): 1225-1298 (with Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments. Journal of Monetary Economics 112: 22-40 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

Macrofinancial history and the new business cycle facts. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, v.31 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 36(3): 371-387 (with Josh Angrist and Guido Kuersteiner)

Leveraged Bubbles. Journal of Monetary Economics 76(S), December 2015, S1-S20 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles. Economic Policy 31(85), 107-152 (with Moritz Schularik and Alan M. Taylor)

The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy The Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 (with Alan M. Taylor)

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 45-79 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

Betting the House Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor)

Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 729-740

Computing Systemic Risk Using multiple Behavioral and Keystone Networks: The Emergence of a Crisis in Primate Societies and Banks International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 797-806 (with Hsieh Fushing, Brianne Beisner and Brenda McCowan)

Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly National Institute Economic Review 228: R58-R64, May 2014 (with Mary Daly, John Fernald and Fernanda Nechio)

Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts International Journal of Forecasting 29(3), September 2013, 456-468 (with Massimiliano Marcellino and Malte Knuppel)

A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity Journal of the Spanish Economic Association - SERIES 4(1), March 2013, 1-34 (with Travis Berge)

When Credit Bites Back Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 45(s2), 2013, 3-28 (with Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Schularick)

The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear but FEER Itself Journal of International Economics 8(1), September 2012, 74-90 (with Alan M. Taylor)

The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium International Economic Review 53(2), May 2012, 609-634 (with Yanping Chong and Alan M. Taylor)

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons IMF Economic Review 59(2), June 2011, 340-378 (with Moritz Schularik and Alan M. Taylor)

Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application to the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve International Economic Review 52(2), May 2011, 461-487 (with Sharon Kozicki)

Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3(2), April 2011, 246-277 (with Travis J. Berge)

Path Forecast Evaluation Journal of Applied Econometrics 25(4), May 2010, 635-662 (with Massimiliano Marcellino)

Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses Review of Economics and Statistics 91(3), August 2009, 629-647

Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 161-182

Time Scale Transformations of Discrete Time Processes Journal of Time Series Analysis 25(6), November 2004, 873-894 (with Massimiliano Marcellino)

Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence Journal of International Money and Finance 23(5), September 2004, 761-783 (with Paul Bergin)

The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36(3), June 2004, 387-406 (with Selva Demiralp)

The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty Review of Economic Dynamics 7(4), October 2003, 941-962 (with Kevin D. Salyer)

Modeling High-Frequency FX Data Dynamics Macroeconomic Dynamics 7(4), August 2003, 618-635 (with Massimiliano Marcellino)

A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target Journal of Political Economy 110(5), July 2002, 1135-1167 (with James D. Hamilton)

Testing Nonlinearity: Decision Rules for Choosing between Logistic and Exponential STAR Models Spanish Economic Review 3, 2001, 193-209 (with Alvaro Escribano)

Random Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7(3), July 1999, 382-396