Rishabh Sinha

Reports & Papers

Are Price Controls Driving Informality in Central Asia? (2025)

In Central Asia, price controls have been a go-to tool for governments seeking to protect consumers. Yet beneath this well-intentioned shield lies a complex trade-off. These same controls may be shackling formal businesses and nudging economic activity into the shadows of the informal sector. This note peels back the layers of that tension, revealing when price regulation holds back formalization—and when it does not—and what these insights mean for policymakers striving to build resilient, sustainable economies.

[Policy Note]

Rethinking India's growth-obsessed economic policy: From chasing trillions to creating jobs (2024)

India's economic policy has long been obsessed with high growth rates, often sidelining other crucial goals like job creation, which has lagged significantly. In light of this slow job growth, critics are now pushing for a greater emphasis on employment, arguing it's vital for sustaining economic progress. However, this paper argues that these criticisms are misguided. The connection between job creation and growth is both theoretically and empirically weak. Moreover, these critiques mistakenly prioritize economic growth as the end goal despite its tenuous link to welfare metrics such as job creation. Instead, the paper calls for a fundamental shift in policy focus from chasing growth targets toaddressing concrete measures of economic well-being.

[Policy Note]

Bangladesh - Country Economic Memorandum: Change of Fabric (with R Beyer, N Dihel, and others), The World Bank (2022)

Bangladesh’s development progress over the past decades has been remarkable. Bangladesh has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Economic development has translated into higher living standards and improved social and health outcomes. The next years will determine Bangladesh’s longer-term development trajectory. The milestones ahead reflect the deep structural transformation of Bangladesh’s economy over the past decades, but also serve as a reminder that further transformation will be required for a prosperous future. Sustaining fast growth and addressing these global challenges will require overcoming three critical growth constraints. This report explores these constraints and proposes actionable reforms to sustain development. It is expected to inform the public and help the authorities design policies to achieve the goals set out in the eighth five-year plan and Bangladesh vision 2041. The report focuses on three growth constraints: (i) diversifying exports and increasing competitiveness to reach the next development stage through export-led growth; (ii) mobilizing domestic and international savings to channel them toward productive investment; and (iii) upgrading urban areas, unleashing secondary cities, and improving connectivity to sustain structural transformation and increase productivity. In addition, the implications of digital development and climate change are explored as cross-cutting themes across the three topics.

[Full Report]

Resilient Development: A Strategy to Diversify Cambodia’s Growth Model (with C Hollweg, R Larson, R Anantavrasilpa, and others), The World Bank (2021)

The devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Cambodian economy—where the growth slowdown was among the most pronounced in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region—lies in the country’s growth-generating process. Recent growth has been remarkable, but insufficiently diversified in products, markets, and factor inputs. The diversification problem is rooted in low and declining productivity; low quality and weak export linkages; and high foreign direct investment (FDI) but low domestic investment. Just when past success was fueling high ambitions for future growth—to become upper middle income by 2030 and high income by 2050—the pandemic threatens to put those targets out of reach. Cambodia’s policymakers have the opportunity to build a new and stronger growth path—by enabling the productivity of firms and workers, diversifying exports, and harnessing domestic investment. But an ambitious reform agenda is needed—one that focuses on improving capabilities, strengthening regulations, and investing in infrastructure.

[Full Report]

Going Viral: COVID-19 and the Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean (with G Beylis, R Jaef, M Morris, and A Sebastian), The World Bank (2020)

The economic impact of COVID-19 is unprecedented in size and scope. It has quickly evolved from a health emergency into an employment crisis. It also has far-reaching implications for workers beyond the immediate employment effects, as it most likely has accelerated the transformation process of jobs that had already started in the region and the world. This book focuses on three important pre-pandemic trends observed in the region—namely, premature deindustrialization, servicification of the economy, and task automation—that were significantly changing the labor market landscape in the region and that have been accelerated by the crisis. While there is still uncertainty about the economic impacts of Covid-19, policymakers need to start planning for a rapidly evolving future that will come sooner than expected. A strong focus on productivity, technology development and adoption, and training in relevant skills will be key to adapting and taking advantage of the new opportunities in the post-pandemic world. Importantly, the accelerated transformation of jobs calls for a rethinking of labor regulations and social protection policies geared towards wage earners employed in the formal sector of the economy. The three trends identified in Going Viral, the effects of the pandemic itself, and the growing reliance on electronic platforms raise doubts that wage employment will increase substantially in the coming years. At the same time, earnings and transactions processed through electronic platforms are more visible to the authorities, bringing an opportunity to increase tax revenue and social security contributions. The flexible regulation of the emerging forms of work in a way that encourages employment, supports formalization, and expands the coverage of social protection to larger segments of the population will be of utmost importance for policymakers preparing for a new and changed world.

[Full Report (English)] [Full Report (Spanish)]

Bangladesh Development Update (with Z Hussain, S Islam, J Solotaroff, and others), The World Bank (2017)

The Bangladesh economy is weathering persistent global uncertainties relatively well. Poverty reduction is expected to have continued. Growth remained resilient, aided recently by recovery in exports and private investments. Inflation has decelerated benefitting from soft international commodity prices and prudent macroeconomic management. The outlook for Bangladesh’s main export destinations is projected to improve, although downside risks remain elevated. More recently, falling export growth and decline in remittances are emerging near term concerns. According to our model, increased capital accumulation can contribute significantly to boosting growth, but alone cannot deliver a sustainable and accelerated growth path. More is needed, including closing the inter-sectoral productivity gap through increased resource mobility, easing the constraints on firm level productivity and increasing female labor force participation in the formal sectors. In addition, poor infrastructure, inadequate energy supply, and inefficient financial intermediation combined with high cost of doing business remain the key obstacles hindering the realization of Bangladesh’s vast economic potential.

[Full Report]

Long-Term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh, Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7952, The World Bank (2017)

Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to gain insights on government debt sustainability given different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures.

[Paper]

Smaller Pieces

Fewer barriers to labor movement – a recipe for industrialization and growth in Central America?, Let's Talk Development (November 2022)

How does conflict affect the precautionary wealth accumulation?, Research Brief (September 2021)

Identifying the flow of spillovers from coronavirus demand shocks, Let's Talk Development (May 2020)

Recognising special needs during a widespread crisis, Invited contribution, Artha, Shri Ram College of Commerce (May 2020)

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