GLOBAL WARMING & OLDER PEOPLE - threats & solutions

Global warming & older people – threats & solutions

Climate change threatens all humanity but older people are particularly at risk from man-made global warming. Older people are peculiarly threatened by the worsening climate emergency in three key areas that can be summarized by the 3 Ds of (1) Devaluation - only renewable energy-based GDP growth is now possible to prevent devaluation of superannuation and pensions; (2) Death - from greater susceptibility to heat stress of older people; and (3) Descendants - they may well hate us for what we have done to the planet.

Global warming threats to older people - and feasible solutions - are analyzed in greater detail below.

1. The World has already passed a key tipping point for Arctic ice melting and required “negative CO₂ emissions” to reverse this will impact everyone.

According to top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen and colleagues, the world atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration at 390 ppm (as of 2009) has already passed a key tipping point for the melting of Arctic sea ice, with serious implications for human mass mortality and mass species extinctions from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melting, tundra melting, sea level rises and runaway global warming from potentially devastating “positive feedback” (worsening) effects (e.g. the “albedo flip” involving light-reflecting snow and ice replacement with light-absorbing dark water; melt water lubrication of glacier movement; release of greenhouse gases from melting tundra; burning of major tropical forests stopping CO₂ sequestration and releasing CO₂ ; warming-exacerbated storms limiting ocean CO₂ absorption; global warming limiting phytoplankton productivity and hence diminishing CO₂ sequestration and dimethyl sulphide production needed for “seeding” light-reflecting cloud formation).

Several years ago Dr Hansen and his NASA GISS colleagues said that we must return atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of no more than 350 ppm through cessation of fossil fuel burning, replacement of the carbon economy with solar-based renewables and geothermal energy, decrease in atmospheric CO₂ through re-afforestation and return of carbon to the soil as pyrolytically-generated biochar. Top climate scientists, including Dr Hansen, now say that for retention of Arctic sea ice we must return atmospheric CO2 to about 300 ppm, the maximum it has been for 0.8 million years prior to the Industrial Revolution (see: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf ; 2007 IPCC Assessment report 4 Synthesis Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ ; the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: http://climatecongress.ku.dk/ ; the Synthesis Report of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: http://lyceum.anu.edu.au/wp-content/blogs/3/uploads//Synthesis%20Report%20Web.pdf ; Summary of the Synthesis Report of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/synthesis-report-of-the-2009-copenhagen-climate-change-conference ; 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ).

Older people no longer in the workforce depend upon investment of their economic resources (investments, assets, superannuation, pension funds) and people in the workforce to save the planet. However old people can at least ADVOCATE for rapid implementation of rational, timely solutions.

2. Heat waves will differentially kill elderly people.

In 2003 there was a heat wave in Europe that killed 35,000-50,000 people in Europe and nearly 15,000 in France. In late January 2009 an estimated 374 people died in Victoria, SE Australia, during an extraordinary heatwave ( 3 days with temperatures above 43 degrees C) that occurred a week before the Black Saturday bushfires in which 173 people perished. Older people are differentially affected by elevated temperatures, the problems being that older people are frailer, more prone to heat stress and have diminished brain signalling of dehydration stress (see: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/elderlyheat.asp ; http://www.medindia.net/news/Brain-Malfunction-Explains-Dehydration-in-Elderly-31069-1.htm ; http://www.sfbr.org/pages/news_release_detail.php?id=15 ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave ; http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2003-09-25-france-heat_x.htm ; Victorian heat wave deaths: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25296830-2702,00.html ).

3. Retirement benefits require GDP growth, and carbon-based growth is no longer sustainably possible but cheap, non-carbon energy alternatives are already developed.

For people who are self-funded retirees on superannuation schemes or government pensions it is necessary for GDP growth to compensate for outlays and inflation. However, as outlined in (1) above, the present carbon-based energy economy in which GDP is directly promotional to CO₂ pollution has to stop as soon as possible (for recent reviews of such already developed, low-cost, non-carbon renewable and geothermal energy technologies see items below and : http://www.newmatilda.com/node/2398?ArticleID=2398&CategoryID=213 ; http://mwcnews.net/content/view/18667/42/ ; http://www.coolearthsolar.com/ ; http://www.martinot.info/Martinot_et_al_AR32_prepub.pdf ).

Non-investment in sustainable renewable and geothermal energy means that the retirement funds of older people will de-value rather than appreciate.

4. The true cost of coal burning-based energy is 4-5 times the market cost – an inefficiency with much greater impact on investment-dependent retirees.

A study for the Ontario (Canada) Ministry of Energy has found that the “true cost” in cents/kWh of coal burning-based electricity with environmental and human impacts added is 4-5-fold greater than the “market cost”. This estimate makes all the latest renewable and geothermal energy provision technologies cheaper than the “true cost” of coal-based electricity.

Investment growth-dependent retirees are differentially impacted by failure to rapidly convert out carbon-based economies to more efficient and productive renewable- or geothermal-based economies (see: http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=8836 ; http://www.newmatilda.com/node/2398?ArticleID=2398&CategoryID=213 ).

5. Pollutants from fossil fuel-based electricity generation kill 0.3 million people annually world-wide with a greater risk to older people.

Toxic pollutants are produced from fossil fuel-based electricity generation, notably carbon monoxide, particulates, sulphur dioxide, heavy metals (notably mercury, Hg), and volatile organics. Pollution from coal plants producing 27 TWh/year (20% of supply) kill 668 people per year in Ontario (population 12 million) suggesting coal plants producing 77% of Australia's annual 255 TWh of electricity (see: http://www.uic.com.au/nip37.htm ; i.e. 0.77 x 255 = 196.4 TWh/year) might kill about 196.4 TWh x 668/27 TWh = 4,859 people annually in Australia (population 21 million). “Annual coal-based electricity deaths” [“total annual fossil fuel-based electricity deaths”] are 170,000 [283,000] (the World), 11,000 [13,000] (India), 47,000 [47,500] (China), 49,000 [72,000] (the US), 3,400 [6,900] (the UK), 4,900 [5,400] (Australia) and 2,700 [3,800](Canada) as compared to 110 [360] (heavily renewable-based New Zealand).

There is a much greater life-time and old-age impact of fossil fuel combustion-derived pollutants on older people (see: http://green-blog.org/2008/06/14/pollutants-from-coal-based-electricity-generation-kill-170000-people-annually/ ; http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=8836 ).

6. Already developed best renewable and geothermal energy is much cheaper than the “true cost” of coal-based electricity.

Here are some 2007 figures in Australian cents/kWh for tradable electricity: 4 (coal “market cost”); 8 (likely coal-based under an ETS or emissions trading scheme); 16-20 (coal “true cost” taking environmental and human cost into account); 15 nuclear (via the UK's newest Sizewell B plant); 5 (geothermal); 8 (wind power); 15 (concentrated solar); 25-45 (standard silicon-based photovoltaics or PVs) (http://www.newmatilda.com/node/2398?ArticleID=2398&CategoryID=213 ).

However sliver technology will reduce PV costs 3-fold (http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1805365.htm ) and tidal and wave power are established local possibilities. CIGS non-silicon thin film (http://www.globalsolar.com/content/view/25/49/ ; http://www.thinfilmsblog.com/2007/12/157-efficient-thin-films-cigs-solar.html ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_indium_gallium_selenide ), thin balloon-based concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) (http://www.coolearthsolar.com/ ; http://www.businessweek.com/investing/green_business/archives/2008/05/rethinking_the.html ) and large-scale concentrated solar power (CSP) with efficient energy storage (http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/ ; http://www.ausra.com/news/releases/080306.html ) are currently approaching cost-competitiveness with the “market price” of coal-based power (subject to price fluctuations due to the current recession) . Plus further items such as plug-in electric cars, local electricity plus usable heat generation (co-generation) , energy efficiency, vast energy solar resource, revolutionary advances in electrolysis and hydrogen fuel cell technologies …

7. Older people want to leave the world a better place.

8. Older people must be acutely concerned over the fate of their children and grandchildren.

9. Older people have enjoyed the benefits of the profligate carbon economy and are morally obliged to “put back”.

10. Older people have the accumulated experience, money and time to make a difference – and are surely obliged to do so for the sake of their descendants and the biosphere in general..