Publications
Nuno Palma
If you are looking for the data of a particular paper, it should be in the replication packages below or in the website of the journal where the paper was published. If you use any of the data or replication files in your work, please cite the corresponding paper.
Articles in academic journals
Understanding money using historical evidence Annual Review of Economics (with Adam Brzezinski and François Velde), forthcoming
Short abstract: A review essay concerning monetary history and policy lessons to be learned.
The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire Review of Economics and Statistics (with Adam Brzezinski, Yao Chen and Felix Ward), forthcoming
Short abstract: We exploit shipwrecks of the silver fleets as a recurring natural experiment to identify the effects of money supply shocks on the economy. A reduction in the money supply led to a drop in real output that persisted for several years. The price level fell permanently, but with a lag.
The rise and fall of paper money in Yuan China, 1260-1368 Economic History Review (with Hanhui Guan and Meng Wu), forthcoming
Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime in history able to deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. We show that military pressure generated fiscal demands which led to over-issuance, and we reject the role of excessive imperial grants in triggering the over-issue of money.
Anatomy of a premodern state European Review of Economic History (with Leonor F. Costa and António C. Henriques), forthcoming
Short abstract: We provide a blueprint for the construction of historical state capacity measures. We consider Portugal (1369-1810) as an application. We show that Portugal's state capacity was at normal Western European levels. Hence, the cause of Portugal's historical development failure lies elsewhere.
Spending a windfall International Economic Review (2024) 65 (1): 283-313 (with André C. Silva)
Short abstract: American precious metals were the key driver of early modern Euro-Asian trade
Stunting and wasting in a growing economy: biological living standards in Portugal during the twentieth century Economics and Human Biology (2023) vol. 51: 101267 (with Alexandra L. Cermeño and Renato Pistola)
Short abstract: We find that stunting and wasting among children and young adults in Portugal fell quickly from the 1950s, and most improvements occurred until the mid-1970, prior to the introduction of democracy.
Comparative European Institutions and the Little Divergence, 1385-1800 Journal of Economic Growth (2023) 28: 259–294 (with A. C. Henriques)
Short abstract: We build a new dataset which allows for a comparison of institutional quality over time and find no evidence that the political institutions of Iberia were worse than those of England until the English Civil War.
Featured on Marginal Revolution
Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900 Explorations in Economic History (2023), vol. 88 (with Jaime Reis and Lisbeth Rodrigues)
Short abstract: Women's relative social and economic position was no worse in Portugal than in Northwestern European countries, hence the cause of Portugal's development failure lies elsewhere.
Media coverage (Atlantico)
The long-run effects of risk: an equilibrium approach European Economic Review (2023), vol. 153 (with C. van der Kwaak and J. Madeira)
Short abstract: We employ a DSGE model with banks featuring limited liability to investigate how risk shocks in the financial sector affect long-run macroeconomic outcomes.
Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: the bank of England and the British economy, 1694-1844 Economic History Review (2023) 76 (1): 305-329 (with Patrick O'Brien)
Short abstract: The Bank of England assisted in the formation of an effective fiscal-military state in Britain
The value of political connections: evidence from China's anti-corruption campaign Journal of Institutional Economics (2022) 18 (5): 785-805 (with Marta Alonso and Beatriz Simón-Yarza)
Short abstract: We study the value of politically connected directors in Chinese boards. Firms with politically connected directors show significant higher subsidies and tax breaks. The value of the connections increased after the Anti-Corruption Campaign of 2012 and is significant for private firms, having no effect on SOEs. Connected firms do not perform better despite the advantages that they benefit from.
Media coverage (Bloomberg)
Shortlisted, Elinor Ostrom Prize
The real effects of monetary expansions: evidence from a large-scale historical experiment Review of Economic Studies (2022) 89 (3), 1593-1627
Short abstract: I explore the discovery of rich deposits of precious metals in America in the early modern period as a natural experiment for random variation in changes in money supply in Europe. A 10% increase in production of precious metals led to a hump-shaped positive response of real GDP in Europe, peaking at an average increase of close to 1% six to nine years later.
Best paper award at 3rd Macro, Banking and Finance workshop, Pavia, Italy
Replication package (following this policy, using this template; see also this.)
The efficiency of the Chinese silver standard, 1920-33 Journal of Economic History (2021) 81 (3), 872-908 (with Liuyan Zhao)
Short abstract: We test for financial market integration in China during 1920-1933 using a new dataset of daily domestic exchange rates. Despite political instability, domestic financial markets were highly integrated in the most advanced parts of China, but not in remote cities. Western influence mattered positively.
Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492-1810 Explorations in Economic History (2021), vol. 81 (with Yao Chen and Felix Ward)
Short abstract: What accounts for the fivefold increase in Spanish prices in the early modern period? To answer this question, we reconstruct the Spanish money supply from 1492 to 1810. We find that money growth accounts for the vast majority of Spain’s price level rise over the early modern period.
Tinbergen institute working paper, also available here.
Slavery and development in nineteenth century Brazil Capitalism: A Journal of History and Economics (2021) 2 (2): 372-426 (with A. Papadia, T. Pereira and L. Weller)
Short abstract: Slavery held back industrialization and overall economic development in Brazil. The new history of capitalism lacks a comparative perspective. Brazil imported more slaves than any other country in the world and slavery lasted longer and was more widespread there than in the United States. Rather than promoting economic growth and development, the evidence shows that slavery held back industrialization.
Media coverage: BBC Brazil
Featured on Conversable Economist
Can autocracy promote literacy? evidence from a cultural alignment success story Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (2021) 86: 412-436 (with Jaime Reis)
Short abstract: We show that Portugal's authoritarian Estado Novo regime actively worked to eradicate illiteracy and explain why it was more successful in this goal than the more democratic Republic which preceded it.
Danger to the old lady of Threadneedle street? the bank restriction act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797-1821 European Review of Economic History (2020) 24 (2): 390-426 (with Patrick K. O'Brien)
Short abstract: The Bank of England's suspension of the gold standard during 1797-1821 was sucessful due to a prior history of commitment.
working paper version, alternatively here.
Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: the case of Portugal, 1527-1864 Historical Methods (2020) 53 (1): 11-27 (with J. Reis and M. Zhang).
Short abstract: We use a novel methodology which combines parish-level data with census-type data to arrive at annual regional and national population estimates for Portugal over this period
working paper version (alternatively, here).
data: national, regional, and local population. Additionally, some of the primary data can be found here, here, here, and here.
From convergence to divergence: Portuguese economic growth, 1527-1850 Journal of Economic History (2019) 79 (2): 477-506 (with Jaime Reis)
Short abstract: We present the first series for Portugal's GDP during this period, which show that divergence relative to the European core happened relatively late, but decline was steady and fast once it started taking place
ungated version: (read the article for free here).
Blog posts: Blog post in "the Portuguese economy"; blog post in "The Long Run" (EHS blog)
On the discrepancies between the original Maddison dataset and more recent GDP reconstructions
data (main results) - includes real GDP per capita, real GDP, nominal GDP, and prices indexes (CPIs). See also the PWR website for the raw data for prices, wages and rents.
Money and modernization in early modern England Financial History Review (2018) 25 (3): 231-261
Short abstract: Increasing levels of monetization supported economic growth in early modern England
Measuring monetary policy deviations from the Taylor rule Economics Letters (2018) 168: 25–27 (with J. Madeira)
Short abstract: We estimate deviations of the federal funds rate from the Taylor rule by taking into account the endogeneity of output and inflation to changes in interest rates, which can lead to a large quantitative difference relative to the standard method.
Appendix and replication files (alternative link here).
Reconstruction of money supply over the long-run: the case of England, 1270-1870 Economic History Review (2018) 71 (2): 373–392.
Short abstract: I use a new methodology to provide a time-series of coin and money supply for six centuries of English history.
The data from this paper is included in the Bank of England’s Historical Database: "a millennium of macroeconomic data". Also in the UK Historical Data Repository website, developed jointly by the Bank of England, ESCoE and the Office for National Statistics (see here and here).
Harbingers of Modernity: Monetary Injections and European Economic Growth, 1492-1790 European Review of Economic History (2017) 21 (4): 435–436
PhD dissertation summary
preprint version, also available here.
Sailing away from Malthus: intercontinental trade and European economic growth, 1500-1800 Cliometrica (2016) 10 (2): 129-149
Short abstract: Intercontinental trade played an important role in promoting European economic growth and urbanization during the early modern period.
Data & replication code: please see below under "The great escape"; these are the same as in that paper.
The great escape? the contribution of the empire to Portugal's economic growth, 1500-1800 European Review of Economic History (2015) 19 (1): 1-22 (with Leonor F. Costa and Jaime Reis)
Short abstract: In the heyday of colonial expansion, eliminating the economic links to empire would have reduced Portugal’s per capita income by at least one fifth.
"Editor's choice" (lead article)
data. Note: this is the data concerning Portugal. The data for all other countries as well as the replication code was provided to us by Robert Allen. As these do not "belong" to us, they are not shared here, hence we encourage interested scholars to contact him for them. Portugal's data can then be added to that dataset and replication file using the data shared here.
History of economics or a selected history of economics? Journal of the History of Economic Thought (2008) 30 (1): 93-104
Short abstract: Historians of economic thought need to pay more attention to modern economics.
Book chapters
Money and prices in England and Spain, 1470-1844. In: Bullion Trade in the Medieval and Early Modern Period (ed.: Roman Zaroal). Palgrave, forthcoming (with Yao Chen, Ryland Thomas, Nicholas Mayhew and Felix Ward)
Patterns of Iberian economic growth during the early modern period. In: An Economic History of the Iberian Peninsula, 700-2000 (ed. Pedro Lains) . Cambridge University Press, forthcoming (with Carlos Santiago-Caballero)
The fruits of El Dorado: the global impact of American precious metals. In: The Fruits of the Early Globalization: An Iberian Perspective, eds. R. Dobado and A. Garcia-Hiernaux (2021). Palgrave Macmillan (with Leticia Arroyo Abad)
Historical account books as a source for quantitative history. In: History and Economic Life: A Student’s Guide to approaching Economic and Social History sources, edited by G. Christ and P. Roessner (2020). Routledge Guides to Using Historical Sources, Routledge
American precious metals and their consequences for early modern Europe. In: Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, edited by Stefano Battilossi, Youssef Cassis and Kazuhiko Yago (2020). Springer
Historical National Accounting. In: An Economist’s Guide to Economic History, edited by M. Blum and C. Colvin (2018). Palgrave Macmillan (with Herman de Jong)
Liquidity provision under commitment in monetary policy: when did an Epstein-North consensus become possible? In: Why Do Societies Prosper? The 2014 Charles Street Symposium Essays, London: The Legatum Institute.
First prize. Judging Panel: Victoria Bateman (University of Cambridge), Tim Besley (LSE) and Emma Duncan (Deputy Editor, The Economist).
Legatum Institute announcement, and an interview with the winners
The science of things generally?, in Lionel Robbins's Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science: 75th Anniversary Conference Proceedings, ed. A. Witztum and F. Cowell (2009). London: London School of Economics, STICERD, 389-404 (with J. L. Cardoso)
Book Reviews
Book review of S. Broadberry and K. Fukao (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of the Modern World: Volume 1, 1700 to 1870. Journal of Economic Literature (2022) 60 (2): 648-650.
Book review (in Portuguese) of Duncan Simpson, A Igreja Católica e o Estado Novo Salazarista. Análise Social (2018), Vol. LIII (3.º), N.º 228, 805-809
Book review of Joerg Baten (ed), A History of the Global Economy: 1500 to the Present. The Low Countries Journal of Social and Economic History (2017) 14 (1): 134
Book review of Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen, British Economic Growth, 1270-1870. Journal of British Studies (2016) 55 (3): 613-615
Book review of Costa, Lains and Miranda, "História Económica de Portugal (1143-2010)" e-Journal of Portuguese History (2012) 10 (2)
Editorial notes
Introduction to a special issue on "Productivity revolutions: past and future". Manchester School (2024), forthcoming
Introduction to a special issue on the economic history of Portugal. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History (2020) 38, Special Issue 1: 7-10
Book
As causas do atraso português. Alfragide: D. Quixote (2023).
Figure from Chen, Palma and Ward (2021)
Figure from Palma, Papadia, Pereira and Weller (2021)