“The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks”, with Johannes Beutel, Lorenz Emter, Esteban Prieto and Yves S. Schüler. Journal of International Money and Finance, 156, 103342, 2025. [Financial Times media coverage]
“Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles”, with Esteban Prieto. European Economic Review, 172, 104916, 2025. [Replication files]
“Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies”. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103536, 2021. [Replication files]
“Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking”, with Johannes Beutel and Valentin Stockerl. Journal of Monetary Economics, 120, 53-69, 2021.
“The synchronization of credit cycles”, with Barbara Meller. Journal of Banking and Finance, 82, 98-111, 2017.
“Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks”, with Björn Hilberg and Michael Grill. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2016, 72, 67-80, 2016.
“How does the stock market respond to changes in bank lending standards?” Economics Letters, 144, 92-97, 2016.
“The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union”, with Mihaly T. Borsi. Empirical Economics, 48(2), 657-681, 2015. Winner of the 2014/2015 Empirical Economics Lawrence R. Klein Award for outstanding papers in the field of Empirical Economics.
“Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone”. Economics Letters, 117, 35-38, 2012.
“Global financial stress and financial transmission channels”, with Sandra Eickmeier, Josefine Quast and Sabine Tanneberger. In: Handbook of Financial Integration, G. Caporale (Ed.), Edward Elgar Publishing, Chapter 6, 134-171, 2024.
“Linkages between stock market fluctuations and business cycles in Asia”, with Bertrand Candelon. In: The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 9), Cheung, Y.-W., Kakkar, V., Ma, G. (Ed.), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, Chapter 2, 23-51, 2011.
“Geopolitical hybrid threats”, with Martin Völpel. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 11/2026]
“Shaping the financial cycle through monetary policy”, with Martin Kliem. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 33/2025]
“Global financial transmission of geopolitical risk shocks”. [SSRN]
“Monetary policy, central bank information, and bank lending: Evidence from German banks”, with Sophia List. R&R at: Journal of Macroeconomics. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 06/2025]
“What moves households' expectations during a crisis? Evidence from a randomized information experiment”, with Valentin Stockerl. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 42/2024]
“The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty”, with Esteban Prieto. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 32/2023] [SSRN]
“Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy”, with Sandra Eickmeier and Esteban Prieto. R&R at: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 42/2016] [Bundesbank Research Brief] [IWH Halle Discussion Paper] [CAMA Working Paper] [CEPR Discussion Paper].
“Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation”, with co-authors. Report of the ECB/ESRB workstream on financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation, 2026. [Link to report]
“Geopolitical risks: impact on financial stability”, with co-authors. Deutsche Bundesbank, Financial Stability Review 2024, Chapter 4. [Link to FSR]
“A financial stress indicator for Germany”. Deutsche Bundesbank, Technical Paper No. 10/2024. [Link to paper]
“A composite indicator of financial conditions for Germany”. Deutsche Bundesbank, Technical Paper No. 03/2022. [Link to paper]
“Macroprudential policy and growth-at-risk”, with co-authors. Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report. July 2021, 65-83. [Link to chapter]
“The impact of uncertainty on real economic activity”, with co-authors. Deutsche Bundesbank, Financial Stability Review 2020, 19-20. [Link to FSR]
“Financial cycles in the euro area”, with co-authors. Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report. January 2019, 51-74. [Link to chapter]
“The relationship between political uncertainty and financial market volatility”. Deutsche Bundesbank, Financial Stability Review 2017, 26-28. [Link to FSR]
“Monetary policy, risk appetite and financial stability”. Deutsche Bundesbank, Financial Stability Review 2014, 18-19. [Link to FSR]
“Social distancing and the macrofinancial consequences of natural disasters”, with Johannes Beutel and Friederike Fourné. [SSRN]
Disentangling economic recessions and depressions, with Bertrand Candelon and Stefan Straetmans. [Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 43/2013]