NBA Picks and Parlays Money Back Guarantee
NBA Picks and Parlays Money Back Guarantee
Money Back NBA picks and parlays. Guaranteed winners or your money back. 63%+ record. There are hundreds of cappers and tipsters providing nba picks and parlays. The only problem: their nba picks and parlays number 5-8 a DAY! That means your bankroll would have to be $10k+ considering many of these handicappers charge $500/month+ (sometimes a week) for their picks.
I mean, when you're throwing out 5-8 picks and parlays a day you’re stretched very thin. One bad week, one bad month and all your profits are gone. Sports investing is not like FOREX, it require much more analysis and a conservative approach to profit month in, month out.
WHAT WE OFFER
1 parlay pick a week. That’s right. Just 1. Odds of +100 (2.0) or better guaranteed. And to sweeten the deal, if the parlay/prediction fails…you get a full refund. That's right -our nba picks and parlays come with a 100% money back guarantee.
HOW THIS ALL WORKS -THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE PROFITS
If you’ve ever watched CBS, ESPN or any sports show you’ll know that there a million different stats: from shooting percentages, to assists, to average pitch speed. We’ve combined the most important statistics for every sport into one model (for the stats men or women out there, please refer to the poisson distribution model).
This enables us to drill down to and provide the best NBA predictions, picks and parlays. It works for MLB, NFL, college basketball and college football and soccer. We analyse 50+ games a week and narrow it down to a 2 team parlay.
HOW YOU CAN TEST OUR MLB,SOCCER, NFL, NBA PREDICTIONS, PICKS and PARLAYS
Every 12 weeks, we open up our doors to a few more clients. While 90% of our clients are experienced sports investors, we're always here to answer newbie questions about the different types of picks, how large your bankroll(investment) should be and any other industry related questions you may have.
And the #1 question all new clients ask is..? Are you legit?
Now, we could refer you to the video above from when we launched for the first time which is still the only video verified account which shows us going from a bankroll of $1500 to over $50,000 in 9 days. Or we could tell you about our years of experience and system based on over 15,000 games of data.
But that's not what we're about. We put our money where our mouth is -which is why we're the only advisers who offer a full money back guarantee on every. single. pick!
Interested? Email firstname.lastname@example.org or register at http://www.thewolfofsports.com. Otherwise, DM us on instagram
MLB,NFL, NBA predictions picks and parlays
Latest Picks and Parlays and Predictions
Now that the NBA all-star show is over, we can move on to the next week of games that will help shape the eastern and western conference. But just in case you missed the show –we’re referring to the NBA all-star game – here’s a very brief recap.
Team LeBron beat Team Giannis 164-178 in what was a dunking, free throwing and celebrity gazing spectacle. As the bookies predicted, the top NBA picks and predictions came through with Giannis and Durant being the top scorers for their respective teams. A $20 parlay on the each of the three different combinations would have returned a $165 profit.
Looking at the upcoming games the two that have really caught our eye are the 76ers and the Heat, as well as the Mavericks vs the Nuggets.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat
There are a few sub plots and strategies that we’re looking forward to in this game not only from an odds standpoint, but also from a tactical standpoint. While it will no doubt impact our nba picks and parlays for this round, as lovers of the game, we’re keen to see how the 76ers go without Joel Embiid who is expected to be sidelined for the next few matches through injury. Will Ben Simmons step up for Australian heritage night? Will Boban, the 7ft 3 inch John Wick assassin play more minutes and enhance is his “statistical G.O.A.T” claim?
With the 76ers odds of a win blowing out somewhat the bookies obviously think that Joel Embiid’s injury will have a short-term impact. And to a certain extent they are right –Embiid is one of the top 3 big guys in the league. However, the 76ers brought in Tobias Harris for just this reason i.e. to further strengthen their offensive live and make sure it doesn’t all rest on Embiid. And with Ben Simmons playing the part, it’s hard to see the 76ers falling off the rails while Embiid recuperates.
There is also the Boban factor. Interestingly, we read that teams have a 70%+ win rate when he starts. While he is sure to get more game time, it’s difficult to see him play more than 25 minutes. Yet, given his record this year, that’s more than enough for him to record a double –double if the 76ers were to win –a worthy parlay right there.
Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
We were going to promote this game as Doncic v Jokic but now that Doncic is likely to miss with injury it is more likely to be Jokic vs the Mavericks. Nikola Jokic has been in incredible form this year and has absolutely justified Denver’s decision to make him their franchise player. He’s been dropping assists and game winning baskets like its child’s play and it will be interesting to see how the Mavericks attempt to contain him. Do they try to limit his scoring or do they try to limit his offensive play-making abilities? Given his current form, it seems little they can do. The question is whether or not he can score a double-double or a triple-double to help the Nuggets get over the line?
For more guaranteed nba picks and parlays, and other best bets for this month and for today, connect with our team and start taking on the bookies at their own game.
Picks and Parlays Advice From Our Guest Sports Betting Analyst
We recently invited Justin from out technical analysis team to give his thoughts on what he's found out after analysing tens of thousands of profitable nba picks and parlays and his own mix of guaranteed tips which we use.
Q: How Picks and Parlays can be Profitable?
You will see some sports handicappers out there who think that picks and parlays are fool bets and should never by the bettor. With all due respect to our peers, we are going to disagree with that statement and show how value bettors can actually use parlays as a tool to win more money. However, it should be noted that for the average bettor who doesn’t win a high percentile of his bet’s parlays can be fateful for a bankroll.
Let’s have a look at what we would call the average bettor, which is someone betting without an asset. If this player is using a -110-line set book and his sports picks are not good than a coin flip, then on straight wagers his loss expectation is 4.55%. The standard -110 line set book will have parlay odds of 13/5 on two-teamers and 6/1 on three-team parlays. If our average bettor bets parlays instead of straight bet’s then his chances of winning a two-team parlay should be 25% (50% x 50%) and his chances of winning a three-teamer would be 12.5% (50% x 50% x 50%). His loss expectations can then be figured:
Two team parlays: 25% (chance of winning the parlay) x 13/5 (return on a win) then subtract 75% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (amount lost on an unsuccessful wager) to come up with a 10% loss expectation.
Three-team parlays: 12.5% (chance of winning the parlay) x 6 (return on a win) then subtract 87.5% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (amount lost on an unsuccessful wager) to come up with a 12.5% loss.
You can see with the numbers above that the average bettor is much worse off betting on parlays than doing straight wagers. This is where the analysis stops for most handicappers out there and most sports bettors. Truthfully, it probably should since they are not going to be able to hit more than 50% of their wagers anyway.
But what about sports bettors who have an advantage? Expert sports handicappers and professional gamblers are able to win more than 52.4% of their wagers and many are able to achieve results of 55% or better over the course of a season. Let’s have a look at the profit/loss expectation for a bettor who wins 55% of their bets:
Straight wagers: 55% (number of wins) x 100 + 45% x -100 for 5% profit expectation.
Two-team parlays: first figure out the winning percentile of the two-teamer – 55% (win percentage on each game of the parlay) x 55% = 30.25%. So, our formula is now 30.25% x 13/5 (return on win) then subtract 69.75% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (loss on a losing parlay) to get a profit expectation of 8.9%.
Three-team parlays: Odds of winning the three-teamer: 55% x 55% x 55% = 16.6375%. The formula is thus 16.6375% x 6 (return on winning parlay) subtract 83.3625% x 1 to get a profit expectation of 16.463%.
There you have it. If you are the kind of better that can hit 55% of your bets then parlays will give you a much higher profit expectation should only increase as you increase the number of teams in your parlay, however, in doing so you drastically increase your risk. An extreme example would be betting a 25- team parlay with fair parlay odds of 10,487,336/1. A 55% bettor should have a profit expectation of 238.64% but you have to look at the 0.0000323% chance of you actually winning one of these.
Even if you aren’t a 55% bettor, parlays can still be advantageous to you if you use correlated bets. If style of play will dictate the winner of a game, then taking the slower paced team to win plus going with the under should give you good odds than if the side and total were independent events.
NBA Betting Tips for Beginners
As an NBA lover who loves a bet and has been at it for a while, we know how confusing things can be at the outset of your NBA betting journey.
We have decided to put together a post of NBA betting tips to help you get the most of your attempts starting out. These tips have the aim of helping you succeed this season and in many seasons to come.
The early-season games are generally referred to us as “betting poison”, however as the season goes on and you gather more information about the performance of teams, trends can be found, and bets can be won. Many winning bettors don’t place many bets early in the season because of the unpredictability.
Follow the tips and you will get a better idea of how to build the knowledge necessary to build a solid betting system that helps you win your bets during the NBA season.
If you are into more than just NBA betting, we suggest heading over here for some quality sports betting tips.
The NBA is a League Driven by Superstars
It’s no surprise that NBA is a star-driven competition. The biggest names in the NBA are some of the biggest names in world sport, despite the league itself being a relative minnow on the world-stage.
The current trend of roster building in the is heading toward organisation trying to build “super teams” with two or three superstar players. Miami put together a few great seasons with James, Wade and Bosh while Warriors have brought together Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.
How is the knowledge that the NBA is star-driven useful to a bettor?
To know of why this is important, you need to understand how the bookies set lines for each game. Bookmakers know that the newbie bettors are enamoured by the superstars, so when they et lines they often adjust them against the best teams and players. They can do this because they predict that fans of NBA will bet on them anyway.
The bookmakers prefer a balanced book of takings on each game. To do this they set lines in a way that will encourage equal bets to both sides of the market. Then, when they think a superstar team or player has a large group of biased bettors, they will move the line against them to encourage bets to be placed on the other side of the market to even the books.
Understanding that the NBA is a star-driven league can help you find the cracks in the markets.
Team Travel Schedules
Home teams in the NBA do better than road teams, that’s just a well-known fact, and is pretty much a given for any league in sports.
As with back-to-back games, it’s important to understand how much better the average improvement is for a home team and how much worse teams perform on the road. It’s not enough to know that home teams perform better, the more important part of this is how much.
The NBA schedule creates many different variables that bettors need to admit. Road teams playing the 2nd gamed of back-to-back schedule are at an even larger disadvantage. But you also need to factor in how far a team has to travel. For example, when Brooklyn travel to New York it’s much different than when Houston travel to Dallas.
Playing games on a back-to-back schedule is one of the hardest things on teams, particularly teams that are very young, or very old. If you follow performance of a team’s back-to-back schedule, the trends become obvious.
Bookies know this as well and adjust their line to account for the second night of a team’s back-to-back. The uninformed NBA bettor rarely takes this into account, so in order to balance the action, often the betting lines aren’t adjusted far enough.
It’s important to remember that teams typically don’t play as well on a back-to-back schedule. The 1st night of a back-to-back can also be influenced, with coach’s resting players with the knowledge that they will have to play again the following night. Minutes restrictions come into paly here, so perhaps deduct a point or two on the first night also.
When you realize how far the expected drop off is for teams on a B2B, you can start shopping for betting lines that offer value.
Don’t Jump on the Rookie Hype Trains
A new group of rookies enter the NBA every year and the media coverage makes them seem like they will take over the league in their first year.
It’s important that you take these hype reels with a grain of salt. Rarely does an NBA rookie have he impact equal to their ESPN hype reel.
Winning NBA bettors work with facts and hard statistics, something that zero rookies have entering the league. Bettors are using real, hard earned money and can’t afford to make bets based on hype. Rookies are the drivers behind many of the early-season betting markets, so make sure you don’t get sucked into the hype.
We generally prefer a money line bet over a Spread and that’s probably because we love a 3-4 leg parlay. This is not because the money line offers more value, but because we evaluate games for the money line better.
This is something you should also do. Find one type of bet and learn how to identify the value on a consistent basis before you start diving into other NBA bet types.
Here’s how we assess NBA games for money line bets.
Firstly, we look for a home team that has more rest than their visiting opponent. A home team with rest vs a visiting team on a B2B creates a situation that is perfect for a line that doesn’t match the expectation of inexperienced NBA bettors.
The value is even better if the home team is an underdog.
Totals Points Betting
Most sports markets have total lines as an option. In some places, like Australia, they are also referred to as over/under lines. Totals are a bet on the total combined score of each team being over or under the total points line offered by the bookie.
A total or over/under points line of 227 means that if you take the over, the two teams must combine for 228 points or more for you to win. If you take the under, they must combine for 226 points or less for a winning bet result.
Some teams score more than others, and some have better defensive units than others. But you can’t make the mistake of thinking that it’s easier or requires less work to bet on totals.
What is Your View On Live NBA Betting?
More NBA bettors than ever are taking advantages of in-game betting. Until many online books started offering it, in-game sports betting was only available on a private one-to-one basis between a bettor and friends.
Just like prop bets, you can find a wide range of live-betting options. This simple live-bets involve totals and which team wins each quarter or half.
NBA offers a few unique opportunities for in-game live betting too. If you have plenty of NBA games, you have probably noticed that frequently one team extends to a big lead that makes it look like the game is over. But, as is often the case, the final score ends up much closer than it seemed like it would early in the game.
You've Recently Started Betting on the Indian Premier League (IPL) -What Are Your Thoughts?
Indian Premier League (IPL) is a very famous league around the world for high pressure matches as well as for gambling. The big gamblers around the world bets on each match of this league. There are 60 matches played each year in IPL and bettors are bets on every match. The most popular team to bet on is CSK (Chennai Super Kings). The other big teams are KKR (Kolkata Knight Riders), MI (Mumbai Indians) and/or SRH (Sun Risers Hyderabad). The most unpredictable team in this league is RCB (Royal Challengers Bangalore). On his day, they can chase even 230+, and a bad day, they can get out on less than 50. So, you should think much to bet on this team.
In this ongoing season, CSK has been most successful team and on top of the table with just 1 match to lose. CSK home record is very impressive and won 75% of their matches when they played at home. So, you can bet on this team without much hesitation. The RCB away home record is very bad, and they win rarely on away home. You can bet on them at home matches, because in home matches, RCB is most favourite team in IPL. This team have broken many records on his home ground.
In my devise, you should avoid betting on DC (Delhi Capitals) and RR (Rajasthan Royals) because they are the poor teams by seeing the current and previous seasons. Another unpredictable team is KXIP (Kings XI Punjab). They can also win the impossible matches on his day.
You can also bet on many big players like Andre Russel, Kieron Pollard, Chris Gayle, AB De Villiers, Virat Kohli David Miller, David Warner and MS Dhoni etc. The hot favourite player is Andre Russel in this season due to his hot form.