Working Papers

The role of macroeconomic policy in explaining China's current account surplus, accepted Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

I assess how much of China's current account surplus can be explained by government policy of capital controls and foreign reserve accumulation to meet an exchange rate target, during a period of rapid productivity growth. My model can generate the increase observed in China's current account surplus and foreign reserve holdings. I find that half of the peak in China's current account surplus can be explained by its capital control policies and half by its exchange rate policies. Under an open capital account and floating exchange rate, China would have run a current account deficit of 6 percent of GDP. Online Appendix

The effect of school closures on standardized test scores: Evidence from a zero-COVID environment 

Pandemic school closures were widespread but occurred together with COVID-19 health effects. Australia’s successful COVID-19 elimination policies provide a unique setting to study the effect of school closures on learning loss absent significant health effects. We exploit variation in the duration of school closures across Australian regions of 9-157 school days and student-level test score data from a national standardized test with high participation to estimate learning loss. Learning loss was substantially smaller than comparable estimates from the literature, including for disadvantaged socioeconomic groups. 

The effect of investor credit supply on housing prices 

What is the effect of investor credit supply on housing prices? We provide causal evidence using quasi-experimental variation in credit supply to investors caused by two macroprudential policies implemented in Australia. The first policy placed a bank-level cap on mortgage credit growth to investors. The second policy placed a bank-level cap on interest-only lending, which is predominantly used by investors. Both policies caused a large and sharp reduction in new investor lending relative to new owner-occupier lending. We examine the effect of these policies on the housing market using unit-record data on property sales and listings. We show that the restrictions on investor lending reduced the share of properties purchased by investors and reduced the relative price of properties in investor segments of the market. 

Global Imbalances and the Global Savings Glut - A Panel Data Assessment with Anthony Legg and Tim Robinson

Publications

Political Attitudes and Inflation Expectations: Evidence and Implications with Christian Gillitzer and Tim Robinson, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2020 Online Appendix

The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections with Christian Gillitzer, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018  Online Appendix

Sterilized Interventions and Capital Controls, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018 Online Appendix

Improving Median Housing Price Indexes Through Stratification with Anthony Richards, Journal of Real Estate Research, 2008.

Measuring Housing Prices: An Update with James and Anthony Richards, RBA Bulletin, June 2006.