Working Papers
"Transportation Bottlenecks and Aggregate Shocks", 2026, with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou, and Yixin Zhou, new paper!!
"Investment in Infrastructure and Trade: The Case of Ports", 2025, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Accepted, Journal of Political Economy
Featured in: NBER Digest
Publications and Forthcoming
"Rigidities in Transportation and Supply Chain Disruptions", 2025, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Forthcoming, AER Papers and Proceedings
"Industrial Policy: Lessons from Shipbuilding", 2024, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Journal of Economic Perspectives
"Counterfactual Analysis for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2023, with Yuichi Kitamura, Lucas Lima and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Forthcoming, Review of Economic Studies
"Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China's Shipbuilding Industry", 2023, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Review of Economic Studies
Featured in: LSE Business Review, VoxEU, VoxChina, ChinaEconTalk, The Economist, Cato Institute, QUARTZ, Project Syndicate
"Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transport Markets", 2023, with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou and Nicola Rosaia, Quarterly Journal of Economics
"The Impact of Oil Prices on World Trade", 2022, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Review of International Economics
"Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Quantitative Economics, 20(2)
Award for best econometrics paper, Brazilian Econometric Society Meetings
"Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Journal of Econometrics, 222(1C), 778-804
"Geography, Transportation and Endogenous Trade Costs", 2020, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Econometrica, 88(2),657-691
Recipient of the Frisch Medal (for best paper published in Econometrica in the previous four years)
Featured in: QUARTZ, Microeconomic Insights, Econofact, MarketWatch
This paper previously circulated under the title "Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs" (NBER Working Paper 23581)
"A Guide to Estimating Matching Functions in Spatial Models", 2019, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, IJIO (Special Issue)
"Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of Chinese Shipbuilding", 2018, Review of Economic Studies, 85(2), 1111–1158
Featured in: The Economist in 2014, VoxEU, Microeconomic Insights, LSE Business Review, The Washington Post, The Economist in 2023
“On the Non-Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Games”, 2016, with Paul T. Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol.50, 362-371 (Special Issue EARIE 2015 Munich)
"Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping", 2014, American Economic Review, 104(2): 564-608
"From Market Shares to Consumer Types: Duality in Differentiated Product Demand Estimation", 2012, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(2): 333-342
Work in Progress
"Network Formation and Competition in Container Shipping", with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou, and Nicola Rosaia
"Port Congestion Pricing", with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, and Nicola Rosaia