Emerging economics exhibit distinct institutional characteristics, such as large informal sectors, limited formal supports like unemployment insurance, and heightened economic and political uncertainty.
Within these contexts, my research investigates issues of brain drain and brain gain, the development of human capital, and the challenges of data quality.
Working Papers
Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling Reform on Early Childhood Development in a Middle-Income Country (with Yusuf Emre Akgündüz, Pelin Akyol, Abdurrahman B. Aydemir & Murat G. Kırdar)
This paper explores the intergenerational effects of the 1997 compulsory schooling reform in Turkey, which extended compulsory schooling from five to eight years, on the developmental outcomes of children aged 36 to 59 months. We draw upon data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which features a comprehensive module on early childhood development (ECD), and estimate the impact of mothers’ exposure to education reform using RDD. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in maternal educational attainment and corresponding enhancements in children’s readiness to learn. Exploring the underlying mechanisms, we find a notable expansion in the number and variety of activities parents, especially fathers, engage in with their children. In a further examination of parental outcomes, we find evidence pointing to narrower educational and age disparities between partners, suggesting an improvement in mothers’ agency— aligned with the heightened engagement of fathers with their children. Despite the typical emphasis on mothers in ECD research, our study indicates a significant enhancement in fathers’ involvement with their children accompanied by improvement in children’s cognitive outcomes.
Publications
Post-Compulsory Schooling of Youth in Turkey: A Case of Pro-cyclical Enrollment (International Journal of Manpower, 2024)
This study investigates the effect of business cycles on school enrollment in Turkey. During recessions, school enrollment might increase as opportunity cost of schooling declines, yet it might also decrease because of reduced income households have for education. Which effect dominates depends on the context. We empirically explore this in a context displaying canonical features of developing countries. Using the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey data for a period covering the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of unemployment rate separately for enrollments in general and vocational high schools and in undergraduate programs. To understand the cyclicality, we use a probit model with the regional and time variations in unemployment rates. We also build a simple theoretical model of work-schooling choice to interpret the findings. We find that the likelihood of enrolling in general high schools and undergraduate programs declines with higher adult unemployment rates, but the likelihood of enrollment in vocational high schools increases. Confronting these empirical findings with the theoretical model suggests that the major factor in enrollment cyclicality in Turkey is how parental resources allocated to education change during recessions by schooling type. Our finding of pro-cyclical enrollment in academically oriented programs is in contrast with counter-cyclicality documented for similar programs in developed countries, which highlights the importance of income related factors in developing-country contexts. Our heterogeneous findings for general and vocational high schools are also novel.
Youth Responses to Political Populism: Education Abroad as a Step toward Emigration (Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023)
(EAF Discussion Paper No 2123)
Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, student migration patterns from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia are explored as cases constituting early examples of authoritarian populism. The estimates show that the rise of authoritarianism after the closely contested elections that result in favor of the populist leaders in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Finding limited evidence for worsening higher education options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign education to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. The emigration of skilled citizens from developing countries as a consequence of political populism is likely to constitute a threat to the economic performance of these countries in the long term.
Reasons for the Decline in the Population of Turkish Republic Citizens Pursuing Doctoral Education Abroad (METU Studies in Development, 2022)
This study finds a decline in both the number of Turkish citizens pursuing doctoral education in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries during 2013–2016 and in the United States during 2005–2015, as well as in their share among all international students. Regression analyses show that this decline can be explained by two factors. The first is that countries where science has advanced more rapidly than in Turkey have seen increasing numbers of their citizens studying in OECD countries and the United States. The second is the expansion of doctoral program capacity within Turkish universities. The effect of the first factor is found to be greater than that of the second. This finding indicates that Turkey has fallen behind in the intensifying global competition for participation in international doctoral programs. The potential implications of this lag for Turkey’s higher education system are discussed in the final section of the study.
(Boğaziçi Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 2021)
We document the implications of the 2014 revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey and offer guidance on how to handle the irregularities in population and unemployment statistics that resulted from two particular revisions. First, new population projections were adopted to assign survey weights. Second, a narrower definition of unemployment was adopted. We propose methods to adjust the survey weights for the pre-2014 period in order to discern changes in population statistics by age groups and regions without interruption over time and to calculate the unemployment rates according to both broader and narrower definitions since 2004.
(Journal of Higher Education and Science, 2020)
This study analyzes the education and post-graduation residency choices of Turkish students who pursue higher education abroad, with a particular focus on the United States. The findings show that most students enroll in master’s and doctoral programs, often in technical fields such as engineering and computing, and a significant share study at globally prestigious institutions. While this represents an important academic resource for Turkey, the long-term benefits depend on whether graduates return after completing their studies. Evidence in this paper shows that nearly 70 percent of Turkish master’s and doctoral graduates initially remain in the United States after graduation, and only about 40 percent return to Turkey within ten years.