Bio
I'm a Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, where I've taught since 2013. I was previously a faculty member at Australian National University and received my PhD in Politics from Princeton University in September 2011. I have broad research interests across comparative politics, formal and quantitative methodology, and political economy, with a focus on democratization and autocratic elections. In my 2021 book, Shock to the System: Coups, Elections, and War on the Road to Democratization, I argue that democratization typically stems from either violent elite shocks or elections that maintain a significant share of power for the ruling party.
I recently helped start a project called Authoritarian Warning Survey, which involves democracy scholars evaluating threats to American democracy through a survey and rapid reactions to current events. Follow us at our website and at @authwarning.
Publications
Shock to the System: Coups, Elections, and War on the Road to Democratization. 2021. Princeton University Press. Link, Amazon, Online Appendix
Positively reviewed in Perspectives on Politics, Journal of Peace Research, Governance, Democratization, and European Political Science
“How Little and Meng's Objective Approach Fails in Democracies.” Forthcoming. PS: Political Science & Politics.
“How Authoritarian Regimes Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany,” with Julian Michel and Margaret E. Peters. 2023. International Organization 77: 527-63.
“Emigration and Political Contestation,” with Margaret E. Peters. 2022. International Studies Quarterly 66(1).
“Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Ruling Parties after Democratization.” 2021. British Journal of Political Science 51(2): 559-83. PDF
“A Republic, If You Can Keep It: Breakdown and Erosion in Modern Democracies.” 2021. Journal of Politics 83(1): 198-213. PDF
“Restraining the Huddled Masses: Migration Policy and Autocratic Survival,” with Margaret E. Peters. 2020. British Journal of Political Science 50(2): 503-33. PDF
“The Autocratic Ruling Parties Dataset: Origins, Durability, and Death.” 2020. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(4): 756-82. PDF
“The Strategic Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism.” 2020. British Journal of Political Science 50(1): 17-44. PDF
“Social Mobility and Democratic Attitudes: Evidence from Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa,” with Christian Houle. 2019. Comparative Political Studies 52(11): 1610-47. PDF
“Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion,” with Michael Joseph and Dorothy Ohl. 2018. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(2): 410-41. PDF
“Safeguarding Democracy: Powersharing and Democratic Survival,” with Benjamin T. Graham and Kaare Strøm. 2017. American Political Science Review 111(4): 686-704. PDF
“Reanalysis: Are Coups Good for Democracy?” 2016. Research & Politics 3(4) December. PDF
“Democracy by Example? Why Democracy Spreads When the World's Democracies Prosper.” 2016. Comparative Politics 49(1): 83-116. PDF
“Electoral Authoritarianism and Human Development.” 2015. Comparative Political Studies 48(12): 1526-62. PDF
Won James Caporaso Award for best article published in CPS in 2015.
“Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development since 1815.” 2015. British Journal of Political Science 45(3): 501-30. PDF
“Elections, Information, and Policy Responsiveness in Autocratic Regimes.” 2015. Comparative Political Studies 48(6): 691-727. PDF
“Public Support for Democracy in Transitional Regimes,” with Juliet Pietsch and Jeffrey Karp. 2015. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 25(1): 1-9.
“A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800-2007,” with Carles Boix and Sebastian Rosato. 2013. Comparative Political Studies 46(12): 1523-54. PDF
“Electoral Authoritarianism and Democracy: A Formal Model of Regime Transitions.” 2013. Journal of Theoretical Politics 25(2): 153-81. PDF
Won Elinor Ostrom Prize for best article published in JTP in 2013.
“For the Win! The Effect of Professional Sports Records on Mayoral Elections.” 2013. Social Science Quarterly 94(1): 59-78. PDF
“Economic Development, Violent Leader Removal, and Democratization.” 2012. American Journal of Political Science 56(4): 1002-20. PDF
“The Patron's Dilemma: The Dynamics of Foreign-Supported Democratization,” with Michael K. McKoy. 2012. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56(5): 904-32. PDF
“Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election,” with Guanchun Wang, Sanjeev R. Kulkarni, H. Vincent Poor, and Daniel Osherson. 2012. Politics & Policy 40(6): 1019-52. PDF
“Seizing the Mantle of Change: Modeling Candidate Quality as Effectiveness Instead of Valence.” 2011. Journal of Theoretical Politics 23(1): 52-68. PDF
“Methods for Distance-Based Judgment Aggregation,” with Daniel Osherson. 2009. Social Choice and Welfare 32(4): 575-601. PDF
“Social Choice Theory Without Pareto: The Pivotal Voter Approach.” 2009. Mathematical Social Sciences 58(2): 251-5. PDF
“Judgment Aggregation and Subjective Decision-Making.” 2008. Economics and Philosophy 24(2): 205-31. PDF
Current Projects
Book project: Restraining the Huddled Masses, with Margaret E. Peters (on migration from autocracies)
“Social Mobility and Populist Voting,” with Christian Houle.
“Prospect Theory, Moral Psychology, and Political Theory.”
“Cat, the State, and War,” with Michael Joseph.
“The Uses and Abuses of Matching in Political Science.” Under review. PDF
Other Work
Three-book review essay: “Elections in Hard Places.” 2023. Perspectives on Politics 21(2): 669-73.
“Leaders Shirking Their Nations' Democratic Facades More Brazenly.” 2018. The Hill. Link
“Better Democracy Promotion Through Immigration,” with Margaret E. Peters. 2018. Lawfare. Link
“How the U.S. Can Prepare for a Major Election Hack.” 2018. The Monkey Cage, Washington Post. Link
“Causal Models of Democratization,” with Carles Boix. 2018. Sage Handbook of Political Sociology.
“When Democracies Are Under Attack, It's Time to Rein in Executive Power,” with Benjamin A.T. Graham and Kaare W. Strøm. 2017. The Monkey Cage, Washington Post. Link
“A New Expert Survey Finds Warning Signs for the State of American Democracy.” 2017. The Monkey Cage, Washington Post. Link
Public Opinion and Democracy in Transitional Regimes: A Comparative Perspective, edited with Juliet Pietsch and Jeffrey Karp. 2016. Routledge. Link
“The Surprising Benefits of Autocratic Elections.” 2015. The Monkey Cage, Washington Post. Link
“Freedom's March,” with Carles Boix and Susan Stokes. 2013. Foreign Policy. Link
“Violent Leader Removal and Democratization.” 2011. The Monkey Cage, Washington Post. Link