Research

Working Paper 

"Negative Growth and High Debt: A Survival Analysis Approach"

with Dr. John McDermott [job market paper]

Abstract: 

The paper aims to use the parametric survival analysis to analyze the duration of economic crises to see if they have an association with the occurrence of consecutive years of high public-debt-to-GDP ratios. By comparing the results from five parametric models, including the exponential, the Weibull, the log-normal, the log-logistic, and the generalized gamma regression, all of which have the accelerated failure time (AFT) metric.

"The Impact of Inflation on the Duration of High Debt Episode-A Survival Analysis Approach"

with Dr. John McDermott [Job market paper]

Abstract: 

In this paper, I use the Cox PH model, the exponential model and the Weibull model to analyze the survival experience of high debt episodes and high inflation episodes. I first consider the duration of high debt episodes (HDEs). Across all specifications, HDE duration depends on two variables: (1) the existence of an overlap with a high inflation episode; (2) the growth rate of GDP. These effects are not independent. At high GDP growth, an HIF overlap is associated with a shorter HDE. At low GDP growth, however, an HIF overlap is associated with a longer HDE. I also examine the duration of HIFs, using HDE overlap and GDP growth as regressors. Interestingly, the results are mixed and there is no evidence of interaction between HDE overlap and GDP growth.

"Trade Liberalization and Agricultural Productivity"

Abstract: 

n this project, I investigate the power of trade liberalization on the agricultural development in countries. More specially, I attempt to determine if liberalized countries would have a higher growth rate in agricultural total factor productivity. The generalized linear models and panel fixed effect model were utilized. At the same time,  the difference in difference model was used to show that there is no catch-up effects in the development of agricultural productivity. Developed countries that originally have higher growth rate continue to keep up with higher speed and as a whole, the world shows no convergence in agricultural TFP growth rate between high income and low income countries. 

Conference Presentation

International Atlantic Economic  Society, New York,  Oct, 2018

"Negative Growth and High Debt: A survival Analysis Approach"

Southern Economic Association (SEA), Tampa, FL, Nov. 2017  

"Effect of Inflation on High Debt Episode-A survival Analysis Approach""

Eastern Economic Association(EEA), New York, Feb.2017 

"The impact of Inflation on the Duration of High Debt Episode-Non-Parametric Analysis"

Eastern Economic Association(EEA), Washington D.C., Feb.2016

The Factors affecting Growth Rate of Agricultural TFP''