Miklos Vari

Welcome to my web page! I am currently an Economist at 
The Bank of France. 

My email address is miklos.vari[at]banque-france.fr
I am also on Linkedin

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this web page are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of France.

Research papers:

with Eric Monnet
R&R at Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

This paper explores what history can tell us about the interactions between macroprudential and monetary policy. Based on numerous historical documents, we show that liquidity ratios similar to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) were commonly used as monetary policy tools by central banks between the 1930s and 1980s. We build a model that rationalizes the mechanisms described by contemporary central bankers, in which an increase in the liquidity ratio has contractionary effects, because it reduces the quantity of assets banks can pledge as collateral. This effect, akin to quantity rationing, is more pronounced when excess reserves are scarce.

with William Arrata, Benoît Nguyen and Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau
Journal of Financial Economics (2020)

Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2020)

This paper shows how interbank market fragmentation disrupts the transmission of monetary policy. Fragmentation is the fact that banks, depending on their country of location, have different probabilities of default on their interbank borrowings. Once fragmentation is introduced into standard theoretical models of monetary policy implementation, excess liquidity arises endogenously. This leads short-term interest rates to depart from the central bank policy rates. Using data on cross-border financial flows and monetary policy operations, it is shown that this mechanism has been at work in the Euro-Area since 2008. The model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures.

Policy papers:

with IMF and World Bank co-authors 

with IMF co-authors