Overview

• My research examines measurement of scientific and technological progress, and what levers can be used to accelerate science and technology. During the last 10 years this research has been referenced in all leading international newspapers and magazines. For example, my work is a major building block in the original Abundance essays and is prominently discussed in the Abundance book, which reset the center-left policy agenda globally. In short, my work has played a major part in convincing the center-left that stagnation is real. My impact on center-right policy agenda is more direct. In short, my work has played a major part in convincing the center-right that stagnation is not inevitable.

• For the past 8 years I've taught "AI in Econ", which is now one of the most popular 4th year electives in the university; I created the course to address employer demand for AI skills. The course examines (1) AI as a tool/AI as work, (2) AI applications in Econ, (3) LLM APIs, (4) Latest AI developments, (5) How to use AI to uncover secrets.

• I've also sought to contribute directly to public policy debates on science, technology, and economic stagnation. During Covid I departed from nearly the entire economics profession in that I raised alarm about the human and economic costs and the futility of various Covid policies such as school closures, lockdowns and testing. 

Teaching

Econ 424/626 AI in Economics 

Econ 643 Health Economics

Econ 322 Econometrics I: Intro to the Credibility Revolution   pdf

Econ 101 Introduction to Microeconomics   pdf

Research Papers

Resting on Their Laureates? Research Productivity Among Winners of the Nobel Prize  (with Jay Bhattacharya et al.)          pdf

Submitted

Popularization: The Economist | National Review 

A Machine Learning Analysis of Geographic Localization of Knowledge Flows (with Joel Blit) 

Draft available upon request

Stagnation and Scientific Incentives   (with Jay Bhattacharya)          pdf

Submitted

Popularization: The Economist | National Review 

NIH Funding and the Pursuit of Edge Science  (with Jay Bhattacharya)       pdf

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020)

Popularization: The Economist | SIEPR 

Age and the Trying Out Of New Ideas (with Jay Bhattacharya)        pdf 

Journal of Human Capital (2019)

Popularizations: Nature | Nature Editorial | De Standaard | The Scientist | Fivethirtyeight | Diverse Issues in Higher Education

Edge Factors: Scientific Frontier Positions of Nations         pdf

Scientometrics (2019)

Popularization: Nature Index

Neophilia Ranking of Scientific Journals (with Jay Bhattacharya)        pdf

Scientometrics (2017) 

Popularization: VoxEU

Cities and Ideas (with Jay Bhattacharya)           pdf

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Urban Economics

Popularizations: NBER Digest | NPR | Washington Post/The Switch | Equitable Growth | CityLab | Pacific Standard | World Economic Forum

New Ideas in Invention (with Jay Bhattacharya)           pdf

Revise and Resubmit, Research Policy; Replaces "Words in Patents: Research Inputs and the Value of Innovativeness in Invention" (link to old version)

Popularizations: The Atlantic | Les Affaires 

Opportunities and Benefits as Determinants of the Direction of Scientific Research (with Jay Bhattacharya)       pdf

Journal of Health Economics (2011)    Replaced "Is Medicine An Ivory Tower?" (link to old version with also pharmaceutical industry analysis)

The Other Ex-Ante Moral Hazard in Health (with Jay Bhattacharya)      pdf

Journal of Health Economics (2012)    Earlier version with a less formal model and disease-specific analysis is here.

Popularizations: Marginal Revolution | Boston Globe/Ideas | The Economist/Free Exchange | Baker Institute | Cato Institute | Mercatus Center | Fraser Institute

Inference about Clustering and Parametric Assumptions in Covariance Matrix Estimation (with Tony Wirjanto)     pdf   

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (2012)

Static and Dynamic Merger Effects: A Market Share Based Empirical Analysis (with Anindya Sen)     pdf

International Review of Law and Economics (2013)

Complements and Potential Competition    pdf

International Journal of Industrial Organization (2010)

Market Share Exclusion    pdf

Revise-and-Resubmit

Identification and Estimation of Social Interactions through Variation in Equilibrium Influence    pdf

Under Revision

On the Learnability of Rational Expectations Equilibria in Three Business Cycle Models

Lic.Soc.Sci Thesis (2000)

Adaptive Learning of Rational Expectations: A Neural Network Approach

English version of M.Soc.Sci Thesis (1998)

For General Audience

Economic Stagnation

U.S. scientists must compete internationally, just like auto and steel workers do  STAT News

Our universities need to ditch DEI and get back to merit and excellence  Financial Post

Delete DEI. Invest in AI.   Brief submitted to House of Commons

Resources, yes, but don’t give up on the knowledge economy just yet  Financial Post

MAGAnomics offered a counterpoint to economic stagnation  Financial Post

Reigniting Science

Risk-taking is now rare in science, but we can fix it  (with Jay Bhattacharya) UnHerd

Fund young people to get more innovative science  Interview for The Scientist

A Novelty Reformation to Reignite Science  (with Jay Bhattacharya)

The Atlantic on My Work on Reigniting Science 

The Economist on My Work and the Biden Administration's Plan to Reignite Science

Me on Reigniting Science in a Magazine of the Chinese Academy of Sciences  Interview

The Economist on My Work on Stagnation in Science

Me on Science and Twitter Interview for Martin Center for Academic Renewal

The Economist on My Work on Reigniting Science

Navigating the Innovation Doldrums The Hill Times

Encouraging Edge Science through NIH Funding (with Jay Bhattacharya) Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Ranking Journals by Novelty (with Jay Bhattacharya) VoxEU

Covid/Schools/Lockdowns/Testing/Contact Tracing

Inflation and Economists' Lack of Credibility  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  The Telegraph

Inflation is a Result of Economists' Self-Censorship  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Brownstone Institute & Epoch Times

Lockdown Harms and the Silence of Economists  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Collateral Global

Peter Robinson interviews Jay Bhattacharya (discussion on the Silence of Economists at 43:10) YouTube (1.5M views)

The Accidental Biosecurity State  Brownstone Institute

How to Unshackle Rapid COVID Testing  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Newsweek

Unmask Children to Keep Schools Open  Toronto Sun   pdf

More on the Futility of Contact Tracing  Inference

Humane Policies Rather Than Lockdowns and Shaming  The Kingston Whig-Standard

Reopen Schools to Save Lives  Toronto Sun   pdf

COVID Testing in Schools Foments Unfounded Fear Financial Post   pdf

On the Futility of Contact Tracing  (with Jay Bhattacharya) Inference: International Review of Science

The Global Cost of Our Lockdowns (with Jay Bhattacharya) The Spectator   pdf 

Focused COVID-19 Restrictions in Rich Countries Will Save Lives in Poor Countries (with Jay Bhattacharya) Financial Post    pdf 

Our Covid-19 Restrictions Threaten The Lives of Children in Poor Countries (in Finnish) Suomen Kuvalehti

Research Funding

Emergent Ventures 2020-2022  (with Jay Bhattacharya)

Business Finland 2020-2023 (with Jay Bhattacharya, Tero Kuusi)

Waterloo AI Institute 2019-2020 (with Joel Blit)

National Institute on Aging 2013-2019 (PI: Bruce A. Weinberg; link)

Amazon Web Services 2013-4 (cloud computing)