Mikko Packalen

    Associate Professor


    University of Waterloo

   Curriculum Vitae 

     Email: packalen@uwaterloo.ca


Econ 424/626 Machine Learning for Economists  pdf 

Econ 322 Econometrics I: Intro to the Credibility Revolution   pdf

Econ 101 Introduction to Microeconomics   pdf

Econ 256 Introduction to Health Economics  pdf

Econ 441 Public Economics   pdf

For General Audience

Reigniting Science

Risk-taking is now rare in science, but we can fix it  (with Jay Bhattacharya) UnHerd

Fund young people to get more innovative science  Interview for The Scientist

A Novelty Reformation to Reignite Science  (with Jay Bhattacharya)

The Atlantic on My Work on Reigniting Science 

The Economist on My Work and the Biden Administration's Plan to Reignite Science

Me on Reigniting Science in a Magazine of the Chinese Academy of Sciences  Interview

The Economist on My Work on Stagnation in Science

Me on Science and Twitter Interview for Martin Center for Academic Renewal

The Economist on My Work on Reigniting Science

Navigating the Innovation Doldrums The Hill Times

Encouraging Edge Science through NIH Funding (with Jay Bhattacharya) Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Ranking Journals by Novelty (with Jay Bhattacharya) VoxEU

Covid/Schools/Lockdowns/Testing/Contact Tracing

Inflation and Economists' Lack of Credibility  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  The Telegraph

Inflation is a Result of Economists' Self-Censorship  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Brownstone Institute & Epoch Times

Lockdown Harms and the Silence of Economists  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Collateral Global

Peter Robinson interviews Jay Bhattacharya (discussion on the Silence of Economists at 43:10) YouTube (1.5M views)

The Accidental Biosecurity State  Brownstone Institute

How to Unshackle Rapid COVID Testing  (with Jay Bhattacharya)  Newsweek

Unmask Children to Keep Schools Open  Toronto Sun   pdf

More on the Futility of Contact Tracing  Inference

Humane Policies Rather Than Lockdowns and Shaming  The Kingston Whig-Standard

Reopen Schools to Save Lives  Toronto Sun   pdf

COVID Testing in Schools Foments Unfounded Fear Financial Post   pdf

On the Futility of Contact Tracing  (with Jay Bhattacharya) Inference: International Review of Science

The Global Cost of Our Lockdowns (with Jay Bhattacharya) The Spectator   pdf 

Focused COVID-19 Restrictions in Rich Countries Will Save Lives in Poor Countries (with Jay Bhattacharya) Financial Post    pdf 

Our Covid-19 Restrictions Threaten The Lives of Children in Poor Countries (in Finnish) Suomen Kuvalehti

Research Papers

Stagnation and Scientific Incentives   (with Jay Bhattacharya)          pdf


Popularization: The Economist | National Review 

NIH Funding and the Pursuit of Edge Science  (with Jay Bhattacharya)       pdf

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020)

Popularization: The Economist | SIEPR 

Age and the Trying Out Of New Ideas (with Jay Bhattacharya)        pdf 

Journal of Human Capital (2019)

Popularizations: Nature | Nature Editorial | De Standaard | The Scientist | Fivethirtyeight | Diverse Issues in Higher Education

A Machine Learning Analysis of Geographic Localization of Knowledge Flows (with Joel Blit) 

Draft available upon request; Presentation pdf  

Edge Factors: Scientific Frontier Positions of Nations         pdf

Scientometrics (2019)

Popularization: Nature Index

Neophilia Ranking of Scientific Journals (with Jay Bhattacharya)        pdf

Scientometrics (2017) 

Popularization: VoxEU

Cities and Ideas (with Jay Bhattacharya)           pdf

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Urban Economics

Popularizations: NBER Digest | NPR | Washington Post/The Switch | Equitable Growth | CityLab | Pacific Standard | World Economic Forum

New Ideas in Invention (with Jay Bhattacharya)           pdf

Revise and Resubmit, Research Policy; Replaces "Words in Patents: Research Inputs and the Value of Innovativeness in Invention" (link to old version)

Popularizations: The Atlantic | Les Affaires 

Opportunities and Benefits as Determinants of the Direction of Scientific Research (with Jay Bhattacharya)       pdf

Journal of Health Economics (2011)    Replaced "Is Medicine An Ivory Tower?" (link to old version with also pharmaceutical industry analysis)

The Other Ex-Ante Moral Hazard in Health (with Jay Bhattacharya)      pdf

Journal of Health Economics (2012)    Earlier version with a less formal model and disease-specific analysis is here.

Popularizations: Marginal Revolution | Boston Globe/Ideas | The Economist/Free Exchange | Baker Institute | Cato Institute | Mercatus Center | Fraser Institute

Inference about Clustering and Parametric Assumptions in Covariance Matrix Estimation (with Tony Wirjanto)     pdf   

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (2012)

Static and Dynamic Merger Effects: A Market Share Based Empirical Analysis (with Anindya Sen)     pdf

International Review of Law and Economics (2013)

Complements and Potential Competition    pdf

International Journal of Industrial Organization (2010)

Market Share Exclusion    pdf


Identification and Estimation of Social Interactions through Variation in Equilibrium Influence    pdf

Under Revision

On the Learnability of Rational Expectations Equilibria in Three Business Cycle Models

Lic.Soc.Sci Thesis (2000)

Adaptive Learning of Rational Expectations: A Neural Network Approach

English version of M.Soc.Sci Thesis (1998)

Research Funding

Emergent Ventures 2020-2022  (with Jay Bhattacharya)

Business Finland 2020-2023 (with Jay Bhattacharya, Tero Kuusi)

Waterloo AI Institute 2019-2020 (with Joel Blit)

National Institute on Aging 2013-2019 (PI: Bruce A. Weinberg; link)

Amazon Web Services 2013-4 (cloud computing)