The Long-Term Impacts of Dietary Policy: Evidence from the National Loaf (with S. von Hinke and E. N. Sørensen)
The early life food environment is crucial in shaping individuals’ preferences, health and human capital accumulation. In this paper, we investigate the impact of specific changes in prenatal exposure to nutrition, caused by a moderate regulatory change, on offspring human capital accumulation and cognitive ability in later life. This positive nutrition shock originates from changes in the nutritional composition of bread, which accounted for around a third of daily calories during our observation window. More specifically, we exploit variation in the flour extraction rate, set by the wartime and post-war UK government, leading to the exclusive supply of a darker, more nutritious bread. We find that in utero exposure to higher extraction rates improves fluid intelligence in older age, with additional (but more suggestive) evidence of an increase in years of education. We also find that exposed individuals exhibit a higher preference for wholemeal foods in later life. Our results suggest that even moderate improvements in early life nutrition contribute to human capital accumulation and may shape preferences for foods and nutrients throughout the life course.
Pregnancy, food purchases and nutritional quality (with B. Augsburg, G. Conti, P. Spinola, S. von Hinke)
Pregnancy is a critical period for health investments, bolstered by extensive public health guidance and evidence that healthy prenatal environments foster child development with lifelong benefits. We provide new evidence on the impact of conception on household nutritional choices during pregnancy and infancy, using an event study and household scanner data. Households make considerable healthy adjustments in alcohol and fruit purchases. Yet, despite these, the nutritional quality of food choices, declines substantially during pregnancy. The magnitude of the decline amounts to 50% of the mean difference in nutritional quality between a normal weight and an obese individual. It is caused largely by increased purchases of ultra-processed, high-sugar foods currently in the focus of food regulation. The deterioration of nutritional quality varies little by socio-economic status, pregnancy risk factors and food price environments, resulting in a fairly universal in-utero exposure to worse food environments.
Long-run Health and Mortality Effects of Exposure to Universal Health Care in Infancy (with Tanya Wilson)
We investigate how exposure to universal healthcare in infancy influences early life health outcomes and the extent to which impacts persist into later life. The introduction of universal healthcare through the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom in July 1948 presented a fundamental re-organisation of the healthcare environment. Immediate large decreases in infant mortality ensued. We show an immediate decrease in infant mortality ensued, particularly in i) the neonatal period, ii) for amenable causes of death, and iii) among low-income individuals. We use administrative data on hospitalisations and death records to compare individuals born in the immediate cohorts around the NHS introduction in a regression discontinuity design. Our findings indicate that age-specific survival rates (incidence of cardiovascular disease) in later life are systematically higher (lower) among those whose post-natal care expanded through the NHS. These long run impacts of infancy exposure to universal healthcare coverage through the NHS are economically significant.
Exploiting geographical variation in the change in per-capita medical services induced by the introduction of universal healthcare reveals evidence of crowding out effects between pre-existing and incoming patients to the new system. Our analysis suggests that supply side constraints play a key role in the design of universal healthcare systems.
The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations (with S. Kiesl-Reiter, J. Shaw, J. Winter)
Subjective house price expectations drive individual housing choices and market dynamics. We study the formation of subjective expectations about local house prices using novel survey data from Britain, a country with high homeownership rates and widely varying local housing dynamics. We find that individuals extrapolate strongly from their – often incorrect – perceptions of local house prices, but not from realized price changes. In addition, expectations are predicted by easily observable measures of local economic conditions. The extent to which they rely on their perceptions of past price changes and local economic conditions depends on the price uncertainty in local housing markets (captured through CAPM beta, market momentum and long-run price volatility) and individuals’ financial sophistication. Beyond these effects on the mean, we also find that the second moment of individuals’ subjective return distribution is larger for those living in areas with greater uncertainty about house price dynamics.
Financial Resilience
Financial resilience is a household’s ability to absorb financial shocks and maintain stable consumption and well-being in the face of economic disruptions. Shocks such as job loss, income changes, wealth fluctuations, health shocks, and family breakdowns can have significant financial consequences. Households employ various coping mechanisms, including drawing on savings, adjusting consumption, or taking on debt. This review synthesizes the existing literature on financial resilience, focusing on how consumers respond to unexpected financial shocks, which groups are most vulnerable, and the implications for financial regulation. Special attention is given to the estimation of household responses, particularly in Britain, and the regulatory tools that can mitigate the adverse effects of financial shocks.
Local Social Projects and Neighbourhood Crime (with G. Aleksin and A. Chevalier)
There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of community-based intervention at reducing local crimes. Using quasi-random variations in the timing and location of projects funded by the UK National Lottery and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that communities receiving concurrent interventions totalling £30,000 or more experience reductions in anti-social behaviour of up to 8.1 percent over a 24-month period, with effects intensifying to 10.1 percent in urban areas. However, relying on the same strategy, we estimate that larger infrastructure projects, such as sports centres, may actually increase crime rates by providing target points for youth crime. Overall, our results have important implications for the role of community projects in crime prevention strategies.
Nutritional impacts of targeted food vouchers in early life (with B. Augsburg, G. Conti, C. Farquharson, A. McKendrick, S. von Hinke, L. Wang) - NIHR project 203438
Life cycle impacts of health interventions (with T. Wilson)
Breathing Easy? The Hidden Toll of Coal Power on Early Life Health (with A. Chevalier and C. Hockey)
Female occupational upskilling in England and Wales in early 20th century (with A. Chevalier, J. Costas-Fernandez, M. Mohnen, A. Seltzer)
Evaluating the impact of the placement regulations on the CONvenience store sector and co-creating solutions for a healthier system: ECON study (NIHR project 156535)