Fall 2019 MA206
Probability and Statistics for engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, etc.
This is an undergraduate course at US Military Academy, West Point, NY 10996.
Section I1 4, 10:25 - 11:40 am, Thayer 470.
Section G2 4, 7:30 - 8:45 am, Thayer 470.
Section H2 3, 8:55 - 10:10 am, Thayer 470.
Section I2 3: 10:25 - 11:40 am, Thayer 470.
Random name generator on RStudio (random names will be selected via this code to go to the board)
Course Survey [for Lesson 1: 15 questions in 15 minutes, open via Internet Explorer]
We are using Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, by Jay Devore.
Course guide: this includes the day-by-day break down of the course material.
Technology used in class: RStudio, Mathematica, and Excel spreadsheet (in the form of *.xlsx and *.csv).
Breakdown of the points (1000 points possible):
Data Analysis in R: 25 points
Block 1 Problem Set: 100 points
Instructor Points (Class participation and Worksheets/quizzes/textbook problems): 100 points
WPRs/Exams (2): 250 points
Statistical Analysis Project: 275 points
Breakdown of the Points:
Project Proposal (group assignment): 25 points
Project Study Design (group assignment): 50 points
In-Class Writing Workshop (individual assignment): 20 points
Group Presentation (group assignment): 60 points
Report (individual assignment): 120 points
TEE (Final exam, 3.5 hours): 250 points [9 problems, with a strong emphasis on Block 4]
Dec 17, 2019 (Tuesday): 7:30 - 11:00 am [Alternate TEE Room Assignment]
Thayer 445
Thayer 447
Dec 18, 2019 (Wednesday): 1:00 - 4:30 pm
Thayer 447 I1-4
Thayer 448 G2-4
Thayer 449 H2-3
Thayer 450 I2-3
Bonus: up to 10 points
On Instructor Points:
Note: WebAssign is optional for my class; work on these problems for your own benefit.
On WPRs, from [Course Guide, page 11]:
Written Partial Reviews (WPRs), administered during the last lesson of Blocks 2 and 3 of the course, will evaluate your mastery of the material studied in those lessons. WPRs are 75 minutes in length and occur during your normally scheduled class period. The assessment will be written and you are permitted the following resources:
your personal copy of the Devore textbook,
your computer with access to a blank Excel worksheet, a blank Mathematica notebook, and a blank RStudio script,
handwritten 8.5" x 11" sheets of notes (front and back); 2 for WPR 1, 3 for WPR 2, and 4 for the TEE,
the MA206 Reference Sheet,
any calculator.
Practice WPR2 [Iraq SIGACTS.csv]
Practice WPR2 [trafficstops.csv]
In preparation for your WPR2, please go ahead and type and run the following line in RStudio: install.packages("Sleuth3")
On the Statistical Analysis Project, from [Course Guide, pages 10-11]:
The Block IV statistical analysis project is a favorite for cadets in MA206 because it allows you to use the skills you have learned to investigate a problem that you care about. You will be using multiple regression to either explore a relationship between a number of variables or to determine a model to predict a variable of interest. This is a group project with the exception of events related to the technical report.
Project Presentation
As a group, you will give a 10-12 minute presentation on your research problem, the tool you used (multiple regression model), and what the results mean for your research question. Each member of the team must be a part of the briefing.
Signature Writing Event
MA206 has the honor of stewarding the Signature Writing Event (SWE) for the core math program. This course is uniquely suited for this because of the importance of effective communication throughout the field of statistics. Most of the time, statisticians create models and analyze data for a client of some kind. Because of this, they must be able to communicate the impact of their findings in a way that is interpretable to professionals outside of the field of statistics.
Your technical report will serve as the SWE for this course and is an individual assignment. While you will be working together to development your model, the written explanation and analysis in the technical report should be your own work. You will submit your presentation tools and technical report.
Example 4 [NEW]
Example 5 [NEW]
MA206 Project Outline (includes sample templates)
Writing Workshop Form (for in-class peer review of your technical report)
Briefing Rubric (how your verbal and visual presentation will be graded)
Technical Report Rubric (how your written report will be graded)
WPWP (for cadets enrolled in WPWP-linked courses)
On the TEE, from [Course Guide, page 12]:
A final course average of less than 65% or a score of less than 50% on the TEE (regardless of the final course average) may indicate insufficient knowledge or ability and can result in course failure.
On the Bonus: get an average of 70% as your WebAssign assignment grade for the semester to be awarded these points (yes, this is one of those "all or nothing" opportunities!).
WebAssign Class Keys:
Section I1 4: usma 5001 5778
Section G2 4: usma 1486 4136
Section H2 3: usma 6485 9756
Section I2 3: usma 2259 2334
Section Marchers: you will be responsible to take daily attendance. This year, everything will be done virtually. Dr. Im will email you the link on 8/18/2019, or contact Dr. Im for the link after this date.
Section I1 4: CDT Josh Siemiaczko, CDT Austin Arnett (Assistant Section Marcher)
Section G2 4: CDT Andrew Zeidler, CDT Maxwell Brault (Assistant Section Marcher)
Section H2 3: CDT Valentina Vincent, CDT Madalyn Allen (Assistant Section Marcher)
Section I2 3: CDT Luke Whitman, CDT Bryanne Barrett (Assistant Section Marcher)
Lesson 1: slides
Lesson 2: intro to the course project (RStudio file)
Lesson 3: worksheet
Lesson 4: worksheet
Lesson 5: WebAssign 1d, worksheet, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 6: worksheet
Lesson 7: worksheet, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 8: worksheet
Lesson 9: worksheet, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 10: worksheet
Lesson 11: worksheet, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 13: WPR1 [Blocks 1 and 2]
Lesson 14: worksheet
Lesson 15: Cadet_Sleep.R, slides, worksheet [Lesson 16 will be covered today]
Lesson 16: slides, t-dist.nb, normal vs t, worksheet, worksheet (review), worksheet [Lessons 17 and 19 will be covered today]
Lesson 17: quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3 [Lesson 19 will be covered today; the quiz will cover up to Lesson 17]
Lesson 18: slides, worksheet, 2-sample and paired t-tests.R [Lesson 20 will be covered today]
Lesson 19: review, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 20: slides, ASA and p-values, Statistics in the Courtroom, PSL [Hypothesis Testing], review
Lesson 21: WPR2 [Block 3]
Lesson 22: worksheet, firearms deaths.xlsx
Lesson 23: worksheet 1, worksheet 2, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 24: slides, worksheet, model validation.R, qqnorm()
Lesson 25: worksheet, BankData.csv, additional worksheet, quiz V1, quiz V2, quiz V3
Lesson 26: Course Project IPR
Show me your csv file. Then verbally explain all steps, leading me to your final multiple regression model during class for a bonus of +5 points.
If you don't have your data set by today, then your group should change your research topic (and pull a data set from the web).
You may also use the class time to work on your project.
Lesson 27: In-Class Writing Workshop
Bring 4 paper copies of your individually written report; it is allowed to be in a draft form.
1 copy for Dr. Im.
3 copies for in-class peer-editing.
If you are going to be absent, you need to email your draft to the 3 cadets who are assigned to comment on your paper, and cc that email to me. This must be done before the start of Lesson 27.
Lesson 28: Course Summary
NOTE THE CHANGES (due to weather):
Tuesday 3 Dec 2019: Day 1
Wednesday 4 Dec 2019: Day 2
Review: bring questions.
Dr. Im's suggestion: I recommend that you redo the quizzes, past WPRs, and worksheets. Then review WebAssign problems if you have time.
Lesson 29: Project Presentations
Slides due NLT 0700 today. Save your slides as Lastname_Lastname.pptx. Regardless of when you are presenting, email your slides to Dr. Im; follow all instructions in the rubric to maximize towards getting a full credit. [Briefing Rubric]
Upload tech report to Blackboard. Upload a copy of your individually written tech report to Blackboard if you are enrolled in WPWP. I will evaluate your paper and report to WPWP.
Tech reports due at the beginning of today's class. Bring a paper copy of individually written report for Dr. Im; follow all instructions in the rubric to maximize towards getting a full credit. [Technical Report Rubric]
Oral presentations begin today.
Lesson 30: Project Presentations
Resume oral presentations.
Course End Feedback.
Dec 17, 18: TEE
Cumulative.
Note that collaboration is strongly encouraged, but please document your peers!