I am an Assistant Director in the International Finance Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, DC with 20 years of international experience in policy organizations and academia. My work focuses on advancing and coordinating macroeconomic modeling efforts within the division to support policy analysis and the development of risk scenarios for monetary policymaking. More broadly, I apply macroeconomic models to key policy questions, including monetary policy strategies, exchange rate dynamics, the transmission of shocks to the energy sector, and the economic effects of natural disasters.
Before rejoining the Federal Reserve in April 2016, I spent five years in Southeast Asia where I worked in the Economic Research and Development Department of the Asian Development Bank in Manila (April 2011 – November 2012) and later as an Associate Professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore (January 2013 – March 2016). My career at the Federal Reserve Board originally began in 2005.
I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University and completed my undergraduate studies at the University of Konstanz in Germany. Since 2017, I have also served as a co-organizer of the CEBRA Workshop for Commodities and Macroeconomics.
The views expressed on this site are solely my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any person associated with the Federal Reserve System.
Working Papers
Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Bounded Rationality (with Junzhu Zhao). Submitted.
The Effects of Hurricanes on Local Employment Dynamics (with William Yang). Submitted.
Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance (with Pablo Cuba-Borda, Nils Goernemann, and Ignacio Presno).
Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar (with Pablo Cuba Borda, Nils Goernemann, Ignacio Presno, Andrea Prestipino, Albert Queralto, and Andrea Raffo). Click here for the original working paper. Submitted.
Published, Forthcoming, and Accepted Papers
International Monetary Policy Cooperation (with Giancarlo Corsetti). Click here for the online appendix. Prepared for Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.
On the GDP Effects of Severe Physical Hazards (with Mikaël Scaramucci). European Economic Review, vol 175 (2025), 105019.
The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri). Review of Economic Studies, vol. 92 (2025), pp. 873-908. Click here for the technical appendix. Click here for the original working paper. Additional material: Slides.
Learning and Misperception: Implications for Monetary Policy Strategies (with James Hebden and Fabian Winkler), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 139 (2022). Click here for working paper. Additional material: Slides, Brookings blog.
Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri), Quantitative Economics, vol. 13 (2022), pp. 681-721.
Covid Economics version, May 2020, Covid Economics, issue 19, May 18, 2020, pp. 1-52.
Original versions: FEDS 2020-31 and CEPR 14629.
Economic and Epidemiological Effects of Mandated and Spontaneous Social Distancing (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri), Covid Economics, issue 71, March 2021, pp. 1-18. This short paper was merged with the original version of ``Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic'' in the February 2021 version of that paper.
Additional material: VOXEU contribution, Slides, VMACS presentation (YouTube), MMCN webinar (YouTube), CNN or here, CNBC interview/article, Phys.Org article, Reaction article, King's College London News Centre, U of Cambridge research blog, INET announcement, Corriere della Sera (in Italian), and many more in French, Italian, and Chinese.
Employment, Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Junzhu Zhao), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 112 (2020), pp. 77-96. Click here for technical appendix and here for working paper.
On Targeting Frameworks and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Junzhu Zhao), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 51 (2019), pp. 2077-2113. Click here for the technical appendix and here for working paper.
Macroeconomic Policy Games (with Luca Guerrieri and Joe LaBriola), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 101 (2019), pp. 64-81. Click here for the online appendix and here for the Matlab toolbox.
Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies (with Gunes Kamber and Christoph Thoenissen), Journal of International Economics, vol 115 (2018), pp. 170-184. Click here for working paper
The Effects of Foreign Shocks when U.S. Interest Rates are Zero (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Canadian Journal of Economics, vol 50 (2017), pp. 660-684. Click here for working paper.
Equilibrium Stability in Open Economy Models Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 35 (2013), pp. 1-13. Click here for working paper.
Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates (with Luca Guerrieri and Christopher Gust), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 32 (2013), pp. 941-967. Click here for working paper. FT Alphaville.
Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations (with Luca Guerrieri and Lutz Kilian), IMF Economic Review, vol 60 (2012), pp. 470-504. Click here for working paper.
Imperfect Credibility and the Zero Lower Bound (with James Hebden and Ricardo Nunes), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 59 (2012), pp. 135-149. Click here for technical appendix. Click here for working paper.
Closing Large Open Economy Models Journal of International Economics, vol. 84 (2011), pp. 160-177. Click here for working paper and here for technical appendix.
Oil Shocks and External Adjustment (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Journal of International Economics, vol. 83 (2011), pp. 168-184. Click here for working paper.
Trade Elasticities of Substitution and Equilibrium Dynamics Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 145 (2010), pp. 1033-1059. Click here for working paper.
Of Nutters and Doves (with Roc Armenter), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 9 (2009), Issue 1 (Contributions), article 35. Click here for working paper.
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55 (2008), pp. S18-S33.
Click here for working paper and codes. FT Alphaville.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole Speech 2021.
Can the U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) in an Expectation Trap? (with Roc Armenter), Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 12 (2008), pp. 664-693. Click here for working paper.
International Asset Markets And Real Exchange Rate Volatility Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11 (2008), pp. 688-705. Click here for working paper.
Political Yardstick Competition, Economic Integration, and Constitutional Choice in a Federation (with Heinrich Ursprung), Public Choice, vol. 124 (2005), pp. 329-352.
Comments and Policy Papers
Acute Physical Impacts from Climate Change and Monetary Policy (with co-authors from numerous central banks), NGFS, August 2024.
The Transmission of Global Risk (with Pablo Cuba-Borda and Albert Queralto), FEDS Note, 27 June 2023.
Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk (with Pablo Cuba-Borda, Jay Farris, and Nils Goernemann), FEDS Note, 1 February 2021.
Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic (with Giancarlo and Luca Guerrieri), VOXEU contribution, 12 June 2020.
Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help? (with Jonas, Arias, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo). FEDs Working Paper 2020-068.
The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve's review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.
See also Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole speech 2020. Bundesbankpraesident Jens Weidmann, speech in 2020.
Comments on "A Comparison of Liquidity Management Tools in Seven Asian Economies" (by Kenneth Kuttner and James Yetman) at the Bank Indonesia and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) co-hosted research conference on "Expanding the Boundaries of Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific" September 2015.
Older Projects
Does The Time Inconsistency Problem Make Flexible Exchange Rates Look Worse Than You Think? (with Roc Armenter).
Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: a Tale of Ups and Downs (with Luca Guerrieri). Click here for technical appendix.