Martin Bodenstein
I am an assistant director in the International Finance Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington DC, USA. Currently, my responsibilities include advancing and coordinating macroeconomic modeling efforts with special emphasis on the dynamics of the energy sector and its transformation. More generally, my work and interests lie in applying macroeconomic models to policy questions such as monetary policy strategies, exchange rate dynamics, the transmission of shocks to the energy sector, and, more recently, the macroeconomic effects from the physical and transition risks of climate change.
Prior to (re-) joining the Federal Reserve in April 2016, I spent five years in Southeast Asia where I worked in the Economic Research and Development Department of the Asian Development Bank in Manila, Philippines (April 2011 to November 2012), and as an Associate Professor in Economics at the National University of Singapore (NUS) from January 2013 to March 2016. I originally joined the Federal Reserve Board in 2005. Since 2005, I hold a PhD in Economics from Northwestern University in Evanston, USA. I did my undergraduate studies at the University of Konstanz in Germany.
I have been a co-organizer of the CEBRA Workshop for Commodities and Macroeconomics since its inception in 2017.
The views expressed on this site are solely my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any person associated with the Federal Reserve System.
Working Papers
Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance (with Pablo Cuba-Borda, Nils Goernemann, and Ignacio Presno).
On the GDP Effects of Severe Physical Hazards (with Mikaël Scaramucci).
Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar (with Pablo Cuba Borda, Nils Goernemann, Ignacio Presno, Andrea Prestipino, Albert Queralto, and Andrea Raffo).
Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: a Tale of Ups and Downs (with Luca Guerrieri). Click here for technical appendix. Revisions requested.
Published, Forthcoming, and Accepted Papers
The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri). Review of Economic Studies. Click here for working paper. Additional material: Slides.
Learning and Misperception: Implications for Monetary Policy Strategies (with James Hebden and Fabian Winkler), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 139 (2022). Click here for working paper. Additional material: Slides, Brookings blog.
Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri), Quantitative Economics, vol. 13 (2022), pp. 681-721.
Covid Economics version, May 2020, Covid Economics, issue 19, May 18, 2020, pp. 1-52.
Original versions: FEDS 2020-31 and CEPR 14629.
Economic and Epidemiological Effects of Mandated and Spontaneous Social Distancing (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri), Covid Economics, issue 71, March 2021, pp. 1-18. This short paper was merged with the original version of ``Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic'' in the February 2021 version of that paper.
Additional material: VOXEU contribution, Slides, VMACS presentation (YouTube), MMCN webinar (YouTube), CNN or here, CNBC interview/article, Phys.Org article, Reaction article, King's College London News Centre, U of Cambridge research blog, INET announcement, Corriere della Sera (in Italian), and many more in French, Italian, and Chinese.
Employment, Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Junzhu Zhao), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 112 (2020), pp. 77-96. Click here for technical appendix and here for working paper.
On Targeting Frameworks and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Junzhu Zhao), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 51 (2019), pp. 2077-2113. Click here for the technical appendix and here for working paper.
Macroeconomic Policy Games (with Luca Guerrieri and Joe LaBriola), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 101 (2019), pp. 64-81. Click here for the online appendix and here for the Matlab toolbox.
Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies (with Gunes Kamber and Christoph Thoenissen), Journal of International Economics, vol 115 (2018), pp. 170-184. Click here for working paper
The Effects of Foreign Shocks when U.S. Interest Rates are Zero (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Canadian Journal of Economics, vol 50 (2017), pp. 660-684. Click here for working paper.
Equilibrium Stability in Open Economy Models Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 35 (2013), pp. 1-13. Click here for working paper.
Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates (with Luca Guerrieri and Christopher Gust), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 32 (2013), pp. 941-967. Click here for working paper. FT Alphaville.
Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations (with Luca Guerrieri and Lutz Kilian), IMF Economic Review, vol 60 (2012), pp. 470-504. Click here for working paper.
Imperfect Credibility and the Zero Lower Bound (with James Hebden and Ricardo Nunes), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 59 (2012), pp. 135-149. Click here for technical appendix. Click here for working paper.
Closing Large Open Economy Models Journal of International Economics, vol. 84 (2011), pp. 160-177. Click here for working paper and here for technical appendix.
Oil Shocks and External Adjustment (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Journal of International Economics, vol. 83 (2011), pp. 168-184. Click here for working paper.
Trade Elasticities of Substitution and Equilibrium Dynamics Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 145 (2010), pp. 1033-1059. Click here for working paper.
Of Nutters and Doves (with Roc Armenter), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 9 (2009), Issue 1 (Contributions), article 35. Click here for working paper.
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation (with Christopher Erceg and Luca Guerrieri), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55 (2008), pp. S18-S33.
Click here for working paper and codes. FT Alphaville.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole Speech 2021.
Can the U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) in an Expectation Trap? (with Roc Armenter), Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 12 (2008), pp. 664-693. Click here for working paper.
International Asset Markets And Real Exchange Rate Volatility Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11 (2008), pp. 688-705. Click here for working paper.
Political Yardstick Competition, Economic Integration, and Constitutional Choice in a Federation (with Heinrich Ursprung), Public Choice, vol. 124 (2005), pp. 329-352.
Comments and Policy Papers
The Transmission of Global Risk (with Pablo Cuba-Borda and Albert Queralto), FEDS Note, 27 June 2023.
Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk (with Pablo Cuba-Borda, Jay Farris, and Nils Goernemann), FEDS Note, 1 February 2021.
Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic (with Giancarlo and Luca Guerrieri), VOXEU contribution, 12 June 2020.
Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help? (with Jonas, Arias, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo). FEDs Working Paper 2020-068.
The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve's review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.
See also Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole speech 2020. Bundesbankpraesident Jens Weidmann, speech in 2020.
Comments on "A Comparison of Liquidity Management Tools in Seven Asian Economies" (by Kenneth Kuttner and James Yetman) at the Bank Indonesia and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) co-hosted research conference on "Expanding the Boundaries of Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific" September 2015.
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