Research
Publications
Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini’s Battle for Grain; The Economic Journal, Volume 131, Issue 634, February 2021, Pages 566–597.
Abstract:
This paper explores the effect of agricultural policies on industrialization and economic development over the long run. I analyze the differential effect of the Battle for Grain, implemented by the Italian Fascist regime to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production, on the development path across areas of Italy. Employing time variation, along with cross-sectional variation in the suitability of land for implementing the advanced wheat production technologies, I find that the policy had unintended positive effects on industrialization and economic prosperity which have persisted until the present day. Furthermore, I find that the positive effect of the Battle for Grain on human capital accumulation was instrumental in this process, suggesting that the complementarity between human capital and agricultural technology may be a critical mechanism through which agricultural productivity may enhance the development of non-agricultural sectors.
Pandemics and Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy (joint with Tullio Jappelli) European Review of Economic History, Volume 26, Issue 1, February 2022, Pages 78–106,
[accepted draft] [CEPR DP14849]
Coverage: COVID Economics ISSUE 10; VoxEU; EEA COVID-19; Economic History Society on pandemics
Abstract:
We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused about 600,000 deaths in Italy, a death rate of about 1.2%. We find evidence of a strong and significant adverse effect of the pandemic on regional growth. In particular, going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of about 6.5%, which dissipated within three years. In line with this finding, we also estimate a small and transitory negative effect of the influenza on industrialization. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on local economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions.
Fascistville: Mussolini’s New Towns and the Persistence of Neo-Fascism, Journal of Economic Growth, Volume 26, Issue 4, pages 527–567, 2022. (Open Access)
Coverage: Domani; The Long Run; JEH meeting abstracts
Abstract:
This paper explores the link between infrastructures built by autocratic regimes and political values in the wake of the transition to democracy and in the long run. In Fascist Italy (1922-43), Mussolini founded 147 “New Towns” (Città di Fondazione). Exploring municipality-level data before and after their construction, I document (i) that the New Towns enhanced local electoral support for the Fascist Party and (ii) that the effect persisted through democratization, enhancing local support for Italy’s neo-fascist party, which endured until recent times. Placebo estimates of New Towns planned but not built and spatial regression discontinuity design both support a causal interpretation of this pattern. Survey respondents near the New Towns currently exhibit preferences for a stronger leader in politics, for nationalism, and for the fascists as such. The effect is greater for individuals who lived under the Fascist Regime and is transmitted across generations inside the family. The findings suggest that authoritarian leaders may exploit public investment programs to induce a favorable view of their ideology, which persists across institutional transitions and over the long term.
Human Capital Composition and Long-Run Economic Growth Economic Modelling, vol. 137, 2024, pp. 106760. (replication files) (Open Access)
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of human capital composition on technological progress and its role in influencing the transition from stagnation to growth and the persistent income disparities across the globe. It posits that the trade-off between higher and lower education within an economy results in a trade-off between innovation and technology adoption. While highly educated individuals drive technological innovation, a workforce without adequate education can hinder technology adoption, thereby delaying the transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, technology adoption complements technological progress especially in the modern era, when innovations are more challenging to adopt, thereby enhancing economic growth. This study provides empirical evidence to support the theoretical predictions. Overall, the findings form the basis for future studies on the critical role of human capital composition in economic development and offer novel insights for shaping education reforms at different stages of development.
Working Papers
Fascist Ideology and Migrant Labor Exploitation (joint with Gemma Dipoppa and Shanker Satyanath) BSE Working Paper 1395| June 2023
McGillivray Best Paper Award for the best paper in Political Economy, APSA 2023
Abstract:
Official reports from the International Labor Organization have been increasingly highlighting the pervasive presence of forced labor, especially involving migrants, in the developed world. There is, however, little work explaining the demand-side determinants of modern forced labor. We address this gap by focusing on variations in modern forced labor within a single developed country (Italy). Regression discontinuity and triple differences designs show that modern forced labor is strongly associated with prior exposure to the ideology of the Italian Fascist regime (1922-43) which emphasized the subjugation of non-white ethnic groups (the primary subjects of forced labor).
Selected Research Papers in Progress
The Alpha Political Male (joint with Marta Reynal-Querol)
Populism and Complexity (joint with Dana Foarta and Maria Petrova)
Reception Policies and Wealth (joint with Lavinia Piemontese and Francesco F. Russo)
The Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Mussolini's Land Reclamation
Agriculture, Family Structure, and Economic Development: Evidence from Italy (joint with Matteo Sestito)
Fasci, Credit, and Crisis (joint with Mikhail Mamonov, Raoul Minetti, Pierluigi Murro)
The Effect of Regularization on Migrant Labor Exploitation (joint with Francesco Amodio, Elia Benveniste, Marc Riudavets-Barcons)