Regional Economic Development in Europe: The Role of Total Factor Productivity, forthcoming: Regional Studies. (with S. Beugelsdijk and P. Milionis)

Value Diversity and Regional Economic Development, forthcoming: Scandinavian Journal of Economics. (with S. Beugelsdijk and P. Milionis) (featured in LSE Business Review)

Measuring Value Diversity within Countries, in: Social Economics: Current and Emerging Avenues (eds. Joan Costa-Font and Mario Macis), pp. 129-172, MIT Press, 2017. (with S. Beugelsdijk)

Diversity and Trust: The Role of Shared Values Journal of Comparative Economics, 44 (3), pp. 522-540, 2016. (with S. Beugelsdijk)

Cultural Change, Risk-Taking Behavior and Implications for Economic Development, Journal of Development Economics, 110, pp. 158-169, 2014.

Quantifying the Evolution of World Trade, 1870-1949, Journal of International Economics, 92 (1), pp. 185-197, 2014. (with P. Milionis)

Cultural Constraints on Innovation-Based GrowthEconomic Inquiry, 52 (2), pp. 796-810, 2014. (with P. Milionis). 

Cultural Dimensions, Collective Values and their Importance for InstitutionsJournal of Comparative Economics, 41 (2), pp. 447-467, 2013.

Completed Working Papers

The transition from primitive to advanced stages of economic development is to a large extent driven by technological progress. Yet, what are the forces that bring about improvements in technology along this long transition? To address this question, we propose a long-run theory of technological progress based on small-scale innovations by individual agents and study its implications in the context of a unified growth model. Our results highlight the important role of innovation-promoting institutions, such as property rights, which influence both the rate of technological progress as well as the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth. We also document the possibility of a growth trap for economies in which such institutions are weak or absent. Finally, we discuss how our innovation-based theory compares to one based on learning-by- doing and how it can better account for the diverging historical development paths of different regions of Europe.

Trade Growth and Trade Theory Since 1870 (with P. Milionis and R. Zymek)

To what extent can trade theory account for the long-run evolution of world trade? Our paper offers the first systematic attempt to address this question. To this end, we consolidate existing sources on bilateral trade flows, GDP, tariffs and transportation costs for the world’s major economies during the period 1870-2005, and use the data to calibrate a canonical model of international trade flows. We find that this model fails to predict the magnitude and nature of the swings in the global trade share over the last 135 years. Despite this, it captures changes in the relative size of bilateral and regional trading patterns with a surprising degree of accuracy. We quantitatively explore two generalizations of our baseline model and, in the light of our results, discuss realistic generalizations which could reconcile trade theory with the long-run data.

Work in Progress

The Short- and Long-Run Effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy (with S. Beugelsdijk and P. Milionis)

The International Epidemiological Transition and the Education Gender Gap (with P. Milionis)

Complementary Human Capital Investment and Long-Run Development (with P. Milionis)

The Gravity Model in a Long-Run Context (with P. Milionis and R. Zymek)