Research & Policy work 

Publications

• DSGE Nash: a toolkit to solve Nash Games in Macro Models (joint with Massimo Ferrari Minesso),  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 178, 2025, 105143, CODE HERE

Working paper version(s): ECB WP No 2678, Banque de France WP No. 884

       Media coverage: SUERF policy brief

• Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies  on the euro area economies, European Economic Review, 2024, 103617 

Working paper version: Banque de France WP No. 829

Media coverage: SUERF policy brief

• Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter? (with Florens Odendahl,  Adrian Penalver, Barbara Rossi, Giulia Sestieri), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 103617

Working paper version: Banque de France WP No. 912, 

• The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants (joint with Swarnali Ahmed Hannan), Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 145, July 2024, 103095

Working paper version: IMF Working Paper No. 17/41

Media coverage: Central Banking

• The International impact of a fragile EMU (joint with Demosthenes Ioannou and Livio Stracca), European Economic Review, Volume 161, January 2024

Working paper version(s): ECB WP No 2459, Banque de France WP No. 795

Media coverage: VoxEU

• No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change (joint with Massimo Ferrari Minesso), Journal of International Economics, Volume 145, November 2023 [Replication code]

Working paper version(s): ECB WP No.  2568, Banque de France WP No. 815

Media coverage: SUERF policy brief

• LSIs' exposure to climate-related risks: an approach to assess physical risks, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 1-54, March 2023

Working paper version(s): ECB WP No. 2517

• Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets (joint with Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Frederik Kurcz),  Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2022; 1– 22.  

Working paper version(s): ECB WP No 2490,  Banque de France WP No. 802

Media coverage: French Finance Ministry

Working papers

• Commitment vs Credibility: Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty Concerns (with Fulvia Marotta and Jasper de Winter), DNB WP 840

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel media-based index of climate policy uncertainty – the CPU-Concern index – that captures both the prevalence of climate policy uncertainty and the intensity of public concern. Using data from the Netherlands, a setting charac- terized by ambitious climate targets and persistent credibility challenges, we document how policy announcements shape perceived uncertainty through signaling effects. The CPU-Concern index rises during contested policy debates and declines following for- mal ratification, with heterogeneous responses depending on the policy’s ambition and credibility. We show that climate policy uncertainty primarily transmits through shifts in business and consumer sentiment, affecting stock market prices, investments and real activity. Furthermore, negative CPU shocks generate more persistent economic drag than positive ones, while the opposite holds true for nominal variables, thus highlighting asymmetries in how uncertainty shapes behavior and potential policy reactions. Our findings underscore the importance of credible and transparent policy communication in reducing uncertainty and supporting the low-carbon transition. 

• Managing the transition to central bank digital currency (with Katrin Assenmacher, Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Arnaud Mehl), ECB WP No 2907, DNB WP 803

Abstract: We develop a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to study the transition from a steady-state without CBDC to one in which the home country issues a CBDC. The CBDC provides households with a liquid, convenient and storage-costfree means of payments which reduces the market power of banks on deposits. In the steady-state CBDC unambiguously improves welfare without disintermediating the banking sector. But macroeconomic volatility in the transition period to the new steady-state increases for plausible values of the latter. Demand for CBDC and money overshoot, thereby crowding out bank deposits and leading to initial declines in investment, consumption and output. We use non-linear solution methods with occasionally binding constraints to explore how alternative policies reduce volatility in the transition, contrasting the effects of restrictions on non-residents, binding caps, tiered remuneration and central bank asset purchases. Binding caps reduce disintermediation and output losses in the transition most effectively, with an optimal level of around 40% of steady-state CBDC demand. 

Media coverage: VoxEU

• The CO2 content of ECB's TLTROIII and its greening (with Chiara Colesanti Senni & Jens van 't Klooster), Grantham Research Institute, LSE, WP 31 May 2023 , DNB Working Paper n. 792, R&R at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 

Abstract:  This paper investigates the climate impact of central bank refinancing operations, with a focus the ECB’s TLTRO III program. Notably, we construct a novel database that combines i) confidential data on loans granted by EU banks to non-financial corporations; ii) confidential data on TLTRO III participation and iii) data on sectoral emissions. We find that the emissions content of bank loans granted over the TLTRO III reference period amount to 8% of overall Euro Area 2019 emissions and that more than 80% of total cumulated loans issued in the reference period was directed towards polluting companies. We then investigate the effectiveness of a green credit easing  scheme via a general equilibrium model. Our findings are twofold: first, the central bank policy can increase the costs for lending to polluting companies, thus re-directing loans to less-polluting firms; second, the financial stability implications of such a policy should be carefully considered. Finally, we address legal and operational challenges to such a policy by outlining three alternative ways of implementing a “green” TLTRO programme.

Media coverage: SUERF policy brief

Research in progress

• The effect of trade policy uncertainty on the euro area economy (with Kostas Mavromatis)

• Impact of green TLTROs: a DSGE approach (with Chiara Colesanti Senni)

Policy work

• BdF Blog (2023), "Wage indexation to prices and inflation expectation anchoring" (with C. Grosse Steffen and G. Smagghue), Post n. 335, Banque de France, Paris, https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/wage-indexation-prices-and-inflation-expectation-anchoring

• BdF Blog (2021), "Monetary policy, fragmentation risks and the euro" (with K. Istrefi and U. Szczerbowicz), Post n. 237, Banque de France, Paris, https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/monetary-policy-fragmentation-risks-and-euro 

• BdF Blog (2021), "Why can sovereign and corporate borrowers in some countries borrow at negative rates?" (with S. Herbert and A. Penalver), Post n. 212, Banque de France, Paris, https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/why-can-sovereign-and-corporate-borrowers-some-countries 

• ECB Occasional Paper (2019), “Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries”, September, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main,  Germany https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op232~4b89088255.en.pdf 

• ECB (2019), “The International Role of the Euro”, June, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/ire/html/ecb.ire201906~f0da2b823e.en.html 

• IMF Board Paper (2016), “Capital Flows - Review of Experience with the Institutional View”, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., USA https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2017/01/13/PP5081-Capital-Flows-Review-of-Experience-with-the-Institutional-View