Research

Appled econometrics on Panel Data; Uncertainty; Corporate Capital Structure; R&D and Innovation; Investment; Multilevel Panel data analysis; Heterogeneity and Clustering; Dynamic Modelling and Instrumental Variables.

Links to Google Scholar, RePEc, Research Gate, Scopus, SSRN, WOS

Working Papers

Economic Uncertainty Measures, Experts and ChatGPT (2024) with S. Makarova, WP DSE, Univ. of Bologna. Presented at the 5th Biennial Conference Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment, 21-22 September 2023, University of Padua.

GMM-lev estimation and individual heterogeneity: Monte Carlo evidence and empirical applications (2023) with J. Ditzen. Presented at the 28th IPDC - International Panel Data Conference, Amsterdam School fo Economics,  3-4 July 2023; the EAYE (European Association of Young Economists) Annual Meeting, 23-25 May 2024 

Heterogeneity of covenant violations and corporate financial behavior (2024) with L. Bottazzi, WP DSE Univ. of Bologna. Presented at the 8th Annual Conference of SEM- Society for Economic Measurement, University of Milano Bicocca, June 29-July 1, 2023; the 17th CFE - International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, HTW Berlin, University of Applied Sciences, 16-18 December 2023; the 29th IPDC - International Panel Data Conference, University of Orléans, 4-5 July 2024

xtsum3: Three-Ways Decomposition of Variability in Longitudinal, Time-series-Cross-sections, and Multilevel Data (2023), WP DSE, Univ. of Bologna. Email me to get access to my GitHub page. The STATA procedure decomposes variability (1) between units/clusters (cross-section/level2 variability); (2) over time as common correlated effects (CCE); (3) residual within units/clusters (individual-specific time-series/level1 variability). Joint tests of the statistical significance of the three components are provided, together with the unit root test (Elliott et al., 1996) and common factor graphs. The re, mle, reml options perform the analysis assuming that the effects are random, as in the case of multilevel panels.

R&D for Product and Process Innovation, Uncertainty and Market Structure (2023) with L. Lambertini, WP DSE, Univ. of Bologna,. Preliminary version presented at SEM - Society for Ecnomic Measurement, 2017 Conference, the Samberg Center at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26-28, 2017.

Do Good Institutions Defer FDI to Natural Resource-Rich Developing Countries? A Multilevel Dynamic Analysis (2023) with H. Keen, WP DSE, Univ. of Bologna. Presented at SIDE First Italian Workshop of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (IWEEE): panel data Models and Applications, Univ. of Milano-Bicocca, January 25-26, 2018; IPDC 2017 Annual Conference, Univ. of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, July 7-8, 2017.

Publications

"Exploring the Innovative Effort: Duration Models and Heterogeneity" (2024) with L. Lambertini & G. Parigi, Eurasian Business Review, forthcoming. Preliminary version presented at the 10th ICEEE - Italian Congress of Econometrics & Empirical Economics, University of Cagliari, 26-28 May 2023

"Measuring Economic Uncertainty for Poland" (2022) with S. Bartha, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (1178) 

“EURQ: A New Web Search-based Uncertainty Index” (2021) with R. Golinelli, M. Frigeri & M. Squadrani, Economica, 88(352), 969-1015. We created EURQ, the economic uncertainty related queries, a new index of economic and political uncertainty based on the searches on the Web. The index, available for the US, Italy and Poland, is at monthly frequency, regularly updated. Discover the EURQ index, available on the EPU index website edited by Steven Davis (Chicago University), Nick Bloom (Stanford University) and Scott Baker (Northwestern University)!

“A Multilevel Index of Heterogeneous Short-term and Long-term Debt Dynamics” (2020) with R. Golinelli & L. Bottazzi,  Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, October

“Capital Structure across Italian Regions: The Role of Financial and Economic Differences” (2019) with F. di Pietro, M.-J. Palacín-Sánchez & R. Samaniego-Medina, Sustainability, 11(16), 4474

“Shortand Long Run Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics” (2018) with F. Bacchini, R. Golinelli & C. Jona-Lasinio, Empirical Economics, 54(2), 343-378

“Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Differences Between Intangible and Physical Investments” (2016) Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 25(3), 240-268 (Invited at the European Commission IRE 4th Conference on Corporate R&D and Innovation: «Financing R&D and Innovation for Corporate Growth in the EU: Strategies, drivers and barriers» (CONCORDì), Seville, September 26-27, 2013)

“Intangible Capital and Productivity at the Firm Level: a Panel Data Assessment” (2015) with J. Mairesse, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 24(1&2), 22-51

“Implementing a Strategy to Reduce the Instrument Count in Panel GMM” (2015) with I. Mammi, The Stata Journal, 15(4), 1075-1097 

“The Changing Relationship Between Inflation and Cycle in Italy: 1861-2012” (2015) with A. Baffigi, E. Felice & R. Golinelli, Explorations in Economic History, 56, 53-70

“Family Firms’ Investments, Uncertainty and Opacity” (2013) with M. Bianco, R. Golinelli & G. Parigi, Small Business Economics, 40(4), 1035-1058

“The Effect of Neglecting the Slope Parameters Heterogeneity on Dynamic Models of Corporate Capital Structure” (2012) with R. Golinelli, Quantitative Finance, 12(11), 1733–1751 (Also in Midwest Finance Association 2009 Conference, Chicago IL, March 4-7, 2009, Papers and Proceedings; the 1stworkshop on Dynamic Econometrics in memory of Carlo Giannini, University of Pavia, June 10, 2005)

“Pre-Trade Transparency and Trade Size” (2012) with C. Lucarelli, Applied Financial Economics, 22(8), 597-609

“Reaction of the Italian Stock Exchange to Exogenous and Endogenous Events” (2010) with C. Lucarelli, C. Mazzoli & A.G. Quaranta, Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(1), 23-37 (Presented at the Midwest Finance Association 2009 Conference, Chicago IL, March 4-7, 2009)

“Why Demand Uncertainty Curbs Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Firms” (2010) with R. Golinelli & G. Parigi, Journal of Macroeconomics, 32, 218-238

“Entry Strategies into China: the Choice between Joint Ventures and WhollyForeign-Owned Enterprises. An Application to the Italian Manufacturing Sector” (2009) with G. Prodi, International Review of Economics & Finance, 18(1), 11-19

“Intangible Capital and Productivity: an Exploration on a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms” (2008) with J. Mairesse, NBER Working Paper Series  14108, Cambridge, MA. June (Presented at R&D,Science, Innovation and Intellectual Property, International Conference in Honor of Jacques Mairesse, ENSAE, Paris, September 16-17, 2010)

“Corporate Tax Reforms and Financial Choices: an Empirical Analysis” (2005) with S. Giannini & R. Golinelli, Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, 64(2/3), 271-194

“Capital Heterogeneity: Does it Matter? Fundamental Q and Investment on a Panel of Italian Firms” (2004) with A. Del Boca, A. Franzosi, M. Galeotti & P. Rota, The Rand Journal of Economics, 35(4), 674-690

“The Dynamic Specification of the Modified Pecking Order Theory: Its Relevance to Italy” (2002) Empirical Economics, 27(1), 1-22

Other Publications & Media

Intervista sull'incertezza per Mondo Economico n° 5, numero monografico Novembre 2023, pp. 4-7 (pdf here)

"C'è un'altra epidemia da curare: l'incertezza" Lavoce.info 01/06/2020

“L’incremento dell’incertezza economica provocato dalla pandemia COVID-19” Blog di ParliamoneOra 2020, University of Bologna, April 2020

“Uncertainty,Perception and the Internet” with M. Frigeri, R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (1134), 2019  (Presented at: 2018 IAAE International Association for Applied Econometrics Conference, Montreal, Canada, June 26-29, 2018)

“Discussion to 'Il Modello di Microsimulazione delle Imprese dell'Istat'" Atti della 12° Conferenza Nazionale di Statistica, Roma, 22-24 Giugno 2016, III Area Tematica: Innovazioni e Sperimentazioni - Implementare e sviluppare la valutazione delle policy, 2018, 348-351.

“Market Power and Duration of R&D Investment in a Panel of Italian Firms” with L. Lambertini & E. Medeossi, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (1057), 2016 (Presented at The 5th European Conference on Corporate R&D and Innovation: «Industrial Research and Innovation: Evidence for Policy» (CONCORDi-2015), European Commission, Seville, October 1-2, 2015)

“A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?” with R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (1062), 2016 (Achievement) (Presented at the Macroeconomic of Uncertainty and Volatility, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE), Department of Economics, September 7-9, 2016; The 2nd workshop on "Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy", University College of London, University of Leicester and Banque de France, May 12-13, 2016, London; The 35th International Symposium on Forecasting of the International Institute of Forecasters, Riverside, June 21-24, 2015)

“Dynamic Corporate Capital Structure Behavior: Empirical Assessment in the Light of Heterogeneityand Non Stationarity” with L. Bottazzi & R. Golinelli, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (988), 2015 (Also IGIER Working Paper No. 537, 14 January, 2015)  (Presented at the SIDE Italian Workshop of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (IWEEE): Panel Data Models and Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, January 25-26, 2018; accepted for presentation at the World Finance Conference, Sardinia, Italy, July 26-28, 2017; the SIDE Italian Congress ofEconometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE), Salerno, January 21-23, 2015; the 1st Conference on Recent Developments in Financial Econometrics and Applications, Deakin University, Victoria, Australia, December 4-5, 2014)

 “ICT and Non-ICT Investments: Short and Long Run Macro Dynamics” with F. Bacchini, R. Golinelli & C. Jona Lasinio, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (956), 2014 (Presented at the SIDE Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE), Salerno, January 21-23, 2015; the 55th Italian Economic Association AnnualConference, Trento, October 23-25, 2014; ISTAT, Rome, 20 January 2014; the DIW Macroeconometric Workshop, Berlin, November 29-30, 2013)

“pca2: Implementinga Strategy to Reduce the Instrument Count in Panel GMM” with I. Mammi, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (960), 2014 (Presented at the SIDE Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE), Genoa, January 16-18, 2013; the 19th IPDC, Cass Business School, London, July 4-5, 2013; the 54th Italian Economic Association Annual Conference, University of Bologna, October 24-26, 2013)

“Output Potenziale, Gap e Inflazione in Italia nel Lungo Periodo (1861-2010): un'analisieconometria” with A. Baffigi & R. Golinelli, Quaderni di Storia Economica, Banca d’Italia, n. 29, 2013 (Presented at I conti nazionali dell’Italia: la nuova ricostruzione deidati storici, 1861-2011, Bank of Italy, April 16, 2012)

“The Macroeconometric models for Italy (MEMO-IT): Policy Evaluation and Future Challenges” with F. Bacchini, C. Brandimarte, R. Golinelli, C. Jona-Lasinio & C. Pappalardo, Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografica e Statistica, 2013, LXVII, 2, 171-179

“The ISTAT MeMo-It Macroeconometric Model: Comments and Suggestions for Possible Extensions” Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale, ISTAT, 2013, 1, 47-56 (Presented at the Italian Economic AssociationAnnual Conference, Matera, October 18-20, 2013)

“A Strategy to Reduce the Count of Moment Conditions in Panel Data GMM” with I. Mammi, Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (843), 2012 (Presented at the 18th IPDC, Banque de France, Paris, July 5-6, 2012)

“Perché l’incertezza sulla domanda frena l’attività d’investimento” with R. Golinelli & G. Parigi, Temi di Discussione Bank of Italy Working Paper N. 621, 2007

“Strategie d’entrata in Cina: la scelta tra JV e Wofe. Una applicazione al settore manifatturiero italiano” with G. Prodi, Quaderni del Dipartimento DEIT, University of Ferrara, N. 10/2006

“Corporate Taxation and Financing Decisions in Italy: a Modified Pecking Order Approach” with S. Giannini & R. Golinelli, Quaderni del Dipartimento DEIT, University of Ferrara, N. 10/2005

“Corporate Tax Reforms and Financial Choices: an Empirical Analysis” with S. Giannini & R. Golinelli, Quaderni del Dipartimento DEIT, University of Ferrara, N. 9/2005

“Corporate Taxation and its Reforms: Effects on Corporate Financing Decisions in Italy” with S. Giannini & R. Golinelli, Diritti, Regole, Mercato. Economia pubblica ed analisi economica del diritto", XV Conference SIEP - Italian Society of Public Economics – University of Pavia, October 3-4, 2003, v. II, 1255-81

“Incentivi agli investimenti e tassazione dei profitti: l'impatto delle recenti riforme fiscali sul cash flow delle società di capitali” with S. Giannini, M. C. Guerra & A. Tiraferri, Politica Economica, 2001, 3, 249-284

“Le determinanti del leverage delle imprese: una applicazione empirica ai settori industriali dell'economia italiana” with R. Golinelli, Studi e Note di Economia, 1996, 2, 35-66