Journal Articles
"Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy." International Journal of Central Banking (forthcoming).
"When are trend-cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?" Empirical Economics. Volume 62, pages 2417-2460, August 2022.
"Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy." Empirical Economics. Volume 62, pages 1517-1542, June 2022.
"Good Policy or Good Luck? Analyzing the Effects of Fiscal Policy and Oil Revenue Shocks in Ecuador." Energy Economics. Volume 100, August 2021.
"An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity." European Economic Review. Volume 120, November 2019.
"Estimating the U.S. output gap with state-level data." Journal of Applied Econometrics; 34: 795-810 (2019).
"A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth." Economic Modelling; 82: 250-263 (2019).
"Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; 50: 115–154. (2018)
"Elasticidades de Sustitución de Importaciones para Ecuador," Revista Tecnológica ESPOL, Vol. 18, N. 1, 173-180 (Octubre, 2005) Abstract
Working Papers
"Fiscal Consolidations in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A DSGE Perspective." With Juan Guerra-Salas and Avi Lipton (2024)
"Macroeconomic Stars in a Hysteresis World." With Antoine Lepetit and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2024)
"Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDS series (Paper: 2023-070, 11.06.2023). Abstract
"Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDS series (Paper: 2013-58, 20.09.2013) Abstract
"An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play," Working Paper (2009) Abstract
"Inflation-Proof Credits and Financial Instruments. Making the Fisher Hypothesis a Reality," Working Paper (2005) Abstract
"La Curva de Retorno y el Modelo C-CAPM: Evidencia para Chile," Master's Thesis, Universidad de Chile (2005) Abstract
Book Chapters
"Dolarización: efectos y riesgos en el caso ecuatoriano," in M. Villalba (Ed.), Dolarización: dos décadas después. Consorcio de Gobiernos Autónomos Provinciales del Ecuador - CONGOPE: Ediciones Abya Yala. (2019)
Other Work
"A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US." FEDS Notes (2019)
"Time variation in upside and downside risks to the staff baseline forecast." Memo to the FOMC (2017)