Makram Khalil

Published articles

Global value chain particiaption and exchange rate pass-through (with G. Georgiadis, J. Gräb and A. Kutten). IMF Economic Review. Forthcoming.

Earlier versions: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 67/2020, ECB Working Paper No. 2327 November 2019

US trade policy and the US dollar (with F. Strobel).  Journal of International Economics. Volume 151, 103970, September 2024. 

Correspondonig Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 47/2021 and related Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief 58/2023. 

Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services. Journal of International Economics. Volume 134, January 2022. 

Corresponding Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 60/2020 and related Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief 40/2021.

Cross-border portfolio diversification under trade linkages. Journal of Monetary Economics. Volume 104, Pages 114-128, June 2019.

Working papers and work in progress

Import tariff transmission in a production network (with P. Rouillard and F. Strobel). 

Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk (with D. Osten and F. Strobel). 

Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 3/2025.  Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief 74/2025.

Product turnover and endogenous price flexibility in uncertain times (with V. Lewis). 

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18941, July 2024. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 14/2024. Vox EU article. 

Capital reallocation under climate policy uncertainty (with F. Strobel). Revise & Resubmit European Economic Review.

Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 23/2023. SUERF Policy Brief No. 763.

Chinese supply chain shocks (with M.-D. Weber). 

Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 44/2022. SUERF Policy Brief No. 543.

Policy reports

Contribution to Attinasi et al. (2024): Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks. ECB Occasional Paper No. 365..

Contribution to Ioannou et al. (2023): The EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy from a central banking perspective - Challenges to the monetary policy landscape from a changing geopolitical environment. ECB Occasional Paper No. 311.

Policy writings

Khalil M., D. Osten and F. Strobel, 2025, Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk, SUERF Policy Brief No. 1144.

Khalil M., D. Osten and F. Strobel, 2025, Geopolitical risks are weighing on euro area and US foreign trade, Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief No. 74.

Khalil M. and V. Lewis, 2024: Price and output responses to supply disruptions in times of high uncertainty, Vox EU article April 2024.

Khalil M. and F. Strobel, 2023: Capital reallocation towards greener production under climate policy uncertainty, SUERF Policy Brief No. 763.

Khalil M. and M.-D. Weber, 2023: How shocks to Chinese supply chains affect US and euro area manufacturing, SUERF Policy Brief No. 543.

Khalil M. and F. Strobel, 2023, How the US dollar, as a reserve currency, restricts US trade policy, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Brief No. 58.

Khalil M., 2021: Dynamics in the crude oil market dictated by the manufacturing sector, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Brief No 40.

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