Vivien J. Lewis

Work in Progress

A Simple Model of Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions (with Sirikorn Puangjit), August 2025.  Submitted. Online Appendix.

Product Turnover and Endogenous Price Flexibility in Uncertain Times (with Makram Khalil), February 2025.  CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18941. Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 14/2024, VoxEU.org.

Risky Firms and Fragile Banks: Implications for Macroprudential Policy (with Tommaso Gasparini, Stéphane Moyen and Stefania Villa), July 2025. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18915. Discussion on e-axes.com. Online Appendix. Rej&R, Journal of International Money and Finance.

Spending Effects of Fiscal Transfers in a Pandemic (with Olga Goldfayn-Frank and Nils Wehrhöfer), February 2023 (first draft February 2022). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 17058, Bundesbank Discussion Paper 26/2022, VoxEU.org.

Labor Productivity, Effort and the Euro Area Business Cycle (with Stefania Villa), July 2025.  CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18389. Online Appendix. R&R, European Economic Review.

Corporate Taxes, Productivity and Business Dynamism (with Andrea Colciago and Branka Matyska), December 2023.  CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18854. Online Appendix.

Work Effort and the Cycle: Evidence from Survey Data (with Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz and David van Dijcke), April 2023.

The Interdependence of Monetary and Macroprudential Policy under the Zero Lower Bound (with Stefania Villa), September 2017. Under revision.

Published and Forthcoming Articles

(17) Geopolitical Risk Perceptions (with Yevheniia Bondarenko,  Matthias Rottner and Yves Schüler), September 2024. Journal of International Economics 104005. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18123. Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 37/2024. VoxEU.org, Faculti interview, Data set. 

(16) Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD (with Maarten Dossche and Andrea Gazzani), January 2023. Review of Economic Dynamics 47, 111-130. Online Appendix. CEPR Discussion Paper n° 16202, ECB Working Paper n° 2571, Bundesbank Discussion Paper 22/2021, VoxEU.org, SUERF Policy Brief No 177.  Replication files:  Scatter plots, IRF comparison, moment comparison, match scatter, readme. 

(15) Going the Extra Mile: Effort by Workers and Job-Seekers (with Matthias Hertweck and Stefania Villa), December 2021. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53(8), 2099-2127. 

(14) The Financial Market Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programs (with Markus Roth), August 2019. Journal of Financial Stability 43, 40-52.  Media coverage: Handelsblatt, n-tv.

(13) Employment, Hours and the Welfare Effects of Intra-Firm Bargaining (with Maarten Dossche and Céline Poilly), June 2019. Journal of Monetary Economics 104, 67-84.

(12) Interest Rate Rules under Financial Dominance (with Markus Roth), October 2018. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 95, 70-88. 

(11) Fiscal Policy and Inflation in a Monetary Union (with José-Miguel Cardoso-Costa), October 2017. Economica 84(336), 779–796. 

(10) Government Spending, Entry and the Consumption Crowding-In Puzzle, (with Roland Winkler), August 2017. International Economic Review 58(3), 943–972. 

(9) Fiscal Policy and Business Formation in Open Economies (with Roland Winkler), December 2015. Research in Economics 69(4), 603-620. 

(8) Product Diversity, Demand Structures and Optimal Taxation (with Roland Winkler), April 2015. Economic Inquiry 53(2), 979-1003. 

(7) Entry and Markup Dynamics in an Estimated Business Cycle Model (with Arnoud Stevens), February 2015. European Economic Review 74, 14-35.  Winnaar VvE-Prijs 2013 / Winner of the Prize of the Economics Society Flanders 2013, www.vve.be.  Online Appendix.

(6) Optimal Monetary Policy and Firm Entry, November 2013. Macroeconomic Dynamics 17(8), 1687-1710. 

(5) Firm Entry, Markups and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism (with Céline Poilly), November 2012. Journal of Monetary Economics 59(7), 670-685.  

(4) Robust Monetary Policy in a Model with Financial Distress (with Rafael Gerke and Felix Hammermann), June 2012. Journal of Macroeconomics 34(2), 318-325.

(3) Business Cycle Evidence on Firm Entry, November 2009. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13(5), 605-624.

(2) Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle (with Agnieszka Markiewicz), April 2009. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 9(1) (Topics), Article 13. 

(1) Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate, July 2007. Review of World Economics 127(2), 324-348.

Policy Writings

Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Yves Schüler (2025), Geopolitical risk in the euro area. VoxEU article.  Euro area Geopolitical Risk index.

Khalil, Makram and Vivien Lewis (2024), Price and output responses to supply disruptions in times of high uncertainty. VoxEU article.

Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Yves Schüler (2023), Measuring geopolitical risk: perceptions matter. VoxEU article.

Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Vivien Lewis and Nils Wehrhöfer (2022). Spending effects of fiscal transfers in a pandemic. VoxEU article.

Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Vivien Lewis and Nils Wehrhöfer (2022). Der Kinderbonus in der Corona-Pandemie: Umverteilung statt Fiskalimpuls. Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief 48. Ausgabe - Juni 2022 / The child bonus in the coronavirus pandemic: a case of redistribution rather than fiscal stimulus.  Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief 48th Edition - June 2022. 

Albertazzi et al (2021). The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy in the euro area. ECB Occasional Paper N° 272.  

Dossche, Maarten; Andrea Gazzani and Vivien Lewis (2021). Labour adjustment and productivity dynamics: Cross-country evidence and policy implications. VoxEU article.

Book Chapters

Decoster, André and Erwin Ooghe (2017). ‘Economie. Een Inleiding'. Leuven University Press. Chapters 25-27.

Discussions

Graves, S. C. Huckfeldt and E. Swanson (2024), The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy. ECB Conference on Macroeconomic Modelling, 28th November 2024, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

Caldara, D., S. Conlisk, M. Iacoviello and M. Penn (2024), Do Geopolitical Risks Raise of Lower Inflation. DNB Annual Research Conference, 21st November 2024, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam.

Consolo, A. and M. Hänsel (2024), HANK faces Unemployment. ECB Research Task Force on Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics and Finance, 17th October 2024, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

Gödl, M. and I. Gödl-Hanisch (2023), Wage setting in times of high and low inflation. NBB Workshop on Macroeconomics and Survey Data, 18th December 2023, National Bank of Belgium, Brussels.

Botelho, V., A. Consolo, M. Mamertino and S. Ó'Muineacháin (2023), Estimating matching efficiency in the euro area using data from LinkedIn. Labour Market Contact Group workshop, 21st November 2023, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

Bilbiie, F. and M. Melitz (2020), Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier. Annual Research Conference 2021 - European Commission, 15th November 2021, Brussels.

Bianchi, F., L. Melosi and A. Rogantini Picco (2021), Who is afraid of Eurobonds? CEBRA Conference, 7th-9th July 2021, virtual.

Meier, M. and T. Reinelt (2020), Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP. Frankfurt-Mannheim Macro Workshop, 10th-11th September 2020, virtual.

Besley, T.; I. Roland and J. van Reenen (2018), The Aggregate Effects of Credit Market Frictions: Evidence from Firm-level Default Assessments. Annual DNB Research Conference, 12th-13th November 2018, De Nederlandsche Bank. 

Carletti, E.; R. Marquez and S. Petriconi (2017), The Redistributive Effects of Bank Capital Regulation. BBK-CEPR-IWH Conference: 'The Future of Financial Intermediation', 9th November 2017, Eltville am Rhein.

Benigno, P. and S. Nistico (2017), The Non-Neutrality of Open-Market Operations. Annual DNB Research Conference, 9th-10th October 2017, De Nederlandsche Bank. 

Rabanal, P. and M. Taheri-Sanjani (2015), Incorporating Financial Cycles in Output Gap Measures: Estimates for the Euro Area. Ghent Workshop on Empirical Macroeconomics, Ghent University, 2nd June 2015.

Andrade, P., C. Cahn, H. Fraisse and J.-S. Mesonnier (2014), Can Unlimited Liquidity Provision Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs. T2M Conference, 27th March 2015, Humboldt University Berlin.

Menna, L. and P. Tirelli (2014), Limited Asset Market Participation and Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policies. Meeting of Rastanews Project, 12th March 2015, Bicocca University Milan.

Weber, H. (2013), Learning by Doing in New Firms and the Optimal Rate of Inflation. Bundesbank Task Force on Monetary Transmission, 2nd workshop, 30th January 2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.

Casares, M. and J.-C. Poutineau (2014), A DSGE Model with Endogenous Entry and Exit. 1st Macro-Economics International Workshop, 4th and 5th December 2014, University of Rennes.

Abbate, A. and D. Thaler (2014), Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Risk Taking. Bundesbank Task Force on Monetary Transmission workshop, 1st October 2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.

Bacchetta, P., K. Benhima and C. Poilly (2014), Corporate Cash and Employment. Norges Bank Workshop: New Development in Business Cycle Analysis: The Role of Labor Markets and International Linkages, 20th June 2014, Norges Bank.   

Zervou, A. (2013), Firms’ Finance, Cyclical Sensitivity and the Role of Monetary Policy. DNB Conference The Role of Financial Intermediaries in Monetary Policy Transmission, 20th June 2013, De Nederlandsche Bank.

Quint, D. and P. Rabanal (2013), Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area. Workshop on Empirical Macroeconomics, 7th June 2013, Ghent University.

Buzaushina, A., Z. Enders and M. Hoffmann (2011), International Financial Markets' Influence on the Pricing Currency Choice. Joint Lunchtime Seminar Special Event on Macro and Finance, 14th October 2011, Goethe University Frankfurt.

Adam, K., P. Kuang and A. Marcet (2011), House Price Booms and the Current Account. Frankfurt-Mannheim Macro Workshop, 30th May 2011, Goethe University Frankfurt.

Kempf, H. and L. von Thadden (2010), When Do Cooperation and Commitment Matter in a Monetary Union? IMFS Workshop on "Recent Developments in Macroeconomic Policy", 11th April 2011, Goethe University Frankfurt.

Refereeing

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economic Modelling, Economic Analysis and Policy, Economics and Business Letters, European Economic Review, International Economic Review, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Common Market Studies, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Manchester School, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Oxford Economic Papers, Review of Economic Dynamics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, Southern Economic Journal.

Research Networks

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR),  http://www.cepr.org

‘Integrated Macro-Financial Modelling for Robust Policy Design’, 2014-2017, EU-funded Research Project, 7th Framework Programme, www.macfinrobods.eu.

‘The Transmission Mechanism of New and Traditional Instruments of Monetary and Macroprudential Policy’, 2015-2016, Joint Research project, National Bank of Belgium.

Short Bio

I am an economist at the Research Centre of Deutsche Bundesbank, the German central bank. My research interests are in macroeconomics and business cycle analysis. More specifically, I work on labour economics; monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy; firm dynamics and international macroeconomics. I received a PhD in Economics from KU Leuven in 2008, an M.Sc. in Public Financial Policy from the London School of Economics (UK) in 2002 and a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK) in 2000. 

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Disclaimer

My research page on the Bundesbank's website can be found here. The Bundesbank has no control of or responsibility for this site's contents.