Maik Wolters

Professor of Monetary Economics and International Financial Markets at the University of Würzburg



Research Interests: Business Cycles, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Financial Stability, Forecasting

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Working Papers

The Federal Reserve’s Output Gap: The Unreliability of Real-Time Reliability Tests, with Josefine Quast, R&R, new version coming soon.

Global Financial Cycles since 1880, with Galina Potjagailo.

Labor Productivity, Effort and the Euro Area Business Cycle, with Vivien Lewis and Stefania Villa.


Recent Publications

Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40(1): 152-168.

Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, with Magnus Reif and Mewael Tesfaselassie, Economica, 2021, 88(352): 1016-1053.

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36(3): 829-850.

Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired? with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15(4): 81-126.

How the Baby Boomers’ Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33(5): 680-689.

The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment, with Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28: 34-50.

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, January/February 2015, 30(1): 74-96.