Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Kiel
Affiliated Professor: Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe-University Frankfurt
Research Director: ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys
Research Fellow: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Research Interests: Business Cycles, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Financial Stability, Forecasting
Estimation and Simulation of Macroeconomic Models with Transitions to a Zero Interest Rate and Low Inflation Equilibrium, German National Science Foundation (DFG), 2022-2025.
The Federal Reserve’s Output Gap: The Unreliability of Real-Time Reliability Tests, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40(1): 152-168.
Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, with Magnus Reif and Mewael Tesfaselassie, Economica, 2021, 88(352): 1016-1053.
Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36(3): 829-850.
Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired? with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15(4): 81-126.
How the Baby Boomers’ Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33(5): 680-689.
The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment, with Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28: 34-50.