Maik Wolters

Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Kiel

Research Interests: Business Cycles, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Financial Stability, Forecasting

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Estimation and Simulation of Macroeconomic Models with Transitions to a Zero Interest Rate and Low Inflation Equilibrium, German National Science Foundation (DFG), 2022-2025.

Recent Publications 

The Federal Reserve’s Output Gap: The Unreliability of Real-Time Reliability Tests, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.

Global Financial Cycles since 1880, with Galina Potjagailo, Journal of International Money & Finance, 2023, 131: 102801.

Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40(1): 152-168.  

Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, with Magnus Reif and Mewael Tesfaselassie, Economica, 2021, 88(352): 1016-1053.

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model,  with Kai CarstensenMarkus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, International Journal of Forecasting, 2020,  36(3): 829-850.

Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired? with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15(4): 81-126.

How the Baby Boomers’ Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33(5): 680-689.

The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment, with Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28: 34-50.