The Child Tax Credit Over Time by Family Type (2023) National Tax Journal, 76(3): 707-741. With Olga Malkova
Abstract: We examine disparities in Child Tax Credit (CTC) eligibility and anti-poverty effects since 1998 by family type. Initially, single mothers were least likely to be eligible and were underrepresented among those lifted from poverty by the CTC, because the credit was virtually nonrefundable. By 2017, disparities by family type mostly disappear, as eligibility and anti-poverty effectiveness of the CTC among single mothers increases dramatically, because of reforms increasing CTC refundability. When the credit doubles in 2018, disparities revert toward initial levels, as eligibility and the anti-poverty effectiveness of single mothers rises least, because of a phaseout threshold expansion and partial refundability.
Drill, Baby, Drill: Natural Resource Shocks and Fertility in Indonesia (2022). Labour Economics, 76: 102178. With Paul A. Brehm
Abstract: We find that positive natural resource shocks lead to increased fertility in Indonesia by exploiting temporal variation in world oil prices and cross-sectional variation in oil endowments across regencies. Results are driven by women of all ages, by both first and higher order births, and we find no evidence of changes in birth spacing. Altogether, this indicates in increase in completed fertility. We present empirical evidence and cite prior literature demonstrating corresponding improvements in households' economic outcomes, consistent with positive income effects on fertility in a developing country.
The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates (2022). American Journal of Health Economics, 8(3): 387-411. With Paul A. Brehm and Martin Saavedra
Abstract: We find that Ohio's "Vax-a-Million" lottery increased first dose Covid-19 vaccinations by between 50,000 and 100,000, with most of the additional doses occurring during the two weeks between the announcement and the first lottery drawing. We use county-level data and two empirical approaches to provide causal estimates of the lottery in Ohio. First, a difference-in-differences design compares vaccination rates in border counties in Ohio and Indiana before and after the announcement. Second, we use a pooled synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual for each of Ohio's counties using control counties in Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The synthetic control analysis reveals larger increases in vaccination rates in more populous counties. Our estimates imply that Ohio paid about $75 per additional starting dose during this period.
The Federal Adoption Tax Credit and Adoptions from Foster Care (2021). Journal of Human Resources, 56(4): 1031-1072.
Abstract: This paper uses administrative data on the universe of public adoptions to investigate whether the federal Adoption Tax Credit influences adoptions from foster care. Using a bunching analysis, I exploit a two-year change in 2010 and 2011 that made the credit refundable. I estimate there were about 2,400 more foster care adoptions, a 44 percent increase, nationwide in December 2011 than had the refundable credit not expired. Of this increase, I estimate an upper bound on the number of new adoptions of 1,790. Assuming all of the increase reflects re-timing, I estimate a pull-forward window of up to six months.
The Effects of Federal Adoption Incentive Awards for Older Children on Adoptions from U.S. Foster Care (2018). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 37(2): 301-330.
Abstract: This paper analyzes states' response to the 2003 and 2008 changes in the federal Adoption Incentives program to increase adoptions from the U.S. foster care system. The 2003 change introduced a $4,000 payment to states for every adoption of a child aged 9 and older above a state-specific baseline. In 2008, the payment was doubled to $8,000. Using a discrete hazard model cast in a difference-in-differences framework, I do not find robust evidence that the incentives increased the probability of adoption for older children relative to younger children following the policy changes. I also do not find that the incentives affected the timing of adoption, likelihood of termination of parental rights, or the amounts of adoption assistance for older children relative to younger children. The findings illustrate the incentives are unable to help states overcome many of the challenges associated with achieving adoption for older children.
Achievement Effects of Individual Performance Incentives in a Teacher Merit Pay Tournament (2017). Labour Economics, 44:133-150. With Scott Imberman and Michael Lovenheim.
Abstract: This paper examines the role of worker performance feedback and measurement precision in the design of incentive pay systems, specifically in the context of an individual teacher value-added merit pay tournament. We first build a model in which workers use proximity to an award threshold to update their beliefs about their own ability, which informs their expected marginal return to effort. The model predicts that effort will be maximized at some point proximal to but above the award threshold in order to maximize the likelihood of winning an award when effort translates into value-added with noise. As the noise in the value-added measure increases, teacher effort becomes less responsive to prior value-added because the value-added score becomes a less reliable measure of ability. Using administrative teacher-student linked data from Houston, we test the central perdition of the model that there should be excess achievement gains near award thresholds. The data strongly reject the existence of such excess gains. We argue that a likely reason for this lack of responsiveness is that the value-added measures used to determine awards were too noisy to provide informative feedback about one's ability.
Capitalization of Charter Schools into Residential Property Values (2017). Education Finance and Policy, 12(1):1-27.
With Scott Imberman and Michael Naretta.
Abstract: While there is substantial evidence on the effectiveness of charter schools on student outcomes, far less is known about how the public more generally values these schools. Using housing sale price data in Los Angeles County from 2008 to 2011 we estimate the impact of having charter schools nearby on housing prices. Even though the charters in our data typically do not have catchment areas, nearby charter schools could impact housing prices if people value having alternative schooling options near their homes or if charters affect how neighborhood schools perform. Nonetheless, using an identification strategy that relies on census block fixed-effects and variation in charter penetration over time, we find little evidence that the availability of charter schools affect housing prices.
"The Economics of Adoption" (2023) in Research Handbook on Adoption, Edward Elgar Research Handbook in Family Law Series, edited by Nigel Lowe and Claire Fenton-Glynn, Edward Elgar Publishing.
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics, with Nick Huntington-Klein, Claus C. Portner, and 148 others.
The Child Tax Credit, Parental Labor Supply and Poverty: Evidence from New York, with Olga Malkova and Kenneth Tester
Ten or Twenty Years in the Making? How Social Security Rules Affect the Timing of Divorce, with Stacy Dickert-Conlin and Cristian Meghea
Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Foster Care Entry
Make Me a Match: State Responses to a Federal Matching Grant and Adoption from Foster Care
Don't Look Back: The Effect of Federal Financing to States on Foster Care Placement, with Mary E. Hansen