Research
Climate Variability + Change Overview
I am interested in how internal climate variability will combine with climate change to impact humans and our environment.
If natural, low-frequency (decadal-multidecadal) climate variations are weak relative to the global warming signal, then local changes will occur steadily through time. By contrast, if internal decadal-multidecadal climate variability is relatively strong, then abrupt changes will follow decades with relatively little change.
Here I outline a few examples related to the importance of studying forced changes and internal variability in the climate system:
Example 1: Drought
Climate change may drive increases in evaporation and temperature in a warming world, but internal background hydroclimatic (rainfall, temperature) variability will co-occur with future forced changes to climate. If internal, interannual variability is relatively strong, then the drying effect of climate change may be felt relatively slowly. By contrast, if internal, low-frequency variability combines with forced warming and drying, we could experience abrupt decades of extended drought much earlier in the 21st century.
