The symposium will feature short proffered talks. Invited speakers include the following.
Anthony O'Hagan (Emeritus Professor at the University of Sheffield). O'Hagan's research focusses on the theory and application of Bayesian statistics, in particular in the elicitation of expert knowledge, managing and quantifying uncertainty in the use of complex mechanistic modelling and Bayesian modelling. O'Hagan has done extensive research and consulting activities in many application areas, particularly in medicine, environmental science, asset management, and health economics. On the topic of expert elicitation, O'Hagan is responsible for a number of significant developments. With his extensive experience in research, teaching and practice, he is one of the foremost experts in the field. http://www.tonyohagan.co.uk/
Mark Burgman (Director of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London). Burgman's research focusses on expert judgement, ecological modelling, conservation biology, and risk assessment. Burgman has done practical and theoretical research in application areas such as biosecurity, medicine regulation, marine fisheries, forestry, irrigation, electrical power utilities, mining, and national park planning. On the topic of expert elicitation, Burgman has contributed extensively to the field combining psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates, structured elicitation protocols to improve the accuracy of expert judgement, and examination of trade-offs of group-based versus individual elicitation. Burgman has advised government agencies on the use of expert elicitation in policy decisions. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/m.burgman
Fernand Gobet (Professor of Psychological Sciences in the Institute of Population Health Sciences). Gobet's research focusses on cognitive science, cognitive psychology, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, education, and philosophy. Gobet brings the psychological perspectives on human expertise, how this reflects basic traits such as personality and intelligence, as well as knowledge and skills acquired through training. His publications include many books and scholarly articles on expert elicitation. https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/psychology-health-and-society/staff/fernand-gobet/
Laura Bojke (Reader, Centre for Health Economics, University of York). Bojke has conducted research in expert elicitation exploring uncertainty within decision-analytic models in health technology assessment and economic evaluation for two decades. Her research involves the use of expert-elicited data within decision analytic models and is particularly focussed on application to issues of extrapolation uncertainty. Her experience includes a wide range of applied and methodological problems in modelling the cost-effectiveness of human disease treatments. https://www.york.ac.uk/che/staff/research/laura-bojke/
Scott Ferson (Director of the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty at the University of Liverpool). Ferson's recent research has focused on developing methods and software to solve quantitative assessment problems when data are poor or lacking and structural knowledge about the model is severely limited. Ferson's contribution to the field of expert elicitation includes quantitative decoding of natural-language words used to express uncertainty ('hedges'), estimation of rare-event probabilities without data, and extensions of probability theory to deal with analyses with little or no data. https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/engineering/staff/scott-ferson