Expert elicitation is the synthesis of authoritative opinions on a subject where there is uncertainty due to a lack of data. In fact, expert elicitation is being more and more widely considered as a practicable alternative to actual empirical effort and collection of relevant data. In any case, expert elicitation is often the only available way to estimate many of the inputs needed for important assessments and evaluations demanded in our modern technological advanced society.

Recently there have been several prominent books on this topic from various quarters in the social, biological, and physical sciences, with rather divergent stories about best practices. So what are the clear dicta about how we should elicit quantitative estimates from informants, how we can evaluate their estimates, and how we can combine them and process their estimates in calculations?

The Institute for Risk and Uncertainty at the University of Liverpool hosted a two-day symposium on expert elicitation over 13-14 February 2019. Its purpose was to develop some synoptic guidance for practitioners who must address expert opinions in their quantitative risk assessments. The symposium featured proffered talks and invited presentations by Anthony O'Hagan, Mark Burgman, Fernand Gobet, and Scott Ferson and included considerable time allotted for discussion. All interested students and faculty members from all institutions, business people and industrialists were welcome to attend.

The collaboration born in the symposium continues on this website to write a scientific review of current expert elicitation methods and to develop guidance for their proper application. See the Collaboration page. Let us know if you would like to contribute to this collaboration.