Research
Working Papers:
"Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US Unemployment Rate," 2023.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 23-19.
"Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias," 2023.
with Kenneth D. West
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 23-18.
"An Empirical Evaluation of Some Long-Horizon Macroeconomic Forecasts," 2021.
with Kenneth D. West
NBER Retirement and Disability Research Center Paper NB21-18.
"Monetary Policy, Residential Investment and Search Frictions: An Empirical and Theoretical Synthesis," 2016.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 16-07.
[current version] [Cleveland Fed working paper] [technical appendix] [replication files]
Previous version: "Housing Search and Fluctuations in Residential Construction."
Job Market Paper, University of Wisconsin -- Madison, January 2015. [pdf]
"Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy," 2015.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper no. 15-28.
[current version] [Cleveland Fed working paper] [replication files]
Refereed Publications:
"Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss," 2024.
with Pawel M. Krolikowski
Accepted at Journal of Applied Econometrics
[real-time data] [online appendix ] [link to publication] [replication files]
"The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices," 2024.
with Matthew V. Gordon
Economics Letters, 235:111537.
[online appendix] [link to publication] [Economics Letters rep files] [working paper] [working paper rep files]
"Asymptotically Valid Bootstrap Inference for Proxy SVARs," 2022.
with Carsten Jentsch
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 40(4): 1876-1891.
[link to publication ] [online appendix] [replication files]
"Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," 2020.
American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2899-2934.
[online appendix] [link to publication] [replication files]
Winner of the 2023 Thomas Laubach Research Award from The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Previously titled: "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance."
[Cleveland Fed working paper] [replication files]
"Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates," 2019.
with Kenneth D. West
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11 (4): 113-139.
[online appendix] [link to publication] [replication files (1.7 GB)]
"The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Comment," 2019.
with Carsten Jentsch
American Economic Review, 109 (7): 2655-2678.
[online appendix] [link to publication] [replication files]
"Forecasting Residential Investment in the United States," 2015.
International Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2): 276-285.
[link to publication] [replication files]
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentaries:
"The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Treasury Interest Rates," 2024.
with Matthew V. Gordon
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2024-01.
"The Discrepancy Between Expenditure- and Income-Side Estimates of US Output," 2023.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2023-01.
"Underemployment Following the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession," 2022.
with Daniela Dean Avila
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2022-01.
[technical appendix] [replication files]
"Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate," 2021.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2021-01.
[technical appendix] [replication files]
"Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator," 2019.
with Pawel M. Krolikowski and Meifeng Yang
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2019-21.
[technical appendix] [replication files]
"Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements," 2019.
with Victoria N. Consolvo
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2019-05.
[technical appendix] [replication files]
"Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?," 2018.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2018-06.
"Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run," 2017.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2017-20.
[technical appendix] [replication files]
"Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth," 2017.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, Number 2017-06.