Research
Working papers:
"Under the (neighbor)Hood: Understanding Interactions Among Zoning Regulations" with Aradhya Sood and Nick Chiumenti, Revise & Resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics
Other working paper versions: April 2022 Draft, Federal Reseve Bank of Boston Working Paper No. 22-10, New England Public Policy Center Research Report, CAGE advantage
Media coverage: Brookings, Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Forbes, George Washington University Regulation Digest, Science Vs
Abstract: This paper studies how various land-use regulations interact to affect housing supply and affordability. We use cross-sectional variation across space from novel parcel-level zoning data and a boundary discontinuity design at regulation boundaries to obtain causal estimates for the effect of various zoning regulations on the supply of different types of housing, single-family house prices, multifamily rents,and households’ willingness-to-pay for higher density. We find that relaxing density restrictions (minimum lot size and maximum dwelling units), either alone or jointly with relaxing other regulations, is most effective at increasing supply, particularly of multifamily properties, and reducing rents and house prices. Conversely, enabling multifamily zoning or relaxing height regulations alone has little impact. Our results suggest that the small-scale reforms in zoning regulations proposed around the country can increase housing affordability. However, a fall in multifamily rents is often accompanied by a reduction in single-family house prices, complicating the political economy of land-use reform.
"Sorting into Neighborhoods: The Role of Minimum Lot Sizes"
Abstract: This paper examines how land use regulations induce households to sort by income into differently regulated neighborhoods using the example of minimum lot sizes. By imposing a floor on housing consumption, high minimum lot sizes play a role in limiting access to neighborhoods that may have more amenities. First, I quantify the effect of minimum lot size regulations on neighborhood composition using a boundary discontinuity design. I find that at boundaries with the average level of regulation, average household income increases by 4.5% for a decrease in the density by one dwelling unit per acre. This is a considerable effect compared to the sorting induced by boundaries with sharp changes in public goods provision. Next, I develop a neighborhood choice model in which minimum lot sizes affect the trade-off between neighborhood amenities and consumption. I use the model to study the effects of relaxing minimum lot size restrictions on sorting and welfare. Average neighborhood income is 30% lower in a high-amenity neighborhood with relaxed minimum lot size. I find that households with at least the area’s median income benefit from this policy. The price of vacant land that is regulated in different ways depends on the degree to which the regulation imposes a constraint on demand given the available quantity of land.
"Rural Physician Shortages and Policy Intervention", with Dennis B. McWeeny, Submitted
Abstract: Populations in areas with shortages of primary care physicians have measurably worse health outcomes. Using a stacked differences-in-differences approach, we estimate that student loan forgiveness programs - a prominent category of government incentive policies intended to reduce or eliminate shortages - lead to an increase of three physicians, on average, per rural US county in the long run. We then estimate a structural model of physician specialty and location decisions to simulate counterfactual incentive policies. We find that physicians are relatively unresponsive to differences in salaries across locations and prefer to practice medicine in their home state. Consequently, current incentive payments are too small to eliminate shortages. Policy makers could focus on recruiting medical students from rural areas, making primary care more attractive relative to other specialties, and protecting areas close to shortages.
"When is Long-Run Agglomeration Possible? Evidence from County Seat Wars", with Cory Smith, Submitted
Abstract: We study the factors that foster long-run urban growth using a unique setting of close elections that determined "county seats" (capitals) in the frontier United States. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that winning towns experienced rapid population and income growth as migrants coordinated on them as their counties' economic centers. We show that this coordination was largest in smaller towns and in the years close to county creation. Using generalized random forests, we also show that the economic benefits were not zero sum locally: specific choices of county seat could increase long-run county population and income. County administration was limited in this era and did not play a substantial role in this process. Instead, these results are consistent with theories of economic geography in which there are strong local returns to scale and equilibria can be selected through historical and political events, even when geographic fundamentals are similar.
"The Effect of Learning the Language on Labor Market Outcomes - Introduction of Integration Courses in Germany" [Draft available on request]
Abstract: This paper studies the effects of local language skills on labor market outcomes of immigrants by analyzing the introduction of so-called integration courses in Germany in 2004. An integration course consists of a 600 hour language class and a 60 hour cultural module. I use data from the German Socio Economic Panel (GSOEP) to estimate a fuzzy regression discontinuity model with two instruments. The program is mandatory for some immigrants but it is open to almost all others as well on a voluntary basis. This allows me to use two instruments, one that affects the entire group of immigrants and another that affects mostly the mandated group. For all immigrants, I find statistically significant and robust increases in monthly wage and in the probability of full time employment due to an improvement in language skills after the introduction of integration courses. I also find statistically significant increases of the order of 30% in the probability of full time and general employment for those immigrants arriving after 2004.
Publications:
"International Applicability of Education and Migration Aspirations" with Till Nikolka, Panu Poutvaara and Silke Uebelmesser, (2024, Journal of Economic Geography)
Abstract: We analyze perceptions of international applicability of one’s education and migration aspirations and intentions among university students in Czechia, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Spain. Students in law perceive their education least internationally applicable. Perceived international applicability strongly predicts migration aspirations and intentions also after controlling for study fields, individual characteristics, and university fixed effects. Furthermore, among those not studying law, hours spent studying are increasing with perceived international applicability of one’s education. Our findings are consistent with predictions from a model in which students invest in their education before learning their mobility status.
"Buying Consumption Smoothing: Saving for the Future by Buying Ahead" with J. Michael Collins, (2023, Fiscal Studies)
Abstract: This study considers an under-explored channel through which credit-constrained house- holds may smooth consumption – buying ahead. We employ a differences-in-differences-in-differences strategy and exploit variation from state tax laws introduced in different states in different years. Using toilet paper as an example of a widely bought, necessary and storable product, we compare how households’ purchasing behavior changes in response to transitory income from tax refunds. We find that households increase the amount of toilet paper purchased by around 20% in response to a state income tax refund, but do not increase the purchased quantity of perishables. The inter-purchase time for toilet paper also increases, ruling out that households are simply increasing consumption in response to more income. Finally, households increase expenditures on toilet paper only by 11%, indicating that they are saving per unit by buying in larger quantities. Buying ahead appears to allow households to smooth consumption by purchasing a stockpile of non-perishable, necessary goods that they can slowly consume over time.
Selected work in progress:
"Pathways to a Bachelor's Degree: Evaluating Transfer Policies between Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges", with Suchitra Akmanchi
"Fecundity and the Evaluation of Infant and Child Health Programs in the US", with Jenna Nobles and Marianne Bitler