Research

Repec Entry

Google Scholar

My Research Fields: anything as long as it is related to monetary policy and inflation (both theory and empirical studies)

Macroeconomics

• Firms' pricing (sales, product turnover, strategic, stickiness): JER (2024), WP(2023), JME (2023), AEJ Macro (2019), JMCB (2018), JER (2018), AEPR (2014)

• Endogenous growth with product/firm entry and exit: WP (2022), IER (2022), JJIE (2021), JME (2018), JJIE (2019)

• Price index; cost of living index: IER (2023), EL (2020), AEJ Macro (2019)

• Expectations: WP (2024), JEDC (2023), JJIE (2015), JWE (2013), JJIE (2011)

• Estimation of DSGE models: JMCB (2024), JMCB (2022), JWE (2016), JEDC (2011), JJIE (2008)

• Banks and financial accelerator: EI (2017), JWE (2016), IJCB (2013), JIE (2012), JEDC (2011)

• Liquidity trap: JJIE (2015), JEDC (2013), JWE (2013), EL (2008)

• Fiscal policy (with monetary policy including FTPL): JMCB (2022), JME (2020), JEDC (2013)

• Household decision (consumption, money demand, gamble): WP (2024), EL (2025), WP (2024),  JMCB (forthcoming), JWE (2024), JJIE (2024)

Applied game theory

• Central bank communication, auction, bubbles: JEDC (2020), JEDC (2019), EI (2014), IJCB (2010)

• Lab experiments: WP(2023), JEDC (2020)

Publications

• 1. Ueda, Kozo, "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Personal Characteristics: Evidence from Bank Transaction Data and Survey,"  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, accepted, online appendix.

  2. Aoki, Kosuke, and Kozo Ueda. "Survey of the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan," Japanese Economic Review, forthcoming.

  3. Ueda, Kozo. "The Reality of Consumption: Comparing Self-Reported and Observed Marginal Propensity to Consume," Economics Letters, 112179, 2025.

  4. Ueda, Kozo, "Household Spending Responses to Two-Time COVID-19 Payments," Japan and the World Economy, 101282, 2024.

  5. Ueda, Kozo, "Evidence on Price Stickiness in Japan," Japanese Economic Review, forthcoming, csv file.

  6. Ueda, Kozo "Effects of Bank Branch/ATM Consolidations on Cash Demand: Evidence from Bank Account Transaction Data in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,  71, 101305, 2024.

  7. Hirose, Yasuo, Hirokuni Iiboshi, Mototsugu Shintani, and Kozo Ueda, "Estimating a Behavioral New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 56(8), 1919-2223, 2024, codes. 

  8. Ueda, Kozo, Kota Watanabe, and Tsutomu Watanabe, "Household Inventory, Temporary Sales, and Price Indices,"  International Economic Review, 65(1), 217-251, 2024, readme.

  9. Shintani, Mototsugu, and Kozo Ueda, "Identifying the Source of Information Rigidities in the Expectations Formation Process," Journal of Economic, Dynamics and Control, 104653, 2023.

  10. Ueda, Kozo, "Duopolistic Competition and Monetary Policy," appendix, code, Journal of Monetary Economics, 135, 70-85, 2023.

  11. Miyakawa, Daisuke, Koki Oikawa, and Kozo Ueda, "Reallocation Effects of Monetary Policy," slide, International Economic Review, 63(2), 947-975, 2022 (WP version), codes.

  12. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, Mototsugu Shintani, and Kozo Ueda, "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(6),1637-1671, 2022, online appendix.

  13. Kobayashi, Keiichiro, and Kozo Ueda, "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(4), 779-824, 2022.

  14. Miyakawa, Daisuke, Koki Oikawa, and Kozo Ueda, "Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 59, 101118, 2021.

  15. Ueda, Kozo, "Dynamic Cost of Living Index for Storable Goods," Economics Letters, 189, 109013, 2020.

  16. Katagiri, Mitsuru, Hideki Konishi, and Kozo Ueda, "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, 111, 1-15, 2020 [the Economist, free to download].

  17. Asako, Yasushi, Yukihiko Funaki, Kozo Ueda, and Nobuyuki Uto, "(A)symmetric Information Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110, 103744, 2020 [free to download].

  18. Kawamura, Kohei, Yohei Kobashi, Masato Shizume, and Kozo Ueda, "Strategic Central Bank Communication: Discourse Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report," slide, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 100, 230-250, 2019.

  19. Ueda, Kozo, Kota Watanabe, and Tsutomu Watanabe, "Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(2), 310-347, 2019.

  20. Oikawa, Koki, and Kozo Ueda, "Short- and Long-Run Tradeoff of Monetary Easing," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 189-200, 2019.

  21. Oikawa, Koki, and Kozo Ueda, "The Optimal Inflation Rate under Schumpeterian Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, 100, 114-125, 2018 [free to download, WP version (math more straightforward to follow)].

  22. Sudo, Nao, Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe, and Tsutomu Watanabe, “Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: MacroImplications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(2-3), 449-478, 2018 [free to download].

  23. Ojima, Mayumi, Junnosuke Shino, and Kozo Ueda, "Retailer Market Concentration, Buyer-size Discounts, and Inflation Dynamics," Japanese Economic Review, 69(1), 101-127, 2018.

  24. Hirakata, Naohisa, Nao Sudo, and Kozo Ueda, "Chained Credit Contracts and Financial Accelerators," Economic Inquiry, 55(1), 565-579, 2017, online appendix, program codes.

  25. Hirakata, Naohisa, Ikuo Takei, Nao Sudo, and Kozo Ueda, "Japan’'s Financial Crises and Lost Decades," Japan and the World Economy, 40, 31-46, 2016, program codes with data.

  26. Fujiwara, Ippei, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, and Kozo Ueda, "Policy Regime Change against Chronic Deflation? Policy Option under Long-Term Liquidity Trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 37, 59-81, 2015.

  27. Sudo, Nao, Kozo Ueda, and Kota Watanabe, "Micro Price Dynamics under Japan's Lost Decades," Asian Economic Policy Review, 9(1), 44-64, 2014.

  28. Asako, Yasushi, and Kozo Ueda, "The Boy Who Cried Bubble: Public Warnings against Riding Bubbles," Economic Inquiry, 52(3), 1137-1152, 2014.

  29. Fujiwara, Ippei, and Kozo Ueda, "The Fiscal Multiplier and Spillover in a Global Liquidity Trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(7), 1264-1283, 2013.

  30. Hirakata, Naohisa, Nao Sudo, and Kozo Ueda, "Capital Injection, Monetary Policy, and Financial Accelerators," International Journal of Central Banking, 9(2), 101-145, 2013.

  31. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki, and Kozo Ueda, "Policy Commitment and Market Expectations: Lessons Learned from Survey Based Evidence under Japan's Quantitative Easing Policy," Japan and the World Economy, 25-26, 102-113, 2013.

  32. Ueda, Kozo, "Banking Globalization and International Business Cycles: Cross-Border Chained Credit Contracts and Financial Accelerators," Journal of International Economics, 86(1), 1-16, 2012 (full version), program codes.

  33. Hirakata, Naohisa, Nao Sudo, and Kozo Ueda, "Do Banking Shocks Matter for the U.S. Economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(12), 2042-2063, 2011.

  34. Ueda, Kozo, "Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations in Japan and the United States," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 24(4), 503-518, 2010, data on inflation expectations.

  35. Ueda, Kozo, "Central Bank Communication and Multiple Equilibria," International Journal of Central Banking, 6(3), 145-167, 2010.

  36. Sugo, Tomohiro, and Kozo Ueda, "Estimating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 22(4), 476-502, 2008, program codes 1&2.

  37. Sugo, Tomohiro, and Kozo Ueda, "Eliminating a Deflationary Trap through Superinertial Interest Rate Rules," Economics Letters, 100(1), 119-122, 2008.

 (Other Publications)

• 1. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, Wataru Takahashi, Yuki Teranishi, and Kozo Ueda, "Future of Central Banking under Globalization: Summary of the 2010 International Conference Organized by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the Bank of Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, 28, 1-16, 2010.

  2. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, Wataru Takahashi, and Kozo Ueda, "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation: Summary of the 2009 International Conference Organized by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the Bank of Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, 26, 1-18, 2009.

Working Papers and Ongoing Research

• 1. Miyakawa, Daisuke, Koki Oikawa, and Kozo Ueda,  "Misallocation under the Shadow of Death," 2022, submitted.

  2. Kawamura, Kohei, Yukihiko Funaki, Kozo Ueda, and Nobuyuki Uto, "Price Stickiness and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experimental Study," 2023, R&R at JEDC, slide.

  3. Ueda, Kozo, and Kota Watanabe, "Oligopolistic Competition, Price Rigidity, and Monetary Policy," 2023, submitted.

  4. Sasaki, Hinata, and Kozo Ueda, "Do Cashless Payments Stimulate Spending? Evidence from QR Code Payment Campaigns and Bank Transaction Data in Japan," 2024, submitted.

  5. Gao, Fei, and Kozo Ueda, "How Do Gamblers React to Wins? Evidence from Bank Account Data," 2024, submitted.

  6. Ueda, Kozo. "Inflation Expectations and Spending: Evidence from an Experiment and Bank Transaction Data in Japan," 2024, submitted, slide.

  7. Hirose, Yasuo, Munechika Katayama, Kozo Ueda, and Kota Watanabe. "Inflation Dynamics in Production Networks," 2025, submitted, data.

  8. Ueda, Kozo, Kota Watanabe, and Tsutomu Watanabe, "Price Setting in Online and Offline Markets: Evidence from Korea," in progress.

  9. Hirose, Yasuo, Hirokuni Iiboshi, Mototsugu Shintani, and Kozo Ueda, "Estimating QE in a DSGE Model with the Zero Lower Bound," in progress.

  10. Miyakawa, Daisuke, Koki Oikawa, and Kozo Ueda,  "Business Succession and Economic Dynamism: The Role of Aging in Resource Misallocation" in progress.

  11. Ueda, Kozo, "Money Flow Business Network," 2025, submitted.

  12. Minimum Wages and Service Prices

  13. Restaurant Prices

  14. Unemployment Insurance and Private Insurance

  15. Labor Supply After Lottery Wins

  16. Inflation Dynamics under Dynamic Beauty Contest Experiments

Selected Conference and Workshop Presentations

• 2025 Econometric Society World Congress (August 2025, planned).

• 2021 NBER Japan Project (December 2022, December 2021, July 2017)

• 2020 Econometric Society World Congress (August 2020)

• 2019 SED, St. Louis (July 2019)

• 2014 NBER EASE Conference, Tokyo (June 2014)

• 2011 AEA Annual Meeting, Denver (January 2011)

• NBER Summer Institute, Workshop on "Impulse and Propagation Mechanism," Boston (July 2010)