Research

Publications

“When Opportunity Knocks: China’s Open Door Policy and Declining Educational Attainment,” with Xuan Jiang and Jiatong Zhong,  Labour Economics. [Published Version] 

Abstract: At the end of 1978, China decided to open up to the outside world. We analyze how China’s industrialization and the immediate export growth due to the Open Door Policy change Chinese teenagers’ education decisions, which explains the education decline. We find that middle school completion rates increased and high school completion rates decreased in response to export growth. This suggests a tradeoff between education and labor market opportunities in China. These education effects are more prominent for cohorts who were younger when China’s Open Door Policy began, even though these teenagers also faced a stronger education system compared to the earlier cohorts. Future work will investigate the long-run labor market outcomes for teenagers affected by China’s Open Door Policy.

“Hidden Schooling: Endogenous Measurement Error and Bias in Education and Labor Market Experience.” Journal of Population Economics. [Online Appendix] [Published Version] 

 Abstract: Over the past four decades, nearly 25% of all American public school students repeated at least one grade in primary or secondary school, and ninth grade repeating increased four-fold. Despite this, few economists have attempted to account for grade retention when measuring education and experience, causing bias when retention is correlated with the regressor of interest. I show that changes in compulsory schooling laws (CSLs) since 1960 increased 9th grade retention rates by about 1 p.p. Because CSLs increase both grade repeating and educational attainment, compulsory schooling-based 2SLS estimates of the returns to education are positively biased by 30-35%. Additionally, grade repeating causes endogenous proxy error in labor market experience. Solely through this error, I show that the residual black-white wage gap is overstated by 10%, the wage return to a high school diploma is overstated by 11% relative to dropouts, and the labor supply gap between dropouts and high school graduates is overstated by 23%. Controlling for age instead of experience reduces this bias, suggesting age should be a standard control variable for reduced-form analysis, not experience.

“The Unexpected Effects of No Pass, No Drive Policies on High School Education,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Winter 2020. [Published Version]

Abstract: This study examines No Pass, No Drive policies -- tying teen driver's licenses to school enrollment and/or attendance. Truancy-Based policies target only attendance; truants' licenses are revoked, dropouts' are not. These policies increase the dropout rate by 1.4 to 2 percentage points. Enrollment-Based policies require enrollment and attendance; they decrease the graduation rate by 1 percentage point without affecting dropout rates. This stems from students delaying their dropout decision. Students are instead retained in the ninth grade, increasing enrollment by 2.8 percent relative to eighth grade enrollment the year prior; this reduces graduation rate estimates, without affecting the true graduation rate.

Working Papers

“Education, Crowding-out, and Black-White Employment Gaps in Youth Labor Markets: Evidence from No Pass, No Drive Policies,” updated 1/31/23, with Danqing Shen, conditionally accepted, Economic Inquiry.

Abstract: We study how educational attainment and school enrollment status differentially affect Black and White teen part-time employment in the context of No Pass, No Drive policies. These policies require that teens maintain enrollment and regular attendance in school in order to hold a driver’s license, and previous research (Barua and Vidal-Fernandez 2014; Kennedy 2020) shows they cause large increases in school enrollment and educational attainment. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that No Pass, No Drive policies cause a 5 percentage point increase in Black teen part-time employment, but do not cause an associated change in White teen employment. Rather, this increase in Black teen part-time employment is offset by a 1.7 percentage point decrease in part-time employment for White young adults (aged 18-25). Event study specifications show that these patterns are driven by long-term compositional changes in the young adult workforce. There are no immediate effects of No Pass, No Drive policies on employment, but these policies cause an increase in the educational attainment of teens, who then become less likely to accept part-time work as young adults. This evidence suggests substantial “crowding out” of Black teens by young adults in part-time work, and that efforts to promote full-time work or post-secondary school attendance for young adults may additionally aid Black teens in part-time job finding.

"ICE Agreements and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from Traffic Fatalities," with Heriberto Gonzalez Lozano and Sandra Orozco Aleman

"The Effects of Chicago's Teacher Walkouts on Youth Behavior," with Abigail Banan, Mary Kate Batistich, Jillian Carr, and Clint Harris.

Works in Progress

"Southern Lynchings and Children's Educational Attainment," with Mary Kate Batistich and Kalena Cortes. National Science Foundation Awards SES-2241522; SES-2241521; funded for $305,145.

"Causal Effects of Education on Longevity: Evidence from African Americans in Jim Crow Mississippi," with Todd Jones and Joe Price. Winner of W.E. Upjohn Institute Early Career Research Award, 2021.

"Affirmative Action with Race-Neutral Preferences"

"Lead in Drinking Water and Infant Health: Evidence from Jackson, Mississippi," with Eunsik Chang and Justine Mallatt

"Effects of Lead Discovery, Abatement, and Removal on Local Property Values," with Eunsik Chang, Yao Ma, and Justine Mallatt