Research

Journal Articles

1. Janke, K, K. C. Lee, C. Propper, K. Shields and M. Shields, Economic Conditions and Health: Local Effects, National Effect and Local Area Heterogeneity, Journal of Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, forthcoming.

2. Shields, K. and T. Tran (2022), Better Understanding how Uncertainty Impacts the Economy: Insights from Internet Search Data on the Importance of Disaggregation, Macroeconomic Dynamics, pp. 1-26.

3. Aristidou, C., Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2022), A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Predictability, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 123, Article 102601.

4. Aristidou, C., Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2022), A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination, Chudik, A., Hsiao, C. and Timmermann, A. (Ed.) Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 43A, pp. 199-215. 

5. Lee, K. C.,  K. Ong and K. Shields (2020), ‘Making Fiscal Adjustments using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries’, Special Issue Dedicated to the Memory of Mardi Dungey, The Economic Record, Vol, 96, Issue 314, pp. 294 – 313.

6. Lee, K. C.,  J. Morley, K. Shields and S. L. Tan (2020), The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Analysing Planned and Realised Fiscal Policies, The Economic Record, Vol 96, Issue 312, 87–106.

7. C. Aristidou, K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2019), ‘Evaluating the Use of Real-Time Data in Forecasting Output Levels and Recessionary Events in the USA’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol 182(1), 131-163.

8. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2018), The Role of Uncertainty, Sentiment and Cross-Country Interactions in G7 Output Dynamics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol 51(2), 391-418.

9. Greenwood-Nimmo, M. and K. Shields (2017), An Introduction to Data Cleaning using Internet Search Data, Australian Economic Review, Vol. 50(3), 363 - 372.

10. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2016), Information Rigidities and the News-Adjusted Output Gap, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 70, pp. 1-17.

11. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2016), Forecasting Global Recessions in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 32, 2, pp. 374-390.

12. Lee, K. C., J. Morley and K. Shields (2015), The Meta Taylor Rule, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vo1 47, 1, pp. 73-98.

13. Lee, K. C., N. Olekalns and K. Shields (2013), Meta Taylor Rule for the UK and Australia: Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods, The Manchester School, Vol. 81, S3, pp. 28-53.

14. Lee, K. C., N. Olekalns, K. Shields and Z. Wang (2012), The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and An Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis, The Economic Record, Volume 88, Issue 283, Pages: 495–516.

15. Fielding, D., K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2012), Does One Size Fit All? Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary, Economic Change and Restructuring, Double Special Issue in honour of Wojciech Charemza, 45 (1-2): 45-70.

16. Lee, K. C. and K. Shields (2011), Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One? North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Special Issue, 22, 43-60.

17. Fielding, D. and Shields, K. (2011), Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, 1, 79 – 103.

18. Henry, O., N Olekalns and K. Shields (2010), Economic Activity and the Stock Market: The Asymmetric Impact of Fundamental and Non-Fundamental News, Journal of Macroeconomics, 32, 1083 – 1100.

19. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee, E. Mise and K. Shields (2009), Real Time Representation of the Output Gap in the UK in the Presence of Model Uncertainty, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 25, 1, 81 – 102.

20. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee, E. Mise and K. Shields (2008) Real Time Representations of the Output Gap, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol 90, No. 4, p. 792 – 804.

21. Lee, K. C. and Shields, K. (2007), Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the use of Survey Data on Expectations, Economic Record, Vol 83, no. 262, p. 303-316.

22. Fielding, D. and K. Shields (2006). Regional Asymmetries in Monetary Transmission: The Case of South Africa, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol 28, 9, p. 965 - 979.

23. Shields, K., Olekalns, N., Henry, O. and Brooks, C. (2005). Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, pp. 362-370.

24. Fielding, D. and Shields, K. (2005). The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa. Economica, 72, pp. 682-704.

25. Fielding, D. and Shields, K. (2005). Do Currency Unions deliver more Economic Integration than Fixed Exchange Rates? Evidence from the Franc Zone and the ECCU. Journal of Development Studies, 41, pp. 1051-70.

26. Fielding, D., Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2004). The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone. Journal of African Economies, 13, pp. 488 - 517.

27. Charemza, W., Zalewska-Mitura A. and Shields, K. (2004). Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading. The European Journal of Finance, 10, pp. 329-344.

28. Grier, K., Olekalns, N., Henry, O and Shields, K. (2004). The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, pp. 551-565.

29. Henry, O. and Shields, K. (2004). Is there a Unit Root in Inflation? Journal of Macroeconomics, 26, pp. 481-500.

30. Fielding, D. and Shields, K. (2003). A Nation Divided? Price and Output Dynamics in English Regions. Economic Modelling, 20, pp. 651-77.

31. Fielding, D. and Shields, K. (2001). Is the Franc Zone an optimal currency area? Journal of Development Economics, 66, pp. 199-223.

32. Lee, K., and Shields, K. (2000). Expectations formation and business cycle fluctuations: An analysis of actual and expected output in UK manufacturing industries, 1975-1993. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62, pp. 463-490.

33. Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2000). Measuring output trends using actual and expected output in UK manufacturing, 1975-1998. The Manchester School, 68, pp. 75-91.

34. Lee, K., and Shields, K. (1998). Modelling sectoral output growth in the EU economies. Report for the European Commission, March, 185-pages.

35. Shields, K. (1997). Stock market volatility on Eastern European markets. The Manchester School, 55, pp. 118-138.

36. Shields, K. (1997). Threshold modelling of stock market volatility on Eastern European markets. Economics of Planning, 30, pp. 107-125.

Chapters

1. Garratt, A., K. C. Lee and K. Shields (2013), Global Recessions and Output Interdependencies in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7, in Filippo di Mauro and M. Hashem Pesaran (eds), The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis, Chapter 3, Oxford University Press, USA.

2. Fielding, D., Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2013), Does One Size Fit All? Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union. in Filippo di Mauro and M. Hashem Pesaran (eds), The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis, Chapter 15, Oxford University Press, USA.

3. Henry, O. T, Olekalns, N and Shields, K. (2013), Quantifying Time Variation and Asymmetry in Measures of Covariance Risk: A Simulation Approach, in Adrian R. Bell, Chris Brooks and Marcel Prokopczuk (eds), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance. Edward Elgar Publishing, UK.

4. Fielding, D., Lee, K. and Shields, K. (2005), The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, in Fielding D. (Ed), Macroeconomic Policy in the Franc Zone, p. 38-63, United Nations University: Studies in Development Economics and Policy, Palgrave Macmillan.

Conference Publications

Shields, Kalvinder 2005 "Real Time Representations of the Output Gap", Australian Conference of Economists, 2005.

Other

K. Shields and Z. Wang (2011), "The Australian Real-Time Database: A Users Manual".

Janke K., Lee K. C, Propper, C., Shields, K. and Shields, M., 13th April 2020, The impact of COVID-19 on chronic health in the UK, VoxEU (CEPR) Policy Portal, https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-chronic-health-uk

Working Papers

1. Measuring the Fiscal Multiplier when Plans Take Time to Implement (with Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kian Ong), CAMA Working Paper No 13/2019.

2. Shock Persistence, Uncertainty and News-Driven Business Cycles (with Kevin Lee and Guido Turnip).