Research

My research interests lie broadly at the intersection of human and natural systems. Specifically, I am interested in the dynamic feedbacks between human behavior and biophysical processes, and their implications for public policy. I do theoretical and empirical research on a wide range of environmental and public health topics. I use game theory and dynamic optimization methods to understand the theoretical foundations of problems and generate testable hypotheses. I use both econometric and simulation-based methods to test hypotheses and quantify policy impacts.

As a postdoc at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, I worked on several research projects. In research funded by the NIH and NSF, collaborators and I investigate the role of human behavior in the transmission of close-contact infectious disease. In "Measured voluntary avoidance behavior during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic", we use time-use data to estimate that Americans spent an additional 20-30 minutes at home (voluntary avoidance) during the peak of the 2009 A/H1N1 (swine flu) epidemic. In “Where the wild things go”, we estimate the economic costs and benefits of school closures under various time-reallocation strategies using environment-specific contact patterns derived from time-use data.  In related work, we estimate environment-specific infectivity parameters using influenza prevalence data in conjunction with empirical mixing patterns derived from time-use data.  Future work is underway to understand the relationship between activity patterns and vaccine uptake.  We hope to gain insights into the activity patterns of individuals less likely to vaccinate in order to develop novel targeting strategies.

My dissertation research focused on the incentives faced by government agents in wildfire management and international environmental policy. My research on wildfire management in the wildland urban interface argues that a strong incentive to protect threatened homes diverts resources from alternative management strategies leading to longer, larger, and more expensive wildfires. In “Wildfire hazards”, we develop a trivariate hazard (survival) model to quantify the impact of threatened homes on wildfire duration, cost, and size using micro-level dynamic panel data from over 3,000 wildfire in the US.  In addition to the policy relevant conclusions, we extend the literature on multivariate frailty models commonly used in empirical epidemiology.  In "Resource allocation under fire" we model the allocation of wildfire resources and derive a set of estimable equations to quantify the factors driving resource allocation decisions across multiple simultaneously burning fires. In more recent work, we revisit the theoretical underpinnings of wildfire management in a stochastic environment. We show that a structural threshold regression model (variant of a hazard model) can be derived directly from a stochastic control model. We illustrate the method in the context of wildfire, but show how it can be applied to any dynamic problem in which the risk of state transition drives resource allocation decisions (e.g., eutrophication, species extinction).

Other research interests include biofuel policy and the strategic use of environmental policy.

Publications

Berry, Kevin, Jude Bayham, Spencer R. Meyer, Eli P. Fenichel.  2017.  The Allocation of Time and Risk of Lyme: A Case Study in Ecosystem Service Income and Substitution Effects. Environmental and Resource Economics pp. 1-20. doi: 10.1007/s10640-017-0142-7.

Eli P. Fenichel, Joshua K. Abbott, Jude Bayham, Whitney Boone, Erin M.K. Haacker, and Lisa Pfeiffer. 2016. “Measuring the value of groundwater and other forms of natural capital” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  113 (9), 2382-2387. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1513779113.

Bayham, Jude and Eli P. Fenichel. 2016. "Capturing Household Transmission in Compartmental Models of Infectious Disease" In Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (pp. 329-340).  Springer Publishing International. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_20

Bayham, Jude, Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Quentin Gunn, and Eli P. Fenichel. 2015. “Measured Voluntary Avoidance Behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 Epidemic.” Proc. R. Soc. B 282 (1818): 20150814. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.0814.

Espínola-Arredondo, Ana, Félix Muñoz-Garcia, and Jude Bayham. 2014. “The Entry-Deterring Effects of Inflexible Regulation.” Canadian Journal of Economics 47 (1): 298–324. doi:10.1111/caje.12075.

Devadoss, Stephen, and Jude Bayham. 2013. “US Ethanol Trade Policy: Pollution Reduction or Domestic Protection.” Review of International Economics 21 (3): 568–84. doi:10.1111/roie.12056.

Devadoss, Stephen, and Jude Bayham. 2010. “Contributions of U.S. Crop Subsidies to Biofuel and Related MarketsJournal of Agricultural and Applied Economics  42 (4): 743–756.

Working Papers

Bayham, Jude, Ana Espínola-Arredondo, Félix Muñoz-Garcia. Entry Subsidies as Indirect Environmental Policy

Bayham, Jude, Kasey E. Cole, and Frank E. Bayham. Social Boundaries, Resource Depression, and Conflict: A Bioeconomic Model of Territory Formation.

Bayham, Jude and Jonathan K. Yoder. Resource Allocation Under Fire.

Bayham, Jude and Jonathan K. Yoder. Wildfire Hazards.

Bayham, Jude, Eli P. Fenichel, Nicolai V. Kuminov., and Gerardo Chowell. Where the Wild Things Go: Time Reallocation in Response to School Closures During an Epidemic.

Anderson, Sarah, Jude Bayham, Heather Hodges, and Thomas Stratmann. CNN Drops: Inequality in Agency Management